Last week was one of the more enjoyable games I’ve been to at Ryan Field in a few years.  The emergence of Mach V, the performance of the defense against a tough BCS conf foe, and the finish (weather included) really made it a helluva night.  Statistically, the NU D over performed its Scuzz Model profile, while the offense was right on par with expectations (the model forecast a 32-25 Vandy victory).  Yes there was talk about the WR corp being underwhelming, but as we mentioned there should be good opportunity for the offense to shine this weekend against BC.

The result on this week’s model is improved expectations in almost every matchup on the schedule – this is certainly driven by the poor overall performance from other conf teams this past week.  Primarily the Nebraska and Illinois games show improved outlooks.

You can also see that the projected wins distribution continues to move steadily to the right – now the model has NU winning 8 games or more in almost 60% of scenarios.

This week the model really likes NU’s chances.  BC’s offense had a ton of players coming back in 2012, but they were a really inefficient unit in 2011.  Their current offensive efficiency rating is 100 points lower than NU’s, while the defense performs about 50 points better.  (Sidenote – for the uninitiated, the Scuzz Model uses offensive and defensive scoring efficiency – points per 100 possessions to rate each teams’ O and D units):

I would expect BC to end up with a better offensive profile this year than you see above, especially after that week one game showed Rettig’s improvement from early 2011.  On the flip side we also saw that BC’s week 1 defense was a shade of what it was with Luke Kuechly last year.  I think the model is close on BC’s overall profile (expected winning percentage around 40%), but hasn’t got the units correct – offense is probably underrated while the defense is overrated.  As such, I expect this game to be a higher scoring affair than last week’s vs. Vandy, and while I feel good about this game I’m not as confident as the Scuzz model (78% winning likelihood).

Around the Country:

All games vs Spread: 45-36 
Week 1 picks:  4-1
Week 2 picks:  2-3

Foiled by my reverse jinx pick of Illinois (was totally worth it), it was a rough week for the Scuzz model’s picks last time out; but overall the model is still looking real good over 55% vs the spread across all non-FCS games.  Here are this week’s attempts (note we use opening lines for this segment): 

Louisville (-3.5) vs. North Carolina: 

Charlie Strong’s team is looking pretty darn good thus far, while North Carolina looked awful in week 1 and has enough trouble following them to be in the conversation with Miami and Penn State.  Scuzz Model is barely over the line with a -4, but I feel good that UL prevails by more.

Middle Tennessee State (-2.5) at Memphis: 

betting against Memphis has been one of the strongest elements of the Scuzz model (6-2 picking against Memphis LY).  No reason to stop now when the model likes the Middies by a full touchdown. 

TCU (-22) at Kansas: 

Weis’ team has looked bad; I don’ t know that they should be 37 point dogs to TCU at home as the model says, but that’s enough of a cushion that I feel good about taking the Frogs.

Ohio (-6.5) at Marshall: 

Ohio, darlings of the non-AQ hopes to break into the already-obsolete-BCS this year have been pretty dominant thus far, and face a not great Marshall team.  Marshall was obliterated by WVU in week 1, and the model likes Ohio by 15 points. 

Stanford (+9) vs USC: 

I’m already on the record from the podcast as expecting USC to win this game due to how they matchup vs. Stanford athletically:  I expect the Trojans speed to give them the edge over Stanford physicality.   That said, 9 points seems like a lot… especially to the Scuzz Model which favors Stanford by 2.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Race:

Arkansas’ totally unexpected collapse last week has boosted Alabama and LSU’s undefeated chances (LSU in particular, since their game vs. Arkansas is much closer to a toss-up).  Wisconsin of course has been eliminated with their loss – the hit to the Badgers’ statistical profile has also elevated Ohio State into this mix.  It’s my opinion that the Big Ten is at serious risk of handing a Leaders Division trophy to Ohio State at the end of the year (better than having to hand to Penn State, but embarrassing nonetheless).   The other usual suspects are all still in play… USC’s chances will improve measurably should they beat Stanford this weekend.

