West Lot Pirates Podcast

Big Ten Scenarios:

Northwestern’s B1G title picture is not rosy.  The problem:  Nebraska.  They need to lose twice and the Cats need to win out.  Only about 2% of the time does the model return a scenario where the Cats finish ahead of Nebraska in the Legends.  However, you’ll recall from my post earlier in the week that the model also only gives NU a 15% chance of beating Michigan.  If we limit to scenarios where the Cats win 6 conference games (i.e. win out) there is a 41% chance of finishing higher than Nebraska.  As such, our fate may not entirely be in our hands, but is within our grasp.

Here are the probabilities for each team to finish in first or tied for first in the two divisions:

No real surprises other than the terrible state Michigan State is in.  They are particularly hurt by the loss to Michigan, who would have to lose twice more for State to overcome them (whereas we only need to beat Michigan and win out).  On the other side, OSU is a lock to pull out that division, while Wisconsin still looks like the best bet for second place despite needing to travel to PSU and host the Buckeyes.  With their QB Stave out now, I think the Badgers will be hard pressed to pull off anything more than  a backdoor trip to the B1G Title game.

Lastly, let’s look at how our favorites – Nebraska and Wisconsin – shape up for the rest of the year, game by game:

 This really highlights the importance of the MSU-Nebraska game this weekend, from NU’s perspective.  This week and next are the two key weeks for Nebraska to lose games.  Could they bomb against either MN or Iowa?  Sure, but the likelihood is not good.  Wisconsin on the other hand, really just needs to beat Indiana.  They won’t feel good about themselves losing to either PSU or OSU especially, but they’ll have another division title to ease that pain.

Picks Around the Country:

All games vs. Spread: 246-195

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2
Week6:   4-1
Week7:   4-1
Week8:   5-0
Week9:   3-2

An alright week last week – big whiff on the Michigan-Nebraska game… wish I had been bold enough to take Ole Miss on the road vs. Arkansas.  Here are this week’s picks (note – I didn’t include the Oregon-USC game cause I think the Ducks will smash the Trojans, and that’s at odds w the Scuzz model):

UCLA (-3) vs Arizona:  Letdown alert!  The Wildcats are coming off their biggest win in years to travel to meet the Bruins who are really not a bad team at all.  Scuzz model has UCLA by 7.

Ohio State (-24) vs Illinois:  I just love to pick against Illinois.  They could lose this game by 50.  Don’t think Urban Meyer is above that.  The model likes OSU by 27… I just don’t see how IL scores any points or stops OSU in Columbus, with or without Braxton Miller.

Pitt (+18.5) at Notre Dame:  Similar to Arizona, the Irish are due for a down week after a huge win.  They also have had trouble scoring big this year, and now are supposed to beat Pittsburgh by more than 2 TDs?  Seems like a stretch.

San Jose State (-16.5) at Idaho:  I know nothing about these teams, other than the Spartans are 6-2 and Idaho is one of the worst teams in FBS.  Scuzz model says SJSU by 27.

LSU (+8) vs Alabama:  This line has moved even further toward the Tide by now, and while I believe Bama could beat the Kansas City Chiefs (who own da Chiefs?), I also think this is going to be a darn tough game for them to win by 8.  Still like them to pull this out, despite whatever smoke and mirrors Les Miles employs on Saturday, but think LSU will keep it close.

Nice little win this past weekend.  I think we can all identify some areas for improvement, but I’m pleased the game didn’t come down to the final play, and the Cats were in Victory Formation for the end.  As you’ll hear on this week’s podcast, my biggest concern for this team in the upcoming weeks is finding that killer instinct.  They got a lot closer vs. Iowa, but were derailed by a fumble in the red zone.  Since we have a week off, I thought I’d get the Scuzz Model update out early, so I can concentrate on some Big Ten Championship scenarios later in the week.

NU Projections:

Big boost to the Cats’ efficiency this week.  Both the D and O rates are improved (aided by wins from MN, IU, BC, etc).  As a result the game-by-game probabilities have improved for all three remaining contests – even MSU, despite their big win over the weekend:

Fitz’s hopes of tying the NU career wins record in the regular season are still alive… the Cats will be underdogs against Michigan, and probably against MSU as well, but I like their chances vs. the Spartans – unlike in years past this is a good matchup for NU after the talent lost at the WR and QB positions for Sparty.  Michigan has been so up and down it’s hard to know what to expect from them;  I figure being in Ann Arbor will give them a boost, regardless of how they play this week vs MN. 

Season to Date:

Let’s recap the season by looking at NU’s actual vs. expected efficiency performance by week.  What is most compelling is that NU has increased their efficiency output against the Scuzz model’s expectations each week since the Penn State game.

