Scuzz Model: Reality Bites

#B1GCats:
What can I say that hasn’t been said? We were hoping for a return of the NU offense we know and love, but we got something even worse in another un-inspired performance that ended NU’s shot at going to Indy. Now fans are questioning the program’s momentum and prior results. What I see is a loss of rhythm in the play-calling, blocking, and passing attack. When Marknado and Colter are out, our running game is much less impressive similar to a few years ago – defenses are able to adjust, and shut it down; if NU finds itself in that situation again this year, they must revert to the pass-first offense we ran in 2009 w Mike Kafka – spread the field wide and throw. Many are blaming our QB, and while he certainly hasn’t been great of late Siemian produced big in games 1, 2, and 5. It’s a bit of a conundrum right now and one that the Coaches have to figure out the way past.

This week, with Colter back, I expect the Cats to play better, but still to be relatively run-focused and conservative. NU’s base offense has had success against Iowa in the past, and will need to find itself this weekend. Unfortunately, the model is no longer very optimistic regarding the Cats, and has dropped the win expectations down to 7 games. The model thinks the Cats and Hawkeyes are even teams, but gives Iowa the nod based on home field advantage.

Dist

Games

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 289-84 (77.5%)
ATS: 205-152 (57.4%)
Blog Picks: 26-12 (68.4%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1

It was a great week picking for the model, despite all the upsets. The model seems to be one week on, one week off… hopefully we two in a row with this week’s picks:

Georgia Tech (-10) @ Virginia: I took Duke as a 2.5 point underdog over Virginia last week… and Duke won by 13. This week the Yellow Buzz Saw comes to town, and I don’t think 10 will be enough. Model likes GT by 18.

Oregon State (+4.5) vs Stanford: Logic says that Stanford imposes their will in this game, but there is something about this OSU team… Mannion looks like a stud right now, and will be able to attack this defense. The model actually favors OSU to win, which I find hard to support, but being in Corvalis makes me think it’s a tight one.

Texas (+1) @ TCU: I feel like an idiot choosing Texas, but they were a different team against Oklahoma, and are facing a TCU team that continues to be marginal on offense with their backup QB. UT should be able to control this game throughout. Model has Texas by 3.

Baylor (-36) @ Kansas: This game may set records for annihilation… Kansas is wretched, and is facing a juggernaut in Baylor. The Bears are averaging 70… I think that will be cake for them to achieve. Not that they’ll go for 90 or anything, but I can’t see this being much closer than 50, which is what the model projects. The only hope for Weis is that devastating home field advantage in Lawrence.

Alabama (-28) vs Tennessee: Speaking of romps… Alabama is just demolishing everything in sight. The Vols are a dangerous team, as they proved the last two weeks, but Tuscaloosa is a place college football teams go to die. Model has Bama by 5 TDs.

Other Notables:
NU (+4.5) vs Iowa
Illinois (+11) vs MSU
NIU (-30) vs EMU
Duke (+13) @ VT
Wash (-24) vs Cal
UCLA (+23) @ Oregon
Missouri (-3) vs S. Carolina

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
Whoa Nelly!!! Some big, unexpected losses last week –I suggested that Louisville was on upset alert, but didn’t really think they would go down. Also, really impressed by Florida State… as is the model – the Noles are now favored as more likely to finish undefeated than Oregon.

BCS

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Posted on October 25, 2013, in Podcast. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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