No additional NU analytics this week, but for my in-depth analysis on the Gator Bowl matchup vs. Mississippi State, check out last week’s post.

Bowl Fortnight Begins:

The Scuzz Model came out of the gates with a bang, going 5-1 to start Bowl Fortnight, including 4-2 vs the spread.  Since Christmas though, things have gone a litle downhill… yesterday was almost a disaster – had TT not come back in the end, the model would’ve been 0-fer. 

Side note — Jerry Kill seems to have righted the momentum ship again, after a tough finish to the season… a healthy Marquis Grey was a big help, as we discussed on last week’s podcast.  I say that from a national perspective though – my guess is most Goph fans are gnashing their teeth this morning over the close loss.

Sometimes it is just impossible to predict these outcomes… that’s one reason we love CFB so much.  The Hawaii bowl?  There is no reason to think SMU had any chance in that game… and then Garrett Gilbert reverted to 2009-National-Championship-form.

I will express extreme dissatisfaction with both Western Kentucky and Rutgers… y’all really screwed me over by blowing those games that you should’ve won!  I guess Cincinnati is the karmic opposite though, which saved me 34 points.  The model at one point this last week was #2 in LakeThePosts and #1 in the SolidVerbal bowl pools… now still in the top 6 or so, but looking tough to get back on top.

Here are this week’s picks:

Picks Around the Country:

Regular Season (All FBS games) Straight Up:  533-171  (75.7%)
Regular Season (All FBS games) vs. Spread: 334-275  (54.8%)
Weekly Blog Picks vs. Spread:  47-23  (67.1%)
Bowls vs. Spread: 7-7  (50%)
All Bowls – Straight up:  9-5  (64.3%)

It’s a very small sample size, but the model seems to be over-valuing the favorites this year, vs the spread.  Adjusting every line down by 2.5 improves the model to 10-4 vs the spread.  This is arbitrary and completely unfounded, but should it stick throughout bowl season, I’ll have to do some thinking on it — the guys on the Solid Verbal keep making the point that .

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, Saturday)

Oregon State (-3) vs Texas:  This was the Vegas line even before the TX suspensions were announced yesterday, while the Scuzz Model has the Beavers by 2 TDs.  The key to stopping Oregon State is forcing their QBs to throw a lot and hence make mistakes… Texas has the worst run defense in the country (when adjusted for player talent… I made that up, but you ge the point), and now has no late-game-McCoy fallback to relieve Jordan Ash.  Oh, btw, Oregon State has an AMAZING defense too.

Pinstripe Bowl (NY, Monday)

Syracuse (+4) vs West Virginia:  Remember earlier in the year when Cuse knocked off Louisville much to everyone’s surprise?  I’m getting a similar sense from this game.  Geno Smith and WVU will put up big numbers, but I don’t think they have the defense to beat Cuse by more than a FG.  I expect this to go to the wire – maybe even OT – and be decided by a 2pt conversion or a FG.  Model favors WVU by 2.

Sun Bowl (El Paso, Monday)

USC (-7.5) vs Georgia Tech:  As we discuss on this week’s podcast… there are a bunch of crazy folks out there who think that w Matt Barkley ruled out of this game, GT has a reasonable chance of winning.  Not happening people — GT is a terrible team that only made it to this bowl cause there are 2 teams above them ineligible for the post season.  USC has been highly questionable against good teams this year, but GT is not one of them, and I like the Trojans to make a statement.  Model likes USC by 10.

 Chick Fil’A Bowl (Atlanta, Monday)

LSU (-6) vs Clemson:  This game opened at -3, which would’ve been a no brainer, as a lot of folks have picked up on, pushing the line to -6.  The model still likes LSU by an additional 2 points.  I’ve been vocal on the podcast about doubting the SEC’s depth, but that doubt does not extend to LSU.  Les Miles seemed to find his gambling self midway through this year and decided to start letting his QB throw.  Also, unlike GA and FL who had cake schedules, LSU went through a vicious lineup this season.

