#B1GCats:

We all let out a big sigh of relief after NU recovered against Western Michigan to stay unbeaten.  Ultimately, I thought the game was a good indication  of how far NU has come – 2 years ago, we lost the exact same game when the Cats traveled to Army.  On the pod we all talked about the guys firing each other up after Q1, coming back out and blasting the WMU D;  this was a sign of maturity, toughness, & good team chemistry.  I’ll also point out, that college football is not easy… no matter who you’re playing.  There are a ton of teams (including good ones) who have struggled surprisingly against weak opposition, failed to respond, or have responded by pressing & making mistakes (see:  Michigan, who should be 2-1 right now, but for some timely refereeing and Akron just being too horrible to pull it out).

Not much to discuss this week – the Cats have a very similar game on the plate vs. Maine.  We’re all looking for the squad to come out of the gates strong and execute consistently throughout the game in all three phases. Personally, I’d love to see Malin Jones see some time at SB as well.

NU’s projection profile from the Scuzz Model did some serious climbing this week.  Remember the model only had NU favored by 24, so the Cats met expectations last week as far as my numbers are concerned (31 was always too big of a number).   You can see below the Cats chances vs Ohio State have risen significantly – Cal finally proved what John has been railing about all summer:  a good offense can score on this OSU team.  Also Michigan’s struggles, Iowa’s close win, and Wisconsin’s loss have all boosted the Cat’s numbers.  Last week’s 7-9 expectations have shifted upward to an 8-10 win expected outcome.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up:  101-28 (73.3%)

ATS:  82-44 (65.1%)

Blog Picks:

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-2
Week 3:  5-0

There were a ton of good games to choose from last week, and the Scuzz Model had a banner run.  5-0 on the weekly blog picks,  and 75% over all games last week against the spread!  This week’s slate of games is terrible… week 5 can’t get here soon enough.  Still, here are this week’s picks:

Florida (-17) @ Tennessee:  .I know better than to rely on the Florida O, but the Vols just took a long trip and ran around chasing Ducks. Hard to believe they can score at all this week.

MSU (+7) @ Notre Dame:  This game could end 0-0.  Ultimately, I think the Irish will win because they’re at home, and their D is geared to stop what MSU’s limited offense can do.  That said, no way is this more than a 3 point game – in part because Tommy Rees will certainly score 7 points for MSU over the course of the game.  Model favors ND by 4.

La Tech (+9) @ Kansas:  Who doesn’t want to make money vs Charlie Weis?  After seeing Rice beat Kansas, I have little to no belief that he can get his team to win (let alone cover) from week to week.  The problem is that La Tech might be terrible.  Still, the model actually favors La Tech by 4.

IU (+4) vs Missouri:  Do you believe in IU?  This game is going to be a bonafide shoot out.  Missouri has scored points, but doesn’t really put the fear into anyone on either side of the ball.  DGB (their stud WR) is looking pretty awesome, but IU’s offense is for real, and their only slip thus far has been a ball-control Navy team that kept them on the sidelines.  I actually like IU to win this game at home, but even if not it feels like a 1-3 point contest instead of 4.  Scuzz Model favors IU by 2.

UTSA (+2.5) @ UTEP:  Yes, yes, and yes again.  UTSA is better than UTEP.  They should absolutely win this game.  They are constantly discounted because they are making the move up to FBS, but the Road Runners are talented.  The model has them as heavy 2-TD favorites.

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

Have to say, Bama-A&M lived up to the hype (unlike previous games of the century), and I’ve begrudgingly come to respect Manziel a bit – he was fantastic in that game (lucky on 2 key occasions, but damn good).  Still, A&M is OUT (and as we’ve said countless times on the podcast – had no business being a national title contender this year… zero defense, and frankly a diminished running game too).  Wisconsin all fell out of the undefeated ranks, while Alabama and Oregon are driving the bus… I’m already mad that we won’t get to see them play one another, cause something stupid will invariably happen (like blind squirrel Lane Kiffen finding a nut vs the Ducks), and we’ll get effing Bama vs Lousiville.  Or worse, LSU / A&M / Insert SEC school here.

It has been way too long since there has been football; it has been equally long since there was a Scuzz Model post!  After a needed offseason breather (to focus on a paying job, and to lick wounds from bowl season) the Scuzz model is back up and running in 2013.

