Author Archives: scuzz23
Scuzz Model: Last Chance
strong>#B1GCats:
Well the good news is that it doesn’t really hurt anymore. That said, this weekend’s game becomes NU’s last chance at some small sense of redemption and redirection, headed toward next year. When you compare common opponents, all of Illinois’ losses are worse than ours, save Wisconsin, but the location of that game I think is meaningful (we played in Madison, Illinois was at home). NU also matches up well against IL – defensively & with our running game. The biggest question to me, is can NU rally around itself, in this miserably disappointing season? Are the coaches & players still unified? I tend to think yes — this is a strong program, Fitz has great relationships with his players, and there is enough dislike for Illinois to be a focal point during the preparation. However, based on the last 6 weeks, there has been zero confidence running through this team or these players; on the opposite side, Illinois got their first B1G win in two and a half years last week. I’ll call this an uphill battle, even though we are favored. The model sees this as a toss-up… in my heart I know we can win, but I’ll be nauseous and uncomfortable till the final second ticks off the clock.
This Week’s Picks:
Straight up: 493-135 (78.5%)
ATS: 357-247 (59.1%)
Blog Picks: 38-17 (69.1%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1
Week 10: No Picks
Week 11: 4-0
Week 12: 3-1
Week 13: 2-3
The model was strong last week, though I picked poorly. That UCLA game in particular upset me, cause the Bruins really should’ve won / covered. I also didn’t have the stones to pick Oklahoma State or Minnesota. C’est la vie. This week the rivalries will likely hurt the model’s effectiveness, but that’s never stopped me from making picks before. Here are this week’s picks:
Kansas State (-16.5) @ Kansas: I’m saddened to think this may be the last chance to bet against Charlie Weis in college football. Model has KState by 25.
Baylor (-13) @ TCU: In the first of two very similar picks, I think Baylor comes back strong this weekend against TCU. The Frogs are a solid team, but they just don’t have the weapons, or the home field advantage to do to Baylor what OSU did. It also will be relatively nice temp-wise in DFW this weekend. Scuzz model favors the Bears by 20.
Oregon (-21.5) vs Oregon State: Usually I wouldn’t touch a rivalry game like this, but I think Oregon is frustrated, angry, and playing at home. I also think OSU lacks type of running game that has given Oregon trouble in their two losses. Model likes the Ducks by an additional 3 points.
Pittsburgh (+3) vs Miami: I never love the cold weather argument, but with the Miami Hurricanes it seems to happen every year — they go north late and struggle. This year, not only are they headed to colder climes, but Pittsburgh is a good team, and Miami is missing their best player. I like Pitt to surprise with a win in this game – the model still favors Miami, but likes Pitt to cover.
UAB (-14.5) vs Southern Miss: Last week I highlighted the model’s performance on EMU, and this week will similarly figure in on Southern Mississippi. This team is 0-11, and has covered only twice this year. The model is 10-1 picking on S. Miss, and likes UAB to win by 3 TDs this weekend.
Other Notables:
Minnesota (+15) @ Michigan State
Indiana (-20) vs Purdue
Penn State (+24.5) @ Wisconsin
Michigan (+14.5) vs Ohio State
Iowa (+3) @ Nebraska
Duke (+6.5) @ North Carolina
Florida (+27.5) vs FSU
UCLA (+3) @ USC
Texas (-4.5) vs Texas Tech
Missouri (-4) vs Texas A&M
Alabama (-11) @ Auburn
Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
As far as I’m concerned, everyone is at risk this week, save NIU (who won last night) and Fresno State who plays a weak opponent. The fact is that weird things happen during rivalry week… Are we likely to have all 5 of these teams move through to next weekend unscathed? Yes. But I bet it doesn’t happen….
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Scuzz Model: Penance
#B1GCats:
What have we done to deserve this? There were lots of small positives that came through on Saturday, but at the end of the day none of it mattered cause we’re still losing. NU nation is resigned to saying home this bowl season, which is legit giving the task ahead next week. I will offer one small piece of hope for next week… last year, after a heart breaking loss to Michigan the Cats rallied the next week to beat MSU. We are good enough to beat the Spartans but we have to get out of our own way. Lets move on to this week’s picks.