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Tuesday)

Wisconsin (+6) vs Stanford:  The model has overvalued Wisconsin all year, but was still 50% vs the spread on the Badgers.  I think one of three things will happen in this game – Stanford wins a tight one, Wisconsin wins a tight one, or Bucky goes all Cornhusker on the Tree.  What I saw in the Pac12 title game was a Stanford D that was great on the edges, but could be run on up the gut.  Think Montee Ball liked watching that tape?  Or Melvin Gordan?  Wisconsin is not a speed rushing team like Oregon – they are a power rushing team like UCLA, and I think they can do well in this matchup.   On the other side, you have an ok Stanford offense versus an ok Wisconsin D… but this game will be won or lost by the Wisc OL – Stanford DL matchup, and I like the chances it is a close game.  The model favors Stanford by 3. 

Bonus Pick – Orange Bowl (Miami, Tuesday)

NIU (+13) vs Florida State:  Raise your hand if you feel good about FSU blowing out anyone ever??  I sure don’t.  Yes, this FSU team is really good and shouldn’t have much trouble with the NIU defense, but everytime anyone says that FSU seems to struggle.  They are the classic play-down-to-your-opponent-team.  Plus, they will have to deal with Jordan Lynch, who is prob the best QB the ‘Noles will have faced this year (Taj Boyd is the only other really good one).  Model likes FSU to win but only by 5.
Bowl Fortnight will unfortunately be over soon, but the best part of this football binge is about to be upon us.  Enjoy the appetizer of games the next few couple days before we hit the big one on Tuesday morning.  I’ll be down in Jacksonville for it – just look for the #64 jersey, or the West Lot Pirates t-shirt.  Go Cats!

As Sam so aptly quipped in our last podcast, ESPN’s bowl fortnight has begun.  After a couple of exciting games last weekend, the Scuzz Model 2-0 in confidence picks, and 1-1 vs. the spread.  Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s do some digging on the NU – Mississippi State matchup on Jan 1.

Cats vs Dogs:

I tried to explain the following on the last podcast, but may not have done a very good job.  Visual aids are always helpful too…..

The charts above show, game by game, how a team performed from an efficiency standpoint compared to the Scuzz Model’s expectations.  Let’s start with NU’s chart, which I have posted previously.  The good news for Cat fans is that the team has out-performed expectations for six weeks straight.  I think the story is validated when you consider NU’s three best games this year were probably Vanderbilt, Iowa, & MSU… and those are the games where the model shows the best performance vs. expectations.

Now consider Mississippi State.  Immediately, you see there is no pattern like we see with NU.  This may be the difference between a more upper-classmen laden team like the Bulldogs – week to week improvement is not as visible due to their experience compared to a younger team like NU.  MSU seemed to perform relatively close to expectations through the middle of the year, but had outlier performances on either end… boding well for NU is that MSU underperformed in 4 of their last 5 games, including their worst of the year in the last week of the season.

All this made me want to look at MSU’s week to week efficiencies compared to NU:

Something very interesting shows up when you compare NU and MSU’s week by week efficiencies.  In each of the last two years, NU has shown an upward trajectory in efficiency from about mid-season on (shown in the grey-shaded section).  MSU has shown the opposite – a steady drop-off in efficiency.  Will this continue into the bowl?  I don’t know, but it is clear that Northwestern teams over the last two years got better as the year progressed.  I personally believe we outperformed expectations in each of the last 4 bowls, which supports this concept as well (no wins, but again – think about the quality of those opponents, and the fact we were down one Dan Persa vs Tx Tech).

And, while we’re talking about bowls, I’ll remind you that MSU beat a pretty weak Wake Forest team in a bowl LY by only 6.  This year’s version seems to be relatively on par (at least efficiency-wise), but I argue is facing a much tougher opponent in Northwestern.