You may have noticed that the model updates during bowl fortnight last year went dark… well, lets just say the model fell short of previously lofty performances during the college football postseason and yours truly got sulky (I was also distracted by such events as Northwestern-wins-a-bowl-game).   Just to close the door on 2012, here are the final stats:

Regular Season (All FBS games) Straight Up:  533-171  (75.7%)
Regular Season (All FBS games) vs. Spread: 334-275  (54.8%)
Weekly Blog Picks vs. Spread:  48-28  (63.2%)
Bowls vs. Spread: 14-20  (41.2%)
All Bowls – Straight up:  26-9  (74.3%)

Biggest lesson learned… some basic psychology things  (like USC and Florida don’t care about their games) would’ve really helped the model.  Even though the ATS picks went south, the model still did pretty good straight up in bowls and kicked my butt in the confidence pool.  The good news is that the games I highlight weekly on the blog had the best rate against the spread.

#B1GCATs:

Excitement for this year’s NU team could not be higher.  As you can see below, the Scuzz Model is on board with this excitement as well!  The model clearly projects 9 wins for NU and only sees the game at Wisconsin as a long shot victory.  The non-conference slate in particular looks much easier than last year – I know most NU fans are worried about the difficulty of this year’s schedule, but that really only pertains to the Big Ten season… the negatives of adding OSU and Wisc are balanced a little by the Vandy-dodge and the drop-off at Cuse.

This Week’s Picks:

NIU +3 @ Iowa:
I’m so excited for this game. We’ve been all too happy to talk Iowa this offseason, meaning we don’t think too much of them. This matchup w an NIU team looking to prove itself after last year’s Orange Bowl will not be the start Ferentz and the Hawkeyes wanted. Scuzz Model has NIU by a TD.

Cincinnati -10.5 vs Purdue:
The model loves Cincinnati this year, favoring this team over Louisville to win the Big East (it will take me at least one year to adjust to the new conference name). I don’t think much of Purdue so the Bearcats roll in this opening game goes well. The model likes Cincy to win by 3 TDs.

W. Kentucky +4.5 @ Kentucky:
Do you believe in Bobby Petrino? I’m lukewarm, but I do believe that Western Kentucky is good and that Kentucky is not good yet (their recruiting suggests a turnaround over the next couple years). Petrino certainly knows enough about playing in the SEC to prepare his team for this game. The Model is too bullish on W. Kent for me (favored by 6), but I like this game to come down to a FG.

LA Lafayette +10.5 @ Arkansas:
Bret Bielima’s debut in Arkansas is against a team that came oh so close to beating Florida last year, and averaged almost 40 points per game. I don’t know what to expect from Arkansas this year, but dominance is not at the top of the list. 10 points just seems too big… Scuzz Model favors Arkansas, but only by 2.

Northwestern -5.5 @ Cal:
I’m all in on NU this week. This team should be better than last year’s, and this Cal team is not better than Vandy or Mississippi State from last season. The Cats won both of those game by enough to convince me that NU can beat Cal by a TD or more. Especially knowing that Cal is young in the middle on defense gives me the feeling that the Cats can put this game away w their superior running game. I won’t type what the model thinks, but it really likes NU here.

The Obsolete BCS Championship Chase:
The BCS is in its death throes as we observe one final season of this obsolete championship model. Will Bama 3-peat? Will another SEC team continue their conference’s dominance? Will the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or Pac 12 find a viable challenger? Here’s how the model sees the Championship race, looking solely at the likelyhood for teams to go undefeated in the regular season. The Conf championship indicator projects a matchup against the highest rated possible opponent for each contender.

No additional NU analytics this week, but for my in-depth analysis on the Gator Bowl matchup vs. Mississippi State, check out last week’s post.

Bowl Fortnight Begins:

The Scuzz Model came out of the gates with a bang, going 5-1 to start Bowl Fortnight, including 4-2 vs the spread.  Since Christmas though, things have gone a litle downhill… yesterday was almost a disaster – had TT not come back in the end, the model would’ve been 0-fer. 

Side note — Jerry Kill seems to have righted the momentum ship again, after a tough finish to the season… a healthy Marquis Grey was a big help, as we discussed on last week’s podcast.  I say that from a national perspective though – my guess is most Goph fans are gnashing their teeth this morning over the close loss.

Sometimes it is just impossible to predict these outcomes… that’s one reason we love CFB so much.  The Hawaii bowl?  There is no reason to think SMU had any chance in that game… and then Garrett Gilbert reverted to 2009-National-Championship-form.

