Scuzz Model: Orange-Crushed

How satisfying was that win?? Fantastic game from the Cats. The model actually favored NU to beat the spread, of which I was highly dubious… huge props to the entire team & coaches for not only bringing their A game, but also burying Illinois in the 3rd quarter when the opportunity presented itself.

I’m going to save updated NU stats & projections for when we actually have a bowl destination and opponent. For now, an update to the exhibit that shows NU’s over- or under-performance efficiency-wise in each game:

actu vs exp eff

It’s key to remember that this is actual performance vs expected by the model… the numbers supported the expectation of a beat down on Saturday. Interesting that this supports some of the comments out there that Vandy was the Cats’ best win this year. I would still argue MSU, in part because the models’ expectations change from week to week. If we played Vandy now, the expectations for NU would be higher than they were in week 2.

Picks Around the Country:

All FBS games vs. Spread: 367-296 (55.4%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-3
Week3: 3-2
Week5: 3-2
Week6: 4-1
Week7: 4-1
Week8: 5-0
Week9: 3-2
Week10: 5-0
Week11: 3-2
Week12: 2-3
Week13: 2-3

Another tough week for me picking, but a good week for the model. Might need to do a better job showcasing the model in lesser hyped games, where every sportscaster has put forth an opinion. My guess is that Vegas is a lot better at setting those lines, vs the ones on the Sun Belt, etc. Not gonna shy away from the bold picks this week… here we go:

(Note – wanted to pick both NIU -6.5 and Stanford -10, but couldn’t get this posted in time)

Wisconsin (+2.5) vs Nebraska: I shouldn’t be picking this, but something tells me despite QB issues, oline issues, Neb luck, etc that the Badgers have a shot, and may just pull this off. Model calls this a pick-em. I’m thinking Nebraska can only pull so many games out of their butt. If they let Wisconsin get up early, could be a different tale than the first game. For the record, I’m officially betting on the UW defense to hold Neb in check.

Alabama (-8) vs Georgia: Lots of talk this week in favor of GA winning this game. I think media is wishful for excitement / change. Find me a team that ran well vs Bama this year. When the Dogs can’t run, they lose to Spurrier by 4 tds. The model likes Bama – favored by 14.

KState (-10.5) vs Texas: Even the younger brother of the best damn qb I’ve ever seen can’t save this mess. Remember TX can’t tackle or defend run. Also, Baylor beat KSU by throwing the ball… does anyone really think Mack will open it up w his qb situation? Model has Wildcats by 14.

Cincinnati (-4) vs UConn: This is one of those games where the numbers may not do a good job predicting the game. Scuzz Model has the Bearcats by 12, but frankly Cincy has little to play for, is on the road, and UConn is going for bowl-eligibility. Still, I don’t think UConn has enough talent, and they may still be disappointed over their rejection by the ACC (tho frankly Cincy might be in a similar state).

Instead of the NIU pick, we’ll go w a tribute to Charlie Weis, in honor of ND’s undefeated season w “Weis’s players” as some media folk commented this week. (The irony is that Weis’s qb transferred to Kansas and sucks even worse there).

West Virginia (-21.5) vs Kansas: This may seem like a big number for WVU to beat, but the Scuzz Model aint scared. Holgerson & Geno playing for pride and pts tomorrow. Model has WVU by 25 against the 2nd most hapless team in CFB (tho maybe even CU could beat KU).

I’m not going to add to the BCS prediction fervor. I’ll just say this… should NIU beat Kent State tonight, I estimate their BCS chances at 4.7-9.9%. The lower end factors in the chances that NIU wins, KState wins, Stanford wins, and Boise State loses (giving NIU a shot to get in the top 16). The upper end of that range assumes Boise State still wins, but the game stays within 1 score, such that enough voter leap NIU over the Broncos, for their win against a top 20 BCS rated team in Kent State. I for one will be pulling for whichever MAC team wins tonight to bust the BCS party when all is said and done on Sunday.


Posted on November 30, 2012, in Saturday Morning Stats. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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