Picks Around the Country:

Regular Season (All FBS games) vs. Spread: 376-305   (55.2%)
Weekly Blog Picks vs. Spread:  44-21  (67.7%)
Bowls vs. Spread: 1-1 (50%)

A solid finish on the regular season.  Overall the model was pretty darn good on picks going 55% vs. the spread.  The blog picks were even better though (maybe I do know something about CFB… sometimes it seems like a crapshoot).  We continue with bowl picks, but this week is going to be a little boring.  The model has picked nothing but favorites through Christmas.  There are some more interesting games next week, so I’m making my 5 picks for games through the 27th.

Poinsettia Bowl (San Diego, Thursday)
BYU (-3) vs SDSU:  Model has BYU winning by 8… their D should be good enough to shut down the Aztec running attack, but if they give up a couple early scores they’ll be in trouble cause the BYU offense is borderline non-existent.

New Orleans Bowl (Saturday)
LA-Lafayette (-4) vs ECU:  I don’t like ECU at all, and the Cajun’s took Florida to the wire.  I think they are more tested, have more athleticism, and will win this one.  Model has LA-Laf by 9.

Las Vegas Bowl (Saturday)
Boise (-6) vs Wash:  I keep seeing comments about Wash having a shot cause they beat Stanford, and held USC in check.  They won’t have their 12^th man in this game though, and on the road they’re a different team altogether.  Model likes Boise by 8.

Belk Bowl (Charlotte, Thursday)
Cincinnati (-10) vs Duke:  Apparently the line on this has dropped closer to 7… I’m not buying it and neither is the Scuzz Model.  Unless the Bearcats are despondent over Butch Jones leaving (I doubt it), they should romp in this game.  Scuzz Model likes them by 3 TDs.

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, Thursday)
UCLA (Pick) vs Baylor:  This should be a really fun game to watch.  As you’ll hear us discuss on our next podcast (up tomorrow or Friday) John likes UCLA to run away, while I think Baylor has a chance if they can slow the Bruins’ running game.  The model has UCLA by 6.

More to come next week.  For now enjoy the bowls, and keep tabs on us via Twitter (@WestLotPirates) – we’ll be sharing thoughts and commentary throughout Bowl Fortnight, including updates on the standings in our Bowl Challenge.

How satisfying was that win?? Fantastic game from the Cats. The model actually favored NU to beat the spread, of which I was highly dubious… huge props to the entire team & coaches for not only bringing their A game, but also burying Illinois in the 3rd quarter when the opportunity presented itself.

I’m going to save updated NU stats & projections for when we actually have a bowl destination and opponent. For now, an update to the exhibit that shows NU’s over- or under-performance efficiency-wise in each game:

It’s key to remember that this is actual performance vs expected by the model… the numbers supported the expectation of a beat down on Saturday. Interesting that this supports some of the comments out there that Vandy was the Cats’ best win this year. I would still argue MSU, in part because the models’ expectations change from week to week. If we played Vandy now, the expectations for NU would be higher than they were in week 2.

Picks Around the Country:

All FBS games vs. Spread: 367-296 (55.4%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-3
Week3: 3-2
Week5: 3-2
Week6: 4-1
Week7: 4-1
Week8: 5-0
Week9: 3-2
Week10: 5-0
Week11: 3-2
Week12: 2-3
Week13: 2-3

Another tough week for me picking, but a good week for the model. Might need to do a better job showcasing the model in lesser hyped games, where every sportscaster has put forth an opinion. My guess is that Vegas is a lot better at setting those lines, vs the ones on the Sun Belt, etc. Not gonna shy away from the bold picks this week… here we go:

(Note – wanted to pick both NIU -6.5 and Stanford -10, but couldn’t get this posted in time)

Wisconsin (+2.5) vs Nebraska: I shouldn’t be picking this, but something tells me despite QB issues, oline issues, Neb luck, etc that the Badgers have a shot, and may just pull this off. Model calls this a pick-em. I’m thinking Nebraska can only pull so many games out of their butt. If they let Wisconsin get up early, could be a different tale than the first game. For the record, I’m officially betting on the UW defense to hold Neb in check.