I will express extreme dissatisfaction with both Western Kentucky and Rutgers… y’all really screwed me over by blowing those games that you should’ve won!  I guess Cincinnati is the karmic opposite though, which saved me 34 points.  The model at one point this last week was #2 in LakeThePosts and #1 in the SolidVerbal bowl pools… now still in the top 6 or so, but looking tough to get back on top.

Here are this week’s picks:

Picks Around the Country:

Regular Season (All FBS games) Straight Up:  533-171  (75.7%)
Regular Season (All FBS games) vs. Spread: 334-275  (54.8%)
Weekly Blog Picks vs. Spread:  47-23  (67.1%)
Bowls vs. Spread: 7-7  (50%)
All Bowls – Straight up:  9-5  (64.3%)

It’s a very small sample size, but the model seems to be over-valuing the favorites this year, vs the spread.  Adjusting every line down by 2.5 improves the model to 10-4 vs the spread.  This is arbitrary and completely unfounded, but should it stick throughout bowl season, I’ll have to do some thinking on it — the guys on the Solid Verbal keep making the point that .

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, Saturday)

Oregon State (-3) vs Texas:  This was the Vegas line even before the TX suspensions were announced yesterday, while the Scuzz Model has the Beavers by 2 TDs.  The key to stopping Oregon State is forcing their QBs to throw a lot and hence make mistakes… Texas has the worst run defense in the country (when adjusted for player talent… I made that up, but you ge the point), and now has no late-game-McCoy fallback to relieve Jordan Ash.  Oh, btw, Oregon State has an AMAZING defense too.

Pinstripe Bowl (NY, Monday)

Syracuse (+4) vs West Virginia:  Remember earlier in the year when Cuse knocked off Louisville much to everyone’s surprise?  I’m getting a similar sense from this game.  Geno Smith and WVU will put up big numbers, but I don’t think they have the defense to beat Cuse by more than a FG.  I expect this to go to the wire – maybe even OT – and be decided by a 2pt conversion or a FG.  Model favors WVU by 2.

Sun Bowl (El Paso, Monday)

USC (-7.5) vs Georgia Tech:  As we discuss on this week’s podcast… there are a bunch of crazy folks out there who think that w Matt Barkley ruled out of this game, GT has a reasonable chance of winning.  Not happening people — GT is a terrible team that only made it to this bowl cause there are 2 teams above them ineligible for the post season.  USC has been highly questionable against good teams this year, but GT is not one of them, and I like the Trojans to make a statement.  Model likes USC by 10.

 Chick Fil’A Bowl (Atlanta, Monday)

LSU (-6) vs Clemson:  This game opened at -3, which would’ve been a no brainer, as a lot of folks have picked up on, pushing the line to -6.  The model still likes LSU by an additional 2 points.  I’ve been vocal on the podcast about doubting the SEC’s depth, but that doubt does not extend to LSU.  Les Miles seemed to find his gambling self midway through this year and decided to start letting his QB throw.  Also, unlike GA and FL who had cake schedules, LSU went through a vicious lineup this season.

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Tuesday)

Wisconsin (+6) vs Stanford:  The model has overvalued Wisconsin all year, but was still 50% vs the spread on the Badgers.  I think one of three things will happen in this game – Stanford wins a tight one, Wisconsin wins a tight one, or Bucky goes all Cornhusker on the Tree.  What I saw in the Pac12 title game was a Stanford D that was great on the edges, but could be run on up the gut.  Think Montee Ball liked watching that tape?  Or Melvin Gordan?  Wisconsin is not a speed rushing team like Oregon – they are a power rushing team like UCLA, and I think they can do well in this matchup.   On the other side, you have an ok Stanford offense versus an ok Wisconsin D… but this game will be won or lost by the Wisc OL – Stanford DL matchup, and I like the chances it is a close game.  The model favors Stanford by 3. 

Bonus Pick – Orange Bowl (Miami, Tuesday)

NIU (+13) vs Florida State:  Raise your hand if you feel good about FSU blowing out anyone ever??  I sure don’t.  Yes, this FSU team is really good and shouldn’t have much trouble with the NIU defense, but everytime anyone says that FSU seems to struggle.  They are the classic play-down-to-your-opponent-team.  Plus, they will have to deal with Jordan Lynch, who is prob the best QB the ‘Noles will have faced this year (Taj Boyd is the only other really good one).  Model likes FSU to win but only by 5.
Bowl Fortnight will unfortunately be over soon, but the best part of this football binge is about to be upon us.  Enjoy the appetizer of games the next few couple days before we hit the big one on Tuesday morning.  I’ll be down in Jacksonville for it – just look for the #64 jersey, or the West Lot Pirates t-shirt.  Go Cats!

