West Lot Pirates Podcast

This week we get NU’s first big test of the conference season – the Nittany Lions.  I never thought this would be an easy game in 2012, especially being on the road;  nor did I expect PSU to be a threat to win the leaders division at any point this year.   This opponent has been super frustrating to play for the last 3 years (in particular) for NU fans.  The Cats have dominated the first halves of the last two games, only to fall flat after the intermission.   The Scuzz Model has some evidence as to why this year may be different.

NU Projections:

We’ll start with this week’s NU projection chart, which show small improvement from last week’s numbers.  Not a lot of surprises, given last week’s results on the field.  Frankly, the biggest surprise is how much the W% vs Penn State has dropped (more on that in a bit):

The distribution chart now shows 9 wins almost as often as 7, with an 8-4 season occurring one-third of the time.   Right now the Scuzz model projects both Michigan and Nebraska to finish with 5 or 6 conference wins… a 9-3 record from NU could be enough to share the division title.

NU vs. Penn State

When I saw the game-by-game chart for this week, I was surprised by Penn State.  I knew they had played a great game against Illinois, but at the same time… Illinois sucks.  Three of PSU’s five TDs came on drives that started at the PSU 40 or better.  IL also threw a pick on the 1 yard line.  That one play alone would’ve taken some of the edge off Penn State’s lofty efficiency rating this week (unfortunately the Scuzz model can’t adjust for everything).

To understand this better, I took a look at how PSU’s expected winning percentage has fluxuated over the last two years, and shown it side-by-side with NU’s winning percentage:

Look at how consistent PSU was during the middle portion of last year: hardly any shift for 8 weeks running.  We really dinged them in the pre-season adjustments this year, but that was warranted based on how PSU played in weeks 1 and 2 – right about at the predicted level.  It wasn’t until weeks 3 (Temple) and 4 (Navy) that PSU’s profile started to elevate and stabilize.  Then you see the spike last week for the Illinois game.  If I were a betting man, I would bet this is point represents an overstatement of Penn State’s power.  Illinois was so bad, and PSU dominated them so completely – given all the evidence we have about Penn State (new head coach, mediocre QB, depth issues, key skill position departures),  I have to think the data points from the prior two weeks are more indicative of how this team will play on a week to week basis.

PSU should maybe be on par with Northwestern, who has been ultra-consistent since the Vanderbilt game.  The other thing to point out on this chart… look at how far apart NU and Penn State were when they played one another last year.   It was the low-point for NU in 2011 and there is no doubt in mind that the current incarnation of NU football is far superior to what we watched last time these two teams played.  The possibility that these two teams are much closer statistically than the last two times they met gives me hope that NU can break the mold against the Lions this year.

Picks Around the Country:

All games vs. Spread: 101-90

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2

The model rebounded in week 5 with a decent showing.  Kinda miffed that WVU couldn’t come through for me thought…  love Geno Smith and that crazy Air Raid offense, but man they really have no defense.  Here are this week’s picks:

Kansas State (-23.5) vs Kansas:   I have been no fan of KSU going into this year, but the model is no fan of Kansas.  Dedicating this pick to Charlie Weis.

Texas A&M (-8.5) at Mississippi:   This week I listened to all the ESPN, CBS, and Grantland guys talk about how A&M was running the best backyard offense they’ve ever seen.  Scuzz model likes that offense to outscore Mississippi by 20+.

Rutgers (-8) vs Connecticut:  The Scarlet Knights are quietly putting together a good year.  This week they get a weak Connecticut team and are favored by 8.  Unlike a lot of other teams out there, Rutgers can play D;  they can also dominate time of possession with their running game.  Model has Rutgers by 10.

Ohio State (-4.5) vs Nebraska:  My only hesitation with this pick, is the fragility of Braxton Miller.  He got really beat-up last week, and watching Nebraska’s LBs hit the UW quarterback makes me wonder if Braxton plays all four quarters.  Still, Nebraska faces the best team they’ve played to date on the road where their QB has not performed well and against a team that matches up well against them.   Model has the Buckeyes by a TD.

Wisconsin (-11.5) vs Illinois:  I am leery to make this pick, because the Scuzz model relies so much on the prior year’s stats to project the first third of a new season.  Even still, Wisconsin should dominate Illinois this weekend.  They have the defense to shut down the anemic IL attack, and IL’s defense has shown zero ability to stop anybody other than Western Michigan this year.  The model has the Badgers by 20.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

Little change from last week, though Cincinnati enters the fray after their surprising win over Virginia Tech.  At risk this week:  Georgia, Notre Dame, & LSU.  Should either the former or the latter lose, the team that beats them (S. Car,  Fla) will probably take their place in this ranking next week.  Note the shift in Alabama’s chances is primarily a result of Texas A&M’s rise in efficiency after last week.  Do you find West Virginia conspicuous by their absence?  They are 50-50 in a bunch of remaining B12 game (dogs vs Texas and OU), mostly on account of their D.  A big win this weekend could land them on next week’s list however.

The Scuzz Model is back this week, just in time to preview the Big Ten Conference Season!  Not a whole lot to say about last week’s NU win (though a great thing in and of itself), so we’ll focus on looking forward.