Alabama (-8) vs Georgia: Lots of talk this week in favor of GA winning this game. I think media is wishful for excitement / change. Find me a team that ran well vs Bama this year. When the Dogs can’t run, they lose to Spurrier by 4 tds. The model likes Bama – favored by 14.

KState (-10.5) vs Texas: Even the younger brother of the best damn qb I’ve ever seen can’t save this mess. Remember TX can’t tackle or defend run. Also, Baylor beat KSU by throwing the ball… does anyone really think Mack will open it up w his qb situation? Model has Wildcats by 14.

Cincinnati (-4) vs UConn: This is one of those games where the numbers may not do a good job predicting the game. Scuzz Model has the Bearcats by 12, but frankly Cincy has little to play for, is on the road, and UConn is going for bowl-eligibility. Still, I don’t think UConn has enough talent, and they may still be disappointed over their rejection by the ACC (tho frankly Cincy might be in a similar state).

Instead of the NIU pick, we’ll go w a tribute to Charlie Weis, in honor of ND’s undefeated season w “Weis’s players” as some media folk commented this week. (The irony is that Weis’s qb transferred to Kansas and sucks even worse there).

West Virginia (-21.5) vs Kansas: This may seem like a big number for WVU to beat, but the Scuzz Model aint scared. Holgerson & Geno playing for pride and pts tomorrow. Model has WVU by 25 against the 2nd most hapless team in CFB (tho maybe even CU could beat KU).

I’m not going to add to the BCS prediction fervor. I’ll just say this… should NIU beat Kent State tonight, I estimate their BCS chances at 4.7-9.9%. The lower end factors in the chances that NIU wins, KState wins, Stanford wins, and Boise State loses (giving NIU a shot to get in the top 16). The upper end of that range assumes Boise State still wins, but the game stays within 1 score, such that enough voter leap NIU over the Broncos, for their win against a top 20 BCS rated team in Kent State. I for one will be pulling for whichever MAC team wins tonight to bust the BCS party when all is said and done on Sunday.

Well folks, we’re here at the end once again.  I won’t lie and say this season has lived up all my hopes, but the Cats got what was the closest thing to a signature win last weekend, so I’ll take that.  Now we need to punctuate it with a beatdown of Illinois.  Give No Quarter.

 NU Projections:

I quipped last year, that this is probably the most boring week for the Scuzz model.  The model’s real value is simulating across multiple games, rather than looking at individual ones.  Still, here are the updated projections for NU.

The model has loved the IL matchup pretty much since week 3.  As Northwestern fans, we all know better than to take this game for granted, and the team & coaches know that as well.  One of the nice things about finishing the season with your rival is the added motivation that keeps you honest even in a mismatch…  but the other side is motivated too, and they’ll be fired up to put a black mark on NU’s season.

From a numbers perspective, I wouldn’t TOUCH the 19.5 point line on this game.  Scuzz model has NU by 20, but we all know that the likelihood of that is slim.  However, I still feel great about getting a win – the Cats haven’t lost to a team they were favored to beat all year.  Even without the rivalry aspect, there is still a lot to play for with bowl matchup, Fitz’s 49^th career win, and the possibility for a 10-win season.

I also think that after the way the game was won last week, the Cats won’t tighten up if it’s close down the stretch.  I think the senior leadership on this team really proved itself last week (esp on D) and the whole squad is going to come into this week feeling real good and ready to roll. 

