Scuzz Model: Penance


What have we done to deserve this? There were lots of small positives that came through on Saturday, but at the end of the day none of it mattered cause we’re still losing. NU nation is resigned to saying home this bowl season, which is legit giving the task ahead next week. I will offer one small piece of hope for next week… last year, after a heart breaking loss to Michigan the Cats rallied the next week to beat MSU. We are good enough to beat the Spartans but we have to get out of our own way. Lets move on to this week’s picks.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 453-122 (78.8%)
ATS: 325-226 (59.0%)
Blog Picks: 36-14 (72.0%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1
Week 10: No Picks
Week 11: 4-0
Week 12: 3-1

Last week the model came back to 50%, though the blog picks continued to do well. This week, probably in part due to several 1-AA games, it was harder to decide on games. Here are this week’s picks:

Houston (-3.5) vs Cincinnati: While not the same as the Sumlin years, this Houston team is strong. They gave Louisville and UCF a tougher time than anticipated, and have been getting better as the season progresses. Cincinnati has been more erratic, and I like Houston to beat them at home by more than a FG. Scuzz model likes Houston by 11.

UCLA (+2.5) vs ASU: This Bruins team has found a resurgence of production from their throwback runningback who is playing both ways. Just to remind everyone once again… ASU doesn’t have a good run D (everyone talks about their Dline… it’s good at rushing the passer, not stopping the rusher). The model barely favors UCLA against that spread, but I think the last couple weeks make the Bruins the favorite at home.

Bowling Green (-24.5) @ Eastern Michigan: EMU is one of two teams the Scuzz Model has not missed a pick on this season. You can guess which way the model has leaned vs the spread. BGU by 33.

Michigan (+6.5) @ Iowa: As much as it pains me to write this… Michigan getting a win as they did last week, IMO, will elevate their game against Iowa. Gardner was sporting a big pout before the contest vs NU started, and I think the OT victory will energize his game somewhat. The model still favors Iowa, but only by 3.

Texas A&M (+4) vs LSU: This pick is for Lacombe. I’m buying in on Johnny Manziel basically playing to win the Heisman this weekend. LSU is a better team overall, and has the offense to keep up with A&M, but I think this goes to the wire and ends up a 1-3 point game. Model likes LSU by 3, but I think A&M wins.

Other Notables:
BC (pk) @ Maryland
UCF (-17) vs Rutgers
Miss St (-1.5) @ Arkansas
KState (-4) vs Oklahoma
Oklahoma State (+8.5) vs Baylor
Illinois (-7) @ Purdue
Vandy (+3) @ Tennessee
Nebraska (+2) @ Penn State

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
With NIU winning again, knocking off Toledo on the road earlier in the week, Baylor is the only team really at risk this week. I guess OSU could trip over IU’s offense, but I think it’s unlikely, since they’ll score 100 points on that D. Next week obviously is the biggie, with rivalry matchups all over the place.



Posted on November 21, 2013, in Saturday Morning Stats. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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