Just a note — the Scuzz Model is taking next week off, but will be back to preview the opening weekend of the Big Ten conference season.

Well we sweated out a week 1 win. Feels like 2011, eh? Interestingly enough, NU’s statistical profile in the Scuzz Model improved after last week’s game… here’s why: the defense, as rough as it was, played at the same efficiency level as the team in 2011. The offense, however, was better than previously advertised! That increased offensive efficiency, plus some rough results for other B10 teams, has given NU a boost in the model’s expected outcomes this year… even the chances vs Vanderbilt this weekend went up about 5%.

Primarily, the winning percentages for Penn State and Michigan games have increased – Penn State the most dramatically. Now NU is pegged to get 7 wins (as opposed to 5 LW – winning a 40% likelihood game will do this) and has 35% of scenarios at 7 wins or more. Can they continue the momentum this week??? As you can see, the model gives NU a 45% chance hosting Vanderbilt; Where Syracuse boasted an offensive profile similar to NU in week 1, Vandy’s offense is inferior to the Wildcats. The defense on the other hand, is not. Take a look at what James Franklin has done with Vandy’s units since the beginning of 2011.

The key pivot is on Offense, where after week 9 of last year they got more efficient each week… Week 9 was the first time Jordan Rodgers’ passer rating eclipsed 100, and he has pretty much remained there since. That said, the offense was not efficient last week – looking worse than any data point on this chart (albeit vs a really tough D).

The solution(s) for winning this week are not convoluted… pressure the passer, more consistently on offense, and don’t give up the big play. I’m really hoping we see VanHoose matched up on leading receiver Jordan Matthews, rather than just playing one side of the field. But that said, Dugar showed last week he can run with big WRs… he just needs to turn and play the ball at the right time. Vandy missed a great opportunity last week, at home, when SC’s quarterback got injured. I don’t think they looked particularly awesome, and unless their team experiences a much greater week 2 jump than the Cats, I think this is going to be a good hard-fought game that comes down to the wire. (T-minus 4 hours on my touchdown in Chicago, btw… am really looking forward to this one).

Around the Country:

Iowa vs Iowa State: this is a tight game every year. LY Iowa State won by 3. I could understand favoring Iowa by as much as 3. But 4.5? Seems too much for a team that is thin at key positions, and barely beat NIU last week. Scuzz Model has Iowa by 1.

ASU vs Illinois: this line opened at Even, which is usually where I quote my lines from… but that was based on the uncertainty around Nathan Scheelhause. He is back and slated to play now, so the line has moved to IL by 3. Scuzz Model doesn’t think that’s enough – giving little respect to the Todd-Graham and favoring IL by 5. Let’s call this my “bulletin board” pick for the week… I really hope that ASU sees this and uses it as motivation to knock of the Illini. If so, I’ll be very happy. If not, at least the model will be right.

Michigan State vs Central Michigan: MSU is a big favorite– 22.5 points, but after that offense really struggled to score last week, the Scuzz Model has the game at a somewhat closer 14. Seems reasonable to me that MSU gets up early by pounding the ball, and goes a little conservative to avoid any unnecessary drama.

Oregon State vs Wisconsin: Here’s a line that two weeks ago, you’d have been salivating over… Wisconsin by 8 over Oregon State; the worst team in the P12 North. Yes, Wisconsin looked rough last weekend, and yes they’re going on the road, and yes B10 teams struggle on the road vs the Pac 10. I think that Wisconsin gets it in order this week and drills a much weaker opponent. Scuzz Model has the Badgers by 20.

Texas A&M vs Florida: This one is really tight to call, but it makes a lot of sense to me. A&M is favored by 1.5, but the model thinks Florida pulls this out by 1. I think these two will be pretty similar offensively… the difference is that Florida has an awesome D, while A&M is suspect.