The fact is that Illinois has a terrible matchup with our defense.  They don’t have the passing game or talent at WR to take advantage of our biggest weakness.  They also don’t have the chops at RB to be anything more than one-dimensional once the Cats O puts up a couple scores (I don’t think they have an answer for our running game either… esp with their injuries at LB).  With all that said, a plea… don’t let up on the gas in this game.  Ever.  Bring everything we have, shove it down their throats, and Give No Quarter, until the last second ticks off the clock.

Picks Around the Country:

All FBS games vs. Spread: 334-275   (54.8%)

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2
Week6:   4-1
Week7:   4-1
Week8:   5-0
Week9:   3-2
Week10:  5-0
Week11:  3-2
Week12:  2-3

Ouch – first losing week on the blog since Week 2.  I guess that happens when you pick teams like Kansas State that are playing with destiny and liable to blow it cause they haven’t played anyone (too soon?).  That said, the model was great overall, going 58% for the week in total.  Here are this week’s picks:

Texas Tech (+2) vs Baylor:  Classic letdown spot for Baylor here… after a big win, on the road.  Frankly, the Bears got a little lucky IMO with some injuries to KState.  Also, Tech excels at throwing the ball, so they will not be phased should Nick Florence put up gaga passing stats.  Model has Tech by 2.

Iowa State (+1) vs West Virgina:  Have to admit, I’m a little surprised to see this, but the Model favors the Cyclones by 5 points in this game.  I definitely believe they can beat WVU… everyone talks about that passing offense, but my opinion is that a good run D has been able to slow WVU down.  ISU has such a run-D and plays well at home (they almost beat KState too).

Rutgers (+2) at Pitt:  In honor of the Big Ten’s crazy manifest destiny, I’m going to take Rutgers here.  The model likes the Knights by 1 over Pitt, and I see no reason they should lose their first Big East game this weekend.  Plus, it’s not like Pitt is going to conjure up some “how dare you leave the Big East” mojo to take this game.

Maryland (+23) at North Carolina:  While we’re at it… more manifest destiny picks.  This one actually gives me a bit more heartburn… am hoping for some MD pride to come through, and for the UNC players to be looking ahead to next season.  23 seems like a lot of points, and the model has UNC favored by only 19.

Notre Dame (-4) vs USC:  For the record, I hate this pick.  But the model likes ND by 8, so I am compelled to put it out there.  I do think that no Matt Barkley + no defensive line = bad day for the Trojans.  Let’s be honest, USC’s hair will be on fire in this game, but I think they will be outmatched.  Manti Te’o is essentially playing for the Heisman, and the matchup just favors ND because of their running game and defense.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

This has been one of the more entertaining Championship races, in that everyone keeps screwing up.  Unfortunately this has let the SEC back in, but in some ways I feel they need to be directly knocked off their throne, rather than kept out of the title game altogether.  The undefeated race is a little boring at this point, since OSU doesn’t really count.

Since there’s not much here, let’s look at who else has a chance, should ND fall to USC, or something crazier.  Alabama has clearly the best shot to retain their position, with a 99% chance this weekend, and then an 85% chance in the SEC title game vs. Georgia.  Oregon’s chances of getting back in the mix are predicated on Stanford losing to UCLA (35% chance)… that, plus a tough matchup vs. OSU puts the Ducks on the outside looking in.  KState similarly has too much ground to make up (Texas losing tonight didn’t help).  Florida State, however, is well positioned with a home game vs. the inconceivably 4^th ranked Florida Gators.  Should FSU win, and go on to win a heavily favored matchup with GT in the ACC title, they would be next in line should ND or the SEC falter (the latter would require Alabama or Georgia losing this weekend, and then the loser beating the other in the SEC championship).  There are also some options for Florida to back into the game as well, like Alabama did last year.  To knock the SEC out entirely… prob need GT to upset Georgia, then Georgia to beat Bama, plus an FSU win over Florida.

