Scuzz Model: Underdogs Once More
A great bye weekend to watch other games, but looking forward to watching the Cats tee off against Michigan. Unfortunately the Scuzz Model was derailed by the stomach flu this week, so we have a late and abbreviated post.
Very little change from last week as the Cats did not play. However, Michigan and MSU both underperformed slightly, leading to gains for NU. The model sees only a 16% chance against the Wolverines this weekend… but I like NU to win a little more often than one in six here. I mentioned on the podcast that the Scuzz Model has Michigan favored by 12… I definitely like NU to cover, particularly when you consider that the Scuzz Model still bakes in a little of last year’s Michigan (much better) and NU (a bit worse). Adjusting the model to only consider 2012 action (a statistical model I’m not entirely sure when to use yet), the model only favors Michigan by 7.
The predicted wins pretty much speak for themselves at this point. 40% chance to break 7/8 wins (i.e. expectations coming into this year). I personally won’t be disappointed with 8 (even though I think we could have reached 10 or 11), but it will sting a big if we can’t get one this weekend or next.
Picks Around the Country:
All games vs. Spread: 276-219 (55.8%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-3
Another perfect week for the model’s picks! Though overall the model was only 50%, still +57 games on the year. Here are this week’s picks:
Wisconsin (-7) at Indiana: Sorry Hoosiers… unless your basketball crowd camps out overnight and causes havoc for Wisconsin’s Oline & QB with noise, the Badgers are going to end the dream. Scuzz model has UW by 20.
Syracuse (+3) vs Louisville: Hearing a lot out there about this matchup, and the story basically goes UL hasn’t played anyone, has needed some tight escapes, and gets a tough opponent in a tough location. Model likes UL by only 2, so this is a narrow pick.
Mississippi State (+17.0) at LSU: Everyone knows I think a lot of the LSU fans, and that I think that team is dumb to schedule any home games prior to 7pm. But that stadium is going to be flat on Saturday. After what almost happened last week? And LSU’s team is going to be flat… and they aren’t playing Kentucky. The model well favors the Tigers, but I think ole’ Zach Mettenberger reverts to form, and MSU keeps it close.
Miami (+2) at Virginia: Am I missing something? Miami is not good… but neither is Virginia. The difference is Miami has some much better players. Scuzz model says Canes by 4.
Penn State (+8.5) at Nebraska: While the model favors the Huskers this week, it’s only by 3 points. I don’t think Neb has seen a defense like this yet – the closest they came was last week vs. MSU, and they should’ve lost. This week I think Penn State should put more pressure offensively on Nebraska, and keep this one close (that’s how Neb is winning most of their games anyway).
The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
Absolutely no change this past week, as everything stayed the same. I quipped this was one “crazy week in college football, where once the dust settled, nothing actually happened”. Rest assured, the season will not end with 4 (or 6) undefeated teams.