Already Obsolete BCS Title Game Hunt

Bama remains the front runner in this week’s “Already Obsolete BCS Title Hunt”. However, despite their big win of Michigan, their stats say the defense slightly underperformed (oofdah) and as such their likelihood of going 12-0 has dipped slightly. The other contributing factor is that LSU was lights out (against a harmless opponent) and has gotten a 5% bump in that head to head matchup on Nov 3. Wisconsin has fallen after looking pedestrian in week 1, while the biggest mover is Ohio! This came up duing our previews – that if Ohio could knock off Penn State, they would be favored in their remaining 11 games. I think it comes down to the Mac Championship, but there is a decent shot that we see Frank Solich back in a BCS bowl this year (paging Steve Pederson… anyone? anyone?).

“Plug it into my vein.” – John Lacombe

There is no better phrase to explain how I feel about the onset of College Football this fall.  Whether it was the terrible offseason (for CFB overall) or the unfulfilled promise of last year’s Wildcat team, it has felt like an eternity getting to the start of this season.  Let’s get the ball rolling with the first year’s Scuzz Model Update! 

In our marathon preview of the Wildcats two weeks ago, I admitted that this year’s team is not well loved by the model.  Last year’s efficiency rating on offense really looked good, but the defense was in such dire straits that the numbers never really looked great.  The Cats’ efficiency hovered right around .500.  Going into this season, these rates have been hit by a lot of departures on both sides of the ball;  couple that with a pretty tough non-conference schedule and the Cats expected win total comes in around 5.

When you break this down by game, it becomes apparent that the non-conference slate is really affecting NU’s numbers.  In what most fans would call 2 toss-up games, and one really tough opponent, the model puts NU at a severe disadvantage:

Now, if you’re like me, you believe that this year’s NU team can perform on par with last year’s.  Sure, the schedule is harder, but the quarterback position is healthy, the running back position is really promising, and the defensive line almost has to improve.  If we adjust the model to ignore the returning personnel adjustment for NU, the picture brightens considerably:

To me, this comes closer to the sniff test (purple tinged of course).  Maybe a little on the high side, but more in-line with what most in the NU community are predicting this year.

The fact is that NU’s make-up this year, particularly on offense, doesn’t conform to the standard tale of college football teams – with so much turnover, you do expect a dropoff.  But considering that Colter was a virtual starter at QB last year, and that the massive statistical losses at WR don’t do justice to the experience and talent in the new WR corp, the optimistic scenario above does not seem too far-fetched.  I really believe that this group of players can recapture the close-game-magic that NU teams (seemingly up until last year) of the past have exhibited, and can elevate that estimate of 5 wins up to 7 or 8.

Matchups Around the Country

There are a couple games this week that the Scuzz Model really differs from the punters (that is English punters):

Clemson (-1) v Auburn:   Unless Auburn has bought themselves another quarter-million-dollar QB, I don’t see how they beat Clemson this week, even with Sammy Watkins suspended.  The Scuzz model sees Clemson as a 8 point favorite (both adjusting for Watkins, AND including that blowout bowl game loss in last year’s stats)

Colorado (-5) v Colorado State:   Sammy called out his home-town Buffs as being terrible this week, and outlined some reasons for hope at CSU this year…. In their annual rivalry CU is a 5 point favorite, but the Scuzz Model likes State by 11.

Penn State (-6) v Ohio:  I won’t call for Ohio to win this game, but I really think they can.  If PSU didn’t have such a home field advantage, I might call it for the Bobcats, who are a legitimate BCS buster this year (not the title game people – just the at large bids).  Scuzz model actually has Ohio by 1, but I may have been over-zealous in my “adjustments” to account for all the personnel losses at PSU.  I’ll put it this way – if the PSU fans are light, late, or laid back, Ohio has a real chance.

Illinois (-10) v Western Michigan:  As I mentioned on the pod, Western Michigan is my 2^nd favorite team this week.  Really like their chances to “upset” Illinois (remember IL only won by 3 LY… and Western has the best QB in theMAC… did IL somehow get better by losing top WR AJ Jenkins and several awesome defenders??  Did I also miss when IL somehow generated a home field advantage??).  Throw in that IL might be starting 2 backup safeties and their top corner Hawthorne is hobbled, I LOVE Western’s chance to cover (Scuzz model says -6) and pull out the win.