To sum all that up….  Likeliest Championship Matchups and estimated likelihoods:

            Notre Dame vs. Alabama (52.7%)

            Alabama vs. FSU (17.7%)

            Notre Dame vs. Georgia (8.1%)

            Alabama vs. Florida (7.5%)

            Georgia vs. FSU (2.7%)

            Georgia vs. Florida (1.1%)

            Notre Dame vs. FSU (1.0%)

For Oregon (0.1%) or Kansas State (0.8%), the only option is ND loss + SEC implosion, and then they would play probably the winner of FSU-Florida.

As you heard on the podcast this week, we are feeling good about tomorrow’s game.  The matchup pits strength on strength for both teams on both sides of the ball, so this could be a question of which team blinks first.

NU Projections:

As I mentioned, the Cats outperformed expectations this past week against Michigan (if not in our hearts and minds, then at least statistically – see the Expected vs. Actual chart below).  As such, not a lot of movement in either the MSU or IL projection.

Clearly the model loves the IL matchup, but has major reservations against MSU.  The line is Spartans by 6.5, while the model sees things more in the -5 to -3 range for MSU.  A lot of that is the impact of home field… were this game in Evanston, the model would take NU by 1.  What does that all mean??  Probably another nail-biter folks.  Though I think this game will resemble the Iowa matchup more than anything else we’ve seen in the last few weeks.

One of the things buoying my hopes last week was NU’s continued progress the prior three game in outperforming expectations.  Didn’t go as well vs. Michigan, but still a positive figure on the graph.  The real kicker this week is MSU’s defense, which is 6^th in my efficiency ratings in the country.  Their offense, on the other hand is in the triple digits.  If NU can put up 24 or more against that D, I really like our chances to come home with a  win.

Picks Around the Country:

All FBS games vs. Spread: 301-251   (54.5%)

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2
Week6:   4-1
Week7:   4-1
Week8:   5-0
Week9:   3-2
Week10:  5-0
Week11:  3-2

The model had a bad week – going below 50% in picks for just the 2^nd time all year.  I have started tracking how the model performs when only using 2012 stats, rather than the usual blended method.  On the whole, the 2012-only picks have outperformed the blended since week 7, but only by 1% overall.  Never the less, I’m going to shift to those 2012-only numbers for picks here on out.

Purdue (4.5) at Illinois:  Could my glee be any more apparent?  Model has Boilers by 10.

UCLA (+3) vs USC:  This could be the best game of the weekend (if you like Pac 12 football), or it could be a total dud.  The model favors USC but only by 1.  I think both teams will be able to score big, and it’ll come down to the wire.  UCLA’s team, fans, etc will all be jacked for this one, and I’m counting on that a little bit.

Wisconsin (-2.5) vs OSU:  Another tight spread – Scuzz Model has UW by 3, but the more I think about it, the more I like the Badgers in this game.  OSU has not looked great vs strong running games, while Wisconsin seems to have found theirs.  I also think the Badgers have been waiting 12 months for this game.  They’re gonna bring everything they have at OSU, and will have the entire stadium backing them up.

Kansas State (-10) at Baylor:  It’s true, Baylor can throw the ball and score some points.  So could Texas Tech and West Virginia, and you saw what KState did to them.  I’m convinced the only way to keep Kansas State from blowing you out is tough D, which Baylor lacks.  As such, I’m thinking the Scuzz model favoring the Wildcats by 30 isn’t all that crazy.

Stanford (+21.5) at Oregon:  I’ll probably regret this pick, but the fact is that Stanford’s offense can and should limit the margin of victory in this game with their ground game and Oregon’s depleted Dline.  This will also be the best defense Oregon has faced all year.   Scuzz model has the Ducks favored by 10.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

Allow me to quote myself (and everyone else) from last week:  “Rest assured, the season will not end with 4 (or 6) undefeated teams.”  One day later, Bama and Louisville both go down.  Will two of the remaining four (3) persist, or will they let Bama or some other one-loss SEC squad back into the fray?  Have to think all three teams are at risk this week and next, regardless of the matchups.