If you break it down by offense and defense, not surprisingly to any of us, the defense has outperformed the offense.  We can hope that the resurgence we saw last week with Kain Colter at the helm will continue as we hit the home stretch.  Health in the secondary would be a boon to this team as well – good timing on our bye week in my opinion with two of the toughest games coming up.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt: 

Big upheaval this past week… now we wait for the remaining contenders to shoot themselves in the foot!  Two more big games with LSU-Bama and USC-Oregon this weekend, but I really like the favorites to advance past both of those challenges.  Given that there is a distinct possibility the top 5 teams could all finish undefeated… could the new 2014 BCS playoff be obsolete two years before its first unveiling??!!  In all likelihood, 2-3 of these undefeated teams will lose, but I’ll be pulling for all 5 to make it out unscathed (and no, Louisville doesn’t count… their schedule / profile is clearly inferior to the rest).  I still like K-State as the favorite to stay undefeated – though I can report that Notre Dame is quite good, and totally capable as well.  Really wish we could have a playoff game of Kline vs Te’o for the Heisman and the chance to play Alabama (methinks the game against Bama could lack for excitment).

More later in the week, including picks for the weekend and more on the Cats and their chances in the Legends division.

My moniker last week was a disaster, as the Cats repeated their Penn State performance, and not last year’s Nebraska performance.   I am just going to focus on looking forward this week, rather than rehash anything else…. time to march onward. 

NU Projections:

From an efficiency standpoint, little damage was done to NU’s game by game projections – the Iowa game jumps to 65% likely win, due mostly to Iowa’s hideous performance last week.  NU’s other games are largely unchanged.

As Jonathan Hodges from Hail To Purple mentioned last week, achieving 9 wins this year would tie Fitz with the career win mark for NU.  Looking less likely after the loss last week, though I think the model is underrating our chances vs. Michigan State –  I still feel really good about the possibility for an 8 win season… I know we’re all disappointed right now cause we think 8 wins should already be in the bag, but that would still be quite an improvement from last year’s record and on par with expectations coming into this season.

NU vs. Iowa

Rivalry Week!!!  Wait… it’s not?  Oh yeah, we just can’t stand Iowa.  This matchup has been a great one for the last several years, and not just because NU has had success against the Hawkeyes.  As you can see below, these two teams have been well matched from a statistical perspective too (the last time one was really significantly better was in the ’09 season when Woot ended Iowa’s season).  This year, Iowa is unexpectantly struggling on offense, much like our Cats.  That said, their offense minus a healthy Mark Weisman is even further diminished; NU should be able to stop that run game without sacrificing pass coverage, unlike against Nebraska.  The big question will be can Vandenberg take advantage of the banged up Northwestern secondary?  In our pre-season preview we talked about how Iowa really lacks a big receiving threat this year after Marvin McNutt’s graduation.   That seems to bear out when you look at Vandenberg’s stats:  his completion percentage is close to last year, but TDs and yards-per-attempt are both significantly down.   Remember, the Cats lost at Iowa in ‘11, but take away a pick-6, and one of those mis-communications and it’s a different story.   If we can establish our option running game, I fully expect the Cats to prevail.  The line is NU by 6, but the Scuzz model expects a tight one – favoring the Cats by only 2.

Picks Around the Country:

All games vs. Spread: 219-168

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2
Week6:   4-1
Week7:   4-1
Week8:   5-0

The model had its first perfect week on the blog!  Picking against favorites worked very well.  I won’t lie, this week is looking tough… I had trouble finding a lot of common ground with the model.  Here are this week’s picks:

Indiana (+1.5) at Illinois:   The model only disagrees with this line by a half-point,  but it’s the right direction.  I have zero faith in the Illini.  Less than zero.  Indiana’s performance the last couple weeks on offense makes me think they can roll Illinois, even on the road and after IL’s bye.

BYU (+2.5) at Georgia Tech:  The Cougers showed a tough run-defense last week against Notre Dame, while Georgia Tech has looked bad this year, and don’t have much of a pass attack.  Model likes BYU by 1.

Notre Dame (+10) at Oklahoma:  I have a hard time believing that the Notre Dame defense falters bad enough to lose by 10 against Oklahoma.  The model favors OU by 4, which I think is a little more fair given the Sooners’ body of work thus far.  However, if the last two games were more than just bad opponents (i.e. if Landry Jones has suddenly found his Heisman-hype form) then the Irish, and this pick, could be in trouble.

Ohio (-9) at Miami-Ohio:  The Bobcats and Frank Solich continue their march with a trip to Miami of Ohio.  This in-state rivalry could be a bad pick for a blow-out, but Ohio is on fire and Miami has looked real bad against real teams (sorry Akron).  The Scuzz Model picks them by 15.

Michigan (+2) at Nebraska:  I promise this is not a sour-grapes pick.  As bad as Michigan looked last week, I like how they match up against the Huskers.  If the Wolverines actually use their mobile quarterback, they should be able to break down Nebraska in ways that they couldn’t against MSU.  Model has Michigan by 6.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

Another one down… Cincinnati falls off the truck (inexplicably, I might add).  With their win last week, K-State is looking like the odds-on favorite to meet Alabama for the title.  They still have a couple tough matchups, but given the inconsistency of TCU’s defense and the absence of any defense from Texas, the Wildcats just need to avoid an Oklahoma-State-type collapse (too soon?).  However, should Oregon or Notre Dame avoid a blemish, I have to think K-State would get leapfrogged in the BCS standings.