This Week’s Picks:
Straight up: 453-122 (78.8%)
ATS: 325-226 (59.0%)
Blog Picks: 36-14 (72.0%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1
Week 10: No Picks
Week 11: 4-0
Week 12: 3-1
Last week the model came back to 50%, though the blog picks continued to do well. This week, probably in part due to several 1-AA games, it was harder to decide on games. Here are this week’s picks:
Houston (-3.5) vs Cincinnati: While not the same as the Sumlin years, this Houston team is strong. They gave Louisville and UCF a tougher time than anticipated, and have been getting better as the season progresses. Cincinnati has been more erratic, and I like Houston to beat them at home by more than a FG. Scuzz model likes Houston by 11.
UCLA (+2.5) vs ASU: This Bruins team has found a resurgence of production from their throwback runningback who is playing both ways. Just to remind everyone once again… ASU doesn’t have a good run D (everyone talks about their Dline… it’s good at rushing the passer, not stopping the rusher). The model barely favors UCLA against that spread, but I think the last couple weeks make the Bruins the favorite at home.
Bowling Green (-24.5) @ Eastern Michigan: EMU is one of two teams the Scuzz Model has not missed a pick on this season. You can guess which way the model has leaned vs the spread. BGU by 33.
Michigan (+6.5) @ Iowa: As much as it pains me to write this… Michigan getting a win as they did last week, IMO, will elevate their game against Iowa. Gardner was sporting a big pout before the contest vs NU started, and I think the OT victory will energize his game somewhat. The model still favors Iowa, but only by 3.
Texas A&M (+4) vs LSU: This pick is for Lacombe. I’m buying in on Johnny Manziel basically playing to win the Heisman this weekend. LSU is a better team overall, and has the offense to keep up with A&M, but I think this goes to the wire and ends up a 1-3 point game. Model likes LSU by 3, but I think A&M wins.
Other Notables:
BC (pk) @ Maryland
UCF (-17) vs Rutgers
Miss St (-1.5) @ Arkansas
KState (-4) vs Oklahoma
Oklahoma State (+8.5) vs Baylor
Illinois (-7) @ Purdue
Vandy (+3) @ Tennessee
Nebraska (+2) @ Penn State
Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
With NIU winning again, knocking off Toledo on the road earlier in the week, Baylor is the only team really at risk this week. I guess OSU could trip over IU’s offense, but I think it’s unlikely, since they’ll score 100 points on that D. Next week obviously is the biggie, with rivalry matchups all over the place.
Scuzz Model: Keep Hope Alive
#B1GCats:
Funny how a week off can rejuvenate a frustrated fan base. NU nation has been relatively positive this week, going into a huge matchup with Michigan (huge for each team – not so much otherwise). Obviously the catastrophic nature of the Michigan team has bouyed our hope for this weekend, and rightly so — MSU dominating against Michigan on defense was one thing, but for Nebraska to follow it up the following week, with the worst run D in the Legends? Awesome. I do think it will be critical for our passing attack to be effective on Saturday, espescially if the weather is messy. There is no reason the Cats can’t win this game and move toward bowl eligibility – I’ll be keeping hope alive.
The comparison (“last week”) is from before the Nebraska game, but other than MSU, the Cats are not massively out of bounds in their chances of winning 2 more games.