And finally:

Alabama (-11) v Michigan:  I don’t like this one bit.  Scuzz model has Bama by 18.  I just think that’s too much, but felt compelled to share the model’s thoughts on this game.  Bama, like NU, lost a ton of talent coming into this year… but a virtual home game against a similarly storied opponent??  They will be firing on all cylinders.  Still, I think Saban is too conservative to beat Mich by that much… still, if bad Denard shows up it could be even worse.

The Already Obsolete BCS Title Race

Lastly, as we did last year, we’ll track those teams most likely to finish the season undefeated and make a play for the national title.  As noted above, this championship game is already obsolete… I think the BCS commissioners are going to be very sad they did push through the 4-team model for next season at the latest.

This year’s top teams start off with a no-brainer and a big surprise:

‘Bama, nuff said.   I’m surprised the model gives Wisconsin this good of a chance.  Note that this does not take conference title games into account, where Wisconsin will likely face their biggest challenge of the season.  I’ll mention that in previous iterations of this simulation, Florida State, Oklahoma, and LSU all snagged that #2 spot.  All have lost key contributors for the season, and I didn’t feel like Montee Ball’s preseason concussion was worth adjusting the model for.  I’ll also note that all three of us picked Michigan State to knock off Bucky in the B1G title game this season.

That said, even if Wisconsin goes undefeated… undefeated USC, Oregon, and probably Oklahoma would leapfrog them on strength of schedule.  The pall of the Leaders division, plus the lack of any real non-con opponents could keep an undefeated Badger team from a shot in the title game this year.

It was a familiar ending for NU fans this past Saturday, as the Houston bowl did not go in our favor.  From this fan’s perspective, the loss didn’t hurt nearly as much as some previous games (UCLA ’05 and Missouri ’08 are still the most painful for me)… I can’t tell whether this game was fundamentally less painful or if the ongoing streak has just numbed me (pun intended).  I know that the worst I felt on Saturday was during the 3rd quarter, when it was 30-7… maybe somehow the disappointment of the final score was mitigated by the fact that the Cats finally played well on offense in the 4th quarter.

The Scuzz model was downright unconvinced the Cats had a chance in this game.  The model liked A&M to win by 15 and assigned 32 confidence points to this game in the ESPN bowl challenge.  I’m not trying to assign blame, but if you breakdown NU and A&M’s performence by efficiency, the Wildcat offense did not live up to expectations, while the D performed better than anticipated.  I’ve tried to highlight this in the graphic below:

Each individual unit’s efficiency rating (purple and burgandy) is geared to show performance against an average team… since A&M’s offense is above average, and NU’s defense is below average, a much higher efficiency output was expected by the model (light green bars).  NU’s defense held A&M’s offense under the model’s expectation and below A&M’s average season output;  the NU offense did not rise to the expected level of output, though did outpace what A&M’s defense allows on average (dark green bars).

Now, one might argue that A&M was just clock killing in the 4th, and that lowered the result, but after NU got within 1 score, A&M had one drive that resulted in points – that wouldn’t have much of a negative effect on A&M’s overall efficiency output.

I highlight this as a lot of the post-game commentary I’ve heard focused on the D, rather than the offense’s inability to attack for 3 quarters.  As I’ve said on the podcast most of the year, I believe this team wins with offense, not defense.

Speaking of painful bowl losses… I had to feel for Stanford the other night.  I felt like I was watching the ’08 Alamo and ’09 Outback bowls all over again, where the Cats’ played for a FG rather than going for the TD.  Brutal.  Something for all us fans to remember the next time NU’s kicker missed a “chip shot” at a critical moment… this happens in college football all the time (and in the NFL too… coaches are way too reliant on kicking the FG in those situations).

Picks Update:

The Scuzz Model is leading the pack in the West Lot Pirates ESPN bowl pool, and has reached the top 15 in the Lake the Posts pool.  The model tripped up on both Wisconsin and Stanford, but had either of those gone the other way, another 99th percentile finish could’ve been in order.  Instead, the model will probably finish in the low-to-mid 90s (currently 94.7% in the confidence pool, and 95.0% straight-up).