Before I get to the usual array of projections, I wanted to highlight an adjustment I’ve just baked into the model.  It’s pertinent because as I was looking at which Big Ten teams the model sees as likely division champs, I was surprised to see Michigan still highly rated.  Some digging has led me to discover the following:

UMass Mess

As I’ve mentioned previously, I do not include results from 1-AA matchups (FCS) in the Scuzz model, primarily because those games really skew ratings;  all other FBS teams do get counted though.  This has created a small issue this year, due to the complete blow-out nature of every game Massachusetts has played.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy UMass and their top-notch college band have made the jump to football’s highest division, but their output on the field is screwing up my model.  This is exacerbated because both Michigan and Indiana have played UMass, and won by 40+ points (Connecticut crushed the Minutemen as well, but it’s the B1G teams I really care about for obvious reasons).  Look at how much the Wolverines and Hoosiers expected winning percentage increased on account of the UMass game:

The Indiana result in particular is really jarring.  I’ve decided to treat these matchups like 1-AA games and exclude them from the model.  As a result, NU gets a slight boost in the expected outcome against both of these squads:

NU Projections:

Note that “last week” actually represents the projections I shared two weeks ago.  You can see in the game-by-game that Michigan, Indiana, MSU, and Illinois especially are all looking a little better in terms of NU’s likelihood of winning.  Unfortunately a lot of this is being wiped out by improved results from PSU and Minnesota, which look much tougher statistically after the last two weeks.  As a result, the wins distribution has moved very little from last time out:  some slight increases in the 7 and 8 win columns, but nothing significant.

While a win this week would likely push NU into the official Top 25 rankings, it will probably have little impact on the Scuzz model’s expectations:  the Wildcats are a huge favorite, as you can see above.  On the podcast this week, John talked about how bad IU’s defense has been… here you can see it statistically – essentially a straight line from week 10 last year, though today, over 310 pts allowed per 100 possessions.  The Scuzz model average for all teams is around 220, so IU is about 30% worse than average.

You can also see that now with the UMass game excluded, IU’s profile drops in that 3^rd week of 2012 (rather than an increase, we see the offense drop off)…. That is due to an adjustment I made to account for the Tre Roberson injury.  Interestingly enough, the following week against Ball State, the offense performed pretty much as the Roberson-adjusted data point would indicate.

This graph tells you one last thing:  IU’s defense gives up almost twice as many points per possession as its offense is able to score.  This is fantastic news for a Cats team who will force IU to throw the ball with their 2^nd and 3^rd string QBs.

Big Ten Predictions:

To preview the conference overall, I’ve prepared just a couple quick charts to indicate the Scuzz Models picks in each division.  First the leaders, where the model still really believes in Wisconsin.  Some of this is the way I blend efficiencies from the prior year, but some of it is also due to the Badger defense, which is outpacing last year’s squad enough to take some of the edge off the plummeting UW offense.  OSU is a strong second, with little chance for the other four to pull even at this stage.

The Legends division still resembles the free-for-all we thought it would be.  Michigan and Nebraska are neck and neck, but 5 of the 6 teams have reasonable chances of finishing first.  I expect that a Minnesota win this week vs. Iowa would start to move the needle for the Gophers, who have not performed well enough yet to outweigh last year’s disaster ratings.

Picks Around the Country: 

All games vs. Spread: 93-85 

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2

Had to take week 4 off for some travel, but maybe it was a good thing… the model was not great that week.  Still over 50% for the year vs. the spread though.  Here are this week’s picks:

Wisconsin (+11.5) at Nebraska:   The model has been over estimating the Badgers all year, but this line befuddles me.  Wisconsin lost a close game on the road to Oregon State, while Nebraska got crunched by UCLA (who subsequently lost to Oregon St).  The communitive property of college football tells us these teams are not separated by two scores (really, we have one good rushing team, one good defensive team, and a lot of question marks, which leads me to think close low scoring affair… or Wisc wakes up and blows them out).  Scuzz model favors Wisc by 1.

Texas (-2) at Oklahoma State:  I don’t love this pick because it means trusting the Longhorns, but at the same time Arizona was able to slow down and outscore OSU (and then got shutout and lapped by the Ducks).  I know OSU has a good home field advantage, but I think Texas is due in this series (and say what you will about their QB situation, they have a strong D).  Model likes UT by 7.  (I’ve just learned UT will be missing 4 players including the kicker… still rolling w this pick though).

West Virgina (-11.5) vs. Baylor:   WVU has not stopped on offense.  The “air raid” is in full effect, and Geno Smith looks awesome.  On the other side is Baylor, who lost so much talent but has benefited thus far from weaker matchups.  I and the model expect WVU to smash them in this game. 

UTSA (-1) at New Mexico State:  the Road-Runners are unproven yet at the FBS level, but they are probably the best of the 4 teams that moved up from FCS this year (currently 4-0).  New Mexico State is the worst team in FBS.  Scuzz model loves UTSA (mostly because they have a ton of returning players)… seems reasonable that they have a shot to win.

Oregon (-28) at Washington State:  Uh… has anyone been watching Oregon?  Their O is still explosive and their D is better than ever. The model says 36 points and I don’t think that’s enough.  Oh and Wash St. lost to Colorado last week.   At home.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt: 

Two more weeks and two more major competitors gone.  USC and now Oklahoma have joined the one-loss crowd and two new teams have joined this weekly tracker – Notre Dame and Louisiana Tech.  The story here though is Alabama… 75% chance of going undefeated now, which frankly doesn’t seem off – they of course have tough games, but nobody appears to be in the same league as them (and LSU’s tight win over Auburn has really hurt their profile).  As for Alabama’s potential opponent?  I like Florida State’s chances – they’ve already beaten Clemson, and while the ‘Noles have tough games against Virginia Tech and Florida, the other prime candidates have much tougher matchups;  Oregon would be the one team you could argue has an easier road, especially considering Stanford’s loss last night.