As Sam so aptly quipped in our last podcast, ESPN’s bowl fortnight has begun.  After a couple of exciting games last weekend, the Scuzz Model 2-0 in confidence picks, and 1-1 vs. the spread.  Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s do some digging on the NU – Mississippi State matchup on Jan 1.

Cats vs Dogs:

I tried to explain the following on the last podcast, but may not have done a very good job.  Visual aids are always helpful too…..

The charts above show, game by game, how a team performed from an efficiency standpoint compared to the Scuzz Model’s expectations.  Let’s start with NU’s chart, which I have posted previously.  The good news for Cat fans is that the team has out-performed expectations for six weeks straight.  I think the story is validated when you consider NU’s three best games this year were probably Vanderbilt, Iowa, & MSU… and those are the games where the model shows the best performance vs. expectations.

Now consider Mississippi State.  Immediately, you see there is no pattern like we see with NU.  This may be the difference between a more upper-classmen laden team like the Bulldogs – week to week improvement is not as visible due to their experience compared to a younger team like NU.  MSU seemed to perform relatively close to expectations through the middle of the year, but had outlier performances on either end… boding well for NU is that MSU underperformed in 4 of their last 5 games, including their worst of the year in the last week of the season.

All this made me want to look at MSU’s week to week efficiencies compared to NU:

Something very interesting shows up when you compare NU and MSU’s week by week efficiencies.  In each of the last two years, NU has shown an upward trajectory in efficiency from about mid-season on (shown in the grey-shaded section).  MSU has shown the opposite – a steady drop-off in efficiency.  Will this continue into the bowl?  I don’t know, but it is clear that Northwestern teams over the last two years got better as the year progressed.  I personally believe we outperformed expectations in each of the last 4 bowls, which supports this concept as well (no wins, but again – think about the quality of those opponents, and the fact we were down one Dan Persa vs Tx Tech).

And, while we’re talking about bowls, I’ll remind you that MSU beat a pretty weak Wake Forest team in a bowl LY by only 6.  This year’s version seems to be relatively on par (at least efficiency-wise), but I argue is facing a much tougher opponent in Northwestern.

Picks Around the Country:

Regular Season (All FBS games) vs. Spread: 376-305   (55.2%)
Weekly Blog Picks vs. Spread:  44-21  (67.7%)
Bowls vs. Spread: 1-1 (50%)

A solid finish on the regular season.  Overall the model was pretty darn good on picks going 55% vs. the spread.  The blog picks were even better though (maybe I do know something about CFB… sometimes it seems like a crapshoot).  We continue with bowl picks, but this week is going to be a little boring.  The model has picked nothing but favorites through Christmas.  There are some more interesting games next week, so I’m making my 5 picks for games through the 27th.

Poinsettia Bowl (San Diego, Thursday)
BYU (-3) vs SDSU:  Model has BYU winning by 8… their D should be good enough to shut down the Aztec running attack, but if they give up a couple early scores they’ll be in trouble cause the BYU offense is borderline non-existent.

New Orleans Bowl (Saturday)
LA-Lafayette (-4) vs ECU:  I don’t like ECU at all, and the Cajun’s took Florida to the wire.  I think they are more tested, have more athleticism, and will win this one.  Model has LA-Laf by 9.

Las Vegas Bowl (Saturday)
Boise (-6) vs Wash:  I keep seeing comments about Wash having a shot cause they beat Stanford, and held USC in check.  They won’t have their 12^th man in this game though, and on the road they’re a different team altogether.  Model likes Boise by 8.

Belk Bowl (Charlotte, Thursday)
Cincinnati (-10) vs Duke:  Apparently the line on this has dropped closer to 7… I’m not buying it and neither is the Scuzz Model.  Unless the Bearcats are despondent over Butch Jones leaving (I doubt it), they should romp in this game.  Scuzz Model likes them by 3 TDs.

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, Thursday)
UCLA (Pick) vs Baylor:  This should be a really fun game to watch.  As you’ll hear us discuss on our next podcast (up tomorrow or Friday) John likes UCLA to run away, while I think Baylor has a chance if they can slow the Bruins’ running game.  The model has UCLA by 6.

More to come next week.  For now enjoy the bowls, and keep tabs on us via Twitter (@WestLotPirates) – we’ll be sharing thoughts and commentary throughout Bowl Fortnight, including updates on the standings in our Bowl Challenge.