This Week’s Picks:
Straight up: 410-115 (78.1%)
ATS: 300-202 (59.8%)
Blog Picks: 33-13 (71.7%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1
Week 10: No Picks
Week 11: 4-0
Last week was one of the best ever for the Scuzz Model: 73.3% ATS. There were some close calls (TX) in my picks, but I came out on the right side of that as well — especially pleased with Indiana’s beatdown of the Illini. Once again, the model is off to a good start – picking both MAC-door covers from earlier in the week (tho has a miss on Clemson). Here are this week’s picks:
Baylor (-27.5) vs Texas Tech: I’ve been a bit of a Baylor doubter all year, but no longer – this team is fantastic on both sides of the ball. Tech on the other hand has looked mediocre most of the year (despite an absurd couple weeks in the top 10). It’s going to be a beautiful day in Waco, and Baylor will take one more step toward a B12 title. Scuzz model likes Baylor by 36.
Ohio State (-33) @ Illinois: OSU needs style points and the Illini are ripe to get steamrolled. Even when OSU puts in the backups, they still are blasting inferior teams. The numbers favor Bucks by 37.
South Carolina (-5) vs Florida: Home game + must win + catastrophically injured and ineffectively coached opponent = big win. Model likes South Carolina by 12.
Penn State (-21.5) vs Purdue: Picking against the Boilers is just good sense right now. I don’t love PSU, but they are at home and I like them to bounce back from the horrific game at Minnesota. The model only slightly favors them more than the published line.
Auburn (-3.5) vs Georgia: I can’t say I feel great about this pick, but I’m playing the momentum game… Auburn is on a roll (which will abruptly end in two weeks), while Georgia just continues to struggle against some of the weaker teams in the East. The Bulldogs are slowly getting healthier, but I think the climb is too steep this week. Model has Auburn by 7.
Other Notables:
MSU (-5.5) @ Nebraska
Texas (+3) vs Oklahoma State
USC (+4) vs Stanford
Indiana (+24) @ Wisconsin
KState (-10.5) vs TCU
Miami (-3.5) @ Duke
Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
Not much drama left until we get to Championship week. Really the biggest question here is if Fresno and NIU can both win out. The model is ultra-confident in Bama and FSU closing out the regular season, and feels pretty good about OSU and Baylor too. That would be a pretty nice final four, don’t you think? Will be interesting the impact of any close OSU games down the stretch…. you could see a 1-loss team (Stanford) jump them in the BCS. Wouldn’t that get them hoppin’ mad in Columbus?!
Scuzz Model: Groundhog day
Well, I thought about leaving the blog dark for another week (last week due to travel, this week due to depression) but decided to go forward. The model has been performing well, so no reason not to write about it. Certain sections will remain dark until next week, however.
This Week’s Picks:
Straight up: 369-106 (77.7%)
ATS: 267-190 (58.4%)
Blog Picks: 29-13 (69.0%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1
There were no picks for week 10, but the model was strong both of the last two weeks overall — over 60% ATS. This week has started well, as the model picked both Stanford (+10.5) and Baylor (-15) correctly this evening. Here are this week’s picks:
Indiana (-10) vs Illinois: I have not had good luck w the Hoosiers thus far… but I like this one. IU has played much better at home, and their O is undoubtedly fantastic. Even considering IU’s terrible D, I just don’t think IL can keep up – especially once they have to abandon the run to keep up. Model likes IU by 13.
Wisconsin (-7.5) vs BYU: This is a great late-season non-con matchup. BYU is looking strong, having just dominated Boise State, but going to Madison is brutal (as I well know). The Badgers can really establish themselves as a potential BCS team w this game. Model favors UW by 8.
Texas (-6.5) @ WVU: I still don’t like picking the Longhorns, but they have figured out that they are much better at running than anything else. They should be able to run over WVU, even on the road, as the Mountaineers are lacking on both sides right now. Model likes UT by 16.
Alabama (-12.5) vs LSU: I’m on record from the podcast that LSU is the one remaining team that can challenge Alabama, given their front 7 and how their receivers match up on the outside. That said, I still think Bama wins & covers; the model likes the Tide by 20.
