Scuzz Model: Groundhog day

Well, I thought about leaving the blog dark for another week (last week due to travel, this week due to depression) but decided to go forward. The model has been performing well, so no reason not to write about it. Certain sections will remain dark until next week, however.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 369-106 (77.7%)
ATS: 267-190 (58.4%)
Blog Picks: 29-13 (69.0%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1

There were no picks for week 10, but the model was strong both of the last two weeks overall — over 60% ATS. This week has started well, as the model picked both Stanford (+10.5) and Baylor (-15) correctly this evening. Here are this week’s picks:

Indiana (-10) vs Illinois: I have not had good luck w the Hoosiers thus far… but I like this one. IU has played much better at home, and their O is undoubtedly fantastic. Even considering IU’s terrible D, I just don’t think IL can keep up – especially once they have to abandon the run to keep up. Model likes IU by 13.

Wisconsin (-7.5) vs BYU: This is a great late-season non-con matchup. BYU is looking strong, having just dominated Boise State, but going to Madison is brutal (as I well know). The Badgers can really establish themselves as a potential BCS team w this game. Model favors UW by 8.

Texas (-6.5) @ WVU: I still don’t like picking the Longhorns, but they have figured out that they are much better at running than anything else. They should be able to run over WVU, even on the road, as the Mountaineers are lacking on both sides right now. Model likes UT by 16.

Alabama (-12.5) vs LSU: I’m on record from the podcast that LSU is the one remaining team that can challenge Alabama, given their front 7 and how their receivers match up on the outside. That said, I still think Bama wins & covers; the model likes the Tide by 20.

Other Notables:
KState (+3) @ Texas Tech
USC (-17) @ Cal
UCLA (-1) vs Arizona
Syracuse (+6) @ Maryland
Cincinnati (-9) vs SMU
Penn State (+2.5) @ Minnesota
Auburn (-7.5) @ Tennessee
ASU (-7) @ Utah

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
Not much unexpected happened in weeks 9 and 10 (Missouri & Miami falling)… but this week we’ve already lost Oregon, and in pretty spectacular fashion. The dream matchup of Bama-FSU is on… would be fantastic if it happened, but can’t help rooting for Baylor to make some noise too after really proving themselves vs OK tonight as well. Bama and Fresno are the teams most at risk this week – FSU has Wake, Baylor has already won, and the other two are off. The big question down the stretch will be… should FSU drop a game… Buckeyes, Bears, or Cardinal (even w 1 loss)??

BCS

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Posted on November 8, 2013, in Podcast. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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