West Lot Pirates Podcast

#B1GCats:
What can I say that hasn’t been said? We were hoping for a return of the NU offense we know and love, but we got something even worse in another un-inspired performance that ended NU’s shot at going to Indy. Now fans are questioning the program’s momentum and prior results. What I see is a loss of rhythm in the play-calling, blocking, and passing attack. When Marknado and Colter are out, our running game is much less impressive similar to a few years ago – defenses are able to adjust, and shut it down; if NU finds itself in that situation again this year, they must revert to the pass-first offense we ran in 2009 w Mike Kafka – spread the field wide and throw. Many are blaming our QB, and while he certainly hasn’t been great of late Siemian produced big in games 1, 2, and 5. It’s a bit of a conundrum right now and one that the Coaches have to figure out the way past.

This week, with Colter back, I expect the Cats to play better, but still to be relatively run-focused and conservative. NU’s base offense has had success against Iowa in the past, and will need to find itself this weekend. Unfortunately, the model is no longer very optimistic regarding the Cats, and has dropped the win expectations down to 7 games. The model thinks the Cats and Hawkeyes are even teams, but gives Iowa the nod based on home field advantage.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 289-84 (77.5%)
ATS: 205-152 (57.4%)
Blog Picks: 26-12 (68.4%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1

It was a great week picking for the model, despite all the upsets. The model seems to be one week on, one week off… hopefully we two in a row with this week’s picks:

Georgia Tech (-10) @ Virginia: I took Duke as a 2.5 point underdog over Virginia last week… and Duke won by 13. This week the Yellow Buzz Saw comes to town, and I don’t think 10 will be enough. Model likes GT by 18.

Oregon State (+4.5) vs Stanford: Logic says that Stanford imposes their will in this game, but there is something about this OSU team… Mannion looks like a stud right now, and will be able to attack this defense. The model actually favors OSU to win, which I find hard to support, but being in Corvalis makes me think it’s a tight one.

Texas (+1) @ TCU: I feel like an idiot choosing Texas, but they were a different team against Oklahoma, and are facing a TCU team that continues to be marginal on offense with their backup QB. UT should be able to control this game throughout. Model has Texas by 3.

Baylor (-36) @ Kansas: This game may set records for annihilation… Kansas is wretched, and is facing a juggernaut in Baylor. The Bears are averaging 70… I think that will be cake for them to achieve. Not that they’ll go for 90 or anything, but I can’t see this being much closer than 50, which is what the model projects. The only hope for Weis is that devastating home field advantage in Lawrence.

Alabama (-28) vs Tennessee: Speaking of romps… Alabama is just demolishing everything in sight. The Vols are a dangerous team, as they proved the last two weeks, but Tuscaloosa is a place college football teams go to die. Model has Bama by 5 TDs.

Other Notables:
NU (+4.5) vs Iowa
Illinois (+11) vs MSU
NIU (-30) vs EMU
Duke (+13) @ VT
Wash (-24) vs Cal
UCLA (+23) @ Oregon
Missouri (-3) vs S. Carolina

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
Whoa Nelly!!! Some big, unexpected losses last week –I suggested that Louisville was on upset alert, but didn’t really think they would go down. Also, really impressed by Florida State… as is the model – the Noles are now favored as more likely to finish undefeated than Oregon.

#B1GCats:
So that was painful; especially because I watched it in person, surrounded by thousands of gleeful cheese-heads. That being said, with one exception, I’m content to write off that game as an aberration. The exception? NU’s red-zone offense. This issue seemed finally put to bed last year, mostly by Colter’s excellent decision making, but even the read-option isn’t getting it done inside the 10 this year. That won’t fly in the B1G – and if this team is going to regain the respect they had coming out of the OSU game, they have to get better when they have a chance for seven.