The picks I posted last week only went 2-4, but the model is winning at a 62% clip against the spread:

Scuzz Model Bowls – Straight Up:   23-7
Scuzz Model Bowls – ATS:  15-9

Here’s picks for all the remaining games:

West Virginia +3 over Clemson
Pittsburgh -3.5 over SMU
Arkansas State -1.5 over NIU
Kansas State +8.5 over Arkansas
Alabama +1 over LSU

Since last week’s post regarding the impact of coaching changes on bowl performance we’ve had several additional examples of these bowl situations play out… 

Arizona State, Southern Mississippi, & UNC all have coaching “issues”.  Most interesting is UNC with their lame-duck /interim coach Everett Withers.  He held the “interim coach” position this entire season and is now leaving to be DC at Ohio State, yet stayed on to coach the bowl.  This is the situation most closely resembling Texas A&M, in my opinion.  If you were watching earlier this evening, you saw UNC get smoked by Missouri.

I’ve updated the chart from last week, adding in these new results and clarifying the buckets a little bit… now you can see the Lame Duck and Promoted categories on their own (rather than mixed with the fired coaches).

As a couple of our readers pointed out, the Football Outsiders also tackled this question last week using a longer time horizon.  It’s a great read and worth checking out.  The biggest differences are my willingness to include situations like Rich Rod (who wasn’t actually fired yet) and Bill Stewart at WVU (who wasn’t fired, but the next HC had already been hired).  They also use their FO expected scoring to measure performance, whereas I’m comparing to the Vegas line, which presumably already factors in some impact of the coaching upheaval (example – the line for the Pitt-SMU game this year has dropped 2 points in SMU’s favor, due to the coaching issues at Pitt).

My numbers still show a big difference in how teams perform with a lame duck coach (the FO crew showed positive scoring margin in this bucket, but suggested it was skewed by the Ralph Freidgen game at Maryland… I categorized that as a “send off” game, given that everybody but the Maryland AD thought Freidgen didn’t deserve to be fired).   The UNC game from tonight and ASU game from earlier in the week bolstered both the number of games and the negative trend in the lame duck category, as both those teams were hammered by their opponents.

Additionally, I took a look at teams playing bowl games close to home.  This was a pretty loose analysis – I didn’t calculate actual milage distances – but considered anything played about a 1-2 hour drive of a team’s home field; this is similar to the distance A&M will travel for Saturday’s game.  Across the 9 games I found since 2009, the “home team” out-performed the spread by about 1.8 points.

So given the spread for the NU game is A&M by 10… if we boldly adjust for both the coaching situation (I’ll use the fired+lame duck value of negative 10.6) and the home field advantage, that leaves A&M as about a 1.2 point favorite… lets call it Texas A&M -1.5.

Barring the adjustment discussed above, the Scuzz Model doesn’t like NU’s chances in the bowl game, giving only a 25% chance for a Wildcat win.  But the model was wrong about most of A&M’s losses this year, including against Missouri where the Aggies were 80% favorites.  As we tried to highlight in this week’s forthcoming podcast, the Cats really have their work cut-out for them in this game, but A&M has some definite weak spots that we will hopefully see NU exploit.  I am confident (as always) the Cats can win this one, but the margin for error is very slim.

Some bold bowl predictions… I won’t lie, I’m going out on a limb with a number of these (MSU and Wisc for sure), but here  are some bowl picks from the Scuzz Model:

Western Michigan +3 over Purdue
Louisville +1.5 over NC State
Toledo -3 over Air Force
Tulsa +1 over BYU
Michigan State +3.5 over Georgia
Wisconsin +4.5 over Oregon
West Virginia +3 over Clemson
Arkansas State -1.5 over NIU

Scuzz Model Bowls Straight up 6-2
Scuzz Model Bowls ATS 6-1 
(games where Scuzz Model and Vegas show identical lines are excluded)