Other Notables:
KState (+3) @ Texas Tech
USC (-17) @ Cal
UCLA (-1) vs Arizona
Syracuse (+6) @ Maryland
Cincinnati (-9) vs SMU
Penn State (+2.5) @ Minnesota
Auburn (-7.5) @ Tennessee
ASU (-7) @ Utah
Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
Not much unexpected happened in weeks 9 and 10 (Missouri & Miami falling)… but this week we’ve already lost Oregon, and in pretty spectacular fashion. The dream matchup of Bama-FSU is on… would be fantastic if it happened, but can’t help rooting for Baylor to make some noise too after really proving themselves vs OK tonight as well. Bama and Fresno are the teams most at risk this week – FSU has Wake, Baylor has already won, and the other two are off. The big question down the stretch will be… should FSU drop a game… Buckeyes, Bears, or Cardinal (even w 1 loss)??
Scuzz Model: Reality Bites
#B1GCats:
What can I say that hasn’t been said? We were hoping for a return of the NU offense we know and love, but we got something even worse in another un-inspired performance that ended NU’s shot at going to Indy. Now fans are questioning the program’s momentum and prior results. What I see is a loss of rhythm in the play-calling, blocking, and passing attack. When Marknado and Colter are out, our running game is much less impressive similar to a few years ago – defenses are able to adjust, and shut it down; if NU finds itself in that situation again this year, they must revert to the pass-first offense we ran in 2009 w Mike Kafka – spread the field wide and throw. Many are blaming our QB, and while he certainly hasn’t been great of late Siemian produced big in games 1, 2, and 5. It’s a bit of a conundrum right now and one that the Coaches have to figure out the way past.
This week, with Colter back, I expect the Cats to play better, but still to be relatively run-focused and conservative. NU’s base offense has had success against Iowa in the past, and will need to find itself this weekend. Unfortunately, the model is no longer very optimistic regarding the Cats, and has dropped the win expectations down to 7 games. The model thinks the Cats and Hawkeyes are even teams, but gives Iowa the nod based on home field advantage.
This Week’s Picks:
Straight up: 289-84 (77.5%)
ATS: 205-152 (57.4%)
Blog Picks: 26-12 (68.4%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
It was a great week picking for the model, despite all the upsets. The model seems to be one week on, one week off… hopefully we two in a row with this week’s picks:
Georgia Tech (-10) @ Virginia: I took Duke as a 2.5 point underdog over Virginia last week… and Duke won by 13. This week the Yellow Buzz Saw comes to town, and I don’t think 10 will be enough. Model likes GT by 18.
Oregon State (+4.5) vs Stanford: Logic says that Stanford imposes their will in this game, but there is something about this OSU team… Mannion looks like a stud right now, and will be able to attack this defense. The model actually favors OSU to win, which I find hard to support, but being in Corvalis makes me think it’s a tight one.
Texas (+1) @ TCU: I feel like an idiot choosing Texas, but they were a different team against Oklahoma, and are facing a TCU team that continues to be marginal on offense with their backup QB. UT should be able to control this game throughout. Model has Texas by 3.
Baylor (-36) @ Kansas: This game may set records for annihilation… Kansas is wretched, and is facing a juggernaut in Baylor. The Bears are averaging 70… I think that will be cake for them to achieve. Not that they’ll go for 90 or anything, but I can’t see this being much closer than 50, which is what the model projects. The only hope for Weis is that devastating home field advantage in Lawrence.
Alabama (-28) vs Tennessee: Speaking of romps… Alabama is just demolishing everything in sight. The Vols are a dangerous team, as they proved the last two weeks, but Tuscaloosa is a place college football teams go to die. Model has Bama by 5 TDs.
Other Notables:
NU (+4.5) vs Iowa
Illinois (+11) vs MSU
NIU (-30) vs EMU
Duke (+13) @ VT
Wash (-24) vs Cal
UCLA (+23) @ Oregon
Missouri (-3) vs S. Carolina
Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
Whoa Nelly!!! Some big, unexpected losses last week –I suggested that Louisville was on upset alert, but didn’t really think they would go down. Also, really impressed by Florida State… as is the model – the Noles are now favored as more likely to finish undefeated than Oregon.
West Lot Pirates Podcast 