Outside of that flaw, I thought the Cats’ defense was phenomenal for about a quarter and a half. They tackled well, kept the RBs in front of them, applied pressure to Stave, and were disruptive in creating turnovers. When your offense perpetually goes 3-and-out, and can’t get you any meaningful field position, things start to break down, and that’s exactly what happened to the defense on Saturday. Yes, they got pushed around by an awesome offensive line – but who didn’t think that would happen going into the game? Frankly, who didn’t think that would happen against OSU too? The value proposition of the team is bend-but-don’t-break D that forces turnovers, and a dynamic ball-control-multiple offense who’s versatility and execution make it near impossible to defend, and by creating and sustaining long drives, take some pressure off the D.

The defense was living that definition, but just got hung out to dry by an offense that was stalled by poor execution from the players, and little-to-no adjustment or creativity from the coaches. Luckily, the Cats come home this week (I’m really happy they don’t have to go on the road again this week) against a clearly weak team in Minnesota which even a vanilla attack should be able to score against. Don’t bet on a blowout though – it’s just not how this team rolls – unless we really steamroll them on the ground, I think the team will keep it simple this week and try to execute the basics more than anything else.

Not surprisingly, NU’s statistical profile took a huge hit this week. 7-8 wins expected, and a lower winning percentage in every matchup here on out. According to the model, last week was the worst matchup for NU, and this next game is the best; this is the time for the Cats to turn-around the drop off from the last couple games, and build up to a strong finish.

Last #B1G comment… I’m fascinated with how the home teams (other than Purdue) played on Saturday… Wisconsin looked much better than previous viewings (@ASU, @OSU), Penn State beats Michigan after getting blasted at Indiana last week, and then that same IU team was utterly dominated at MSU. The takeaway for me? Going on the road in this conference is damn hard (again, except for Purdue).

This Week’s Picks:
Straight up: 254-72 (77.9%)
ATS: 179-133 (57.4%)

Blog Picks: 22-11 (66.7%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1 (+ 1 push)
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2

Much better for me than the model last week, as I was over .500 – the model did get Texas (+14) and Penn State (+3) right though. Here are this week’s picks:

Louisville (-10.5) vs Central Florida: We know this UCF team can play, but I think Louisville knows this is their last chance to appeal to voters against a team with a big win. Definitely an upset alert going into the day, but I think the UL defense is awesome and underrated. That + Bridgewater = victory. Scuzz model likes the Cardinals by 12.

Duke (+2.5) @ Virginia: Here’s the word – Duke is decent this year, and after dominating an ok Navy team, I was pretty surprised to see them as underdogs on the road this week. Scuzz Model likes Duke-Dukity-Duke by 5.

Oregon State (-10.5) @ Cal: I wanted to pick UCLA over Cal last week but the line was just too large (the model got it right though). This week, the best passing QB in the P12 gets to throw on this weak defense. The model has the Beavers by a ton.

Michigan (-10) vs Indiana: In a running theme, the Indiana-gets-massacred-on-the-road thing seems like a pretty good bet. I think those Michigan coaches are hearing the “conservative play-calling” criticism in their sleep as well, and will drop the hammer on Saturday to appease the faithful. Model likes the Wolverines by 15.

Buffalo (-20.5) vs UMass: I was shocked to see UMass not only be favored last week, but also to get a win and cover against Miami (Oh). This week, they face the 2nd best team in the MAC, who have been blowing folks out. Model likes Buffalo to romp by 29.

Other Notables:NU (-7) vs Minnesota
Ohio State (-16) vs Iowa
Purdue (+26) @ MSU
Wisconsin (-10.5) @ IL
LSU (-7.5) @ Ole Miss
Texas A&M (-13.5) vs Auburn

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
These are all the remaining undefeated teams in FBS. After losing two (Stan, Mich) this past weekend, at least one more will go down on Saturday as Clemson & FSU battle one another. Louisville & Missouri are officially on upset-watch too, particularly the latter coming off a huge win sans their quarterback.