West Lot Pirates Podcast

How satisfying was that win?? Fantastic game from the Cats. The model actually favored NU to beat the spread, of which I was highly dubious… huge props to the entire team & coaches for not only bringing their A game, but also burying Illinois in the 3rd quarter when the opportunity presented itself.

I’m going to save updated NU stats & projections for when we actually have a bowl destination and opponent. For now, an update to the exhibit that shows NU’s over- or under-performance efficiency-wise in each game:

It’s key to remember that this is actual performance vs expected by the model… the numbers supported the expectation of a beat down on Saturday. Interesting that this supports some of the comments out there that Vandy was the Cats’ best win this year. I would still argue MSU, in part because the models’ expectations change from week to week. If we played Vandy now, the expectations for NU would be higher than they were in week 2.

Picks Around the Country:

All FBS games vs. Spread: 367-296 (55.4%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-3
Week3: 3-2
Week5: 3-2
Week6: 4-1
Week7: 4-1
Week8: 5-0
Week9: 3-2
Week10: 5-0
Week11: 3-2
Week12: 2-3
Week13: 2-3

Another tough week for me picking, but a good week for the model. Might need to do a better job showcasing the model in lesser hyped games, where every sportscaster has put forth an opinion. My guess is that Vegas is a lot better at setting those lines, vs the ones on the Sun Belt, etc. Not gonna shy away from the bold picks this week… here we go:

(Note – wanted to pick both NIU -6.5 and Stanford -10, but couldn’t get this posted in time)

Wisconsin (+2.5) vs Nebraska: I shouldn’t be picking this, but something tells me despite QB issues, oline issues, Neb luck, etc that the Badgers have a shot, and may just pull this off. Model calls this a pick-em. I’m thinking Nebraska can only pull so many games out of their butt. If they let Wisconsin get up early, could be a different tale than the first game. For the record, I’m officially betting on the UW defense to hold Neb