Scuzz Model: Keep Hope Alive

#B1GCats:

Funny how a week off can rejuvenate a frustrated fan base. NU nation has been relatively positive this week, going into a huge matchup with Michigan (huge for each team – not so much otherwise). Obviously the catastrophic nature of the Michigan team has bouyed our hope for this weekend, and rightly so — MSU dominating against Michigan on defense was one thing, but for Nebraska to follow it up the following week, with the worst run D in the Legends? Awesome. I do think it will be critical for our passing attack to be effective on Saturday, espescially if the weather is messy. There is no reason the Cats can’t win this game and move toward bowl eligibility – I’ll be keeping hope alive.

Games

The comparison (“last week”) is from before the Nebraska game, but other than MSU, the Cats are not massively out of bounds in their chances of winning 2 more games.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 410-115 (78.1%)
ATS: 300-202 (59.8%)
Blog Picks: 33-13 (71.7%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1
Week 10: No Picks
Week 11: 4-0

Last week was one of the best ever for the Scuzz Model: 73.3% ATS. There were some close calls (TX) in my picks, but I came out on the right side of that as well — especially pleased with Indiana’s beatdown of the Illini. Once again, the model is off to a good start – picking both MAC-door covers from earlier in the week (tho has a miss on Clemson). Here are this week’s picks:

Baylor (-27.5) vs Texas Tech: I’ve been a bit of a Baylor doubter all year, but no longer – this team is fantastic on both sides of the ball. Tech on the other hand has looked mediocre most of the year (despite an absurd couple weeks in the top 10). It’s going to be a beautiful day in Waco, and Baylor will take one more step toward a B12 title. Scuzz model likes Baylor by 36.

Ohio State (-33) @ Illinois: OSU needs style points and the Illini are ripe to get steamrolled. Even when OSU puts in the backups, they still are blasting inferior teams. The numbers favor Bucks by 37.

South Carolina (-5) vs Florida: Home game + must win + catastrophically injured and ineffectively coached opponent = big win. Model likes South Carolina by 12.

Penn State (-21.5) vs Purdue: Picking against the Boilers is just good sense right now. I don’t love PSU, but they are at home and I like them to bounce back from the horrific game at Minnesota. The model only slightly favors them more than the published line.

Auburn (-3.5) vs Georgia: I can’t say I feel great about this pick, but I’m playing the momentum game… Auburn is on a roll (which will abruptly end in two weeks), while Georgia just continues to struggle against some of the weaker teams in the East. The Bulldogs are slowly getting healthier, but I think the climb is too steep this week. Model has Auburn by 7.

Other Notables:
MSU (-5.5) @ Nebraska
Texas (+3) vs Oklahoma State
USC (+4) vs Stanford
Indiana (+24) @ Wisconsin
KState (-10.5) vs TCU
Miami (-3.5) @ Duke

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
Not much drama left until we get to Championship week. Really the biggest question here is if Fresno and NIU can both win out. The model is ultra-confident in Bama and FSU closing out the regular season, and feels pretty good about OSU and Baylor too. That would be a pretty nice final four, don’t you think? Will be interesting the impact of any close OSU games down the stretch…. you could see a 1-loss team (Stanford) jump them in the BCS. Wouldn’t that get them hoppin’ mad in Columbus?!

BCS

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Posted on November 15, 2013, in Saturday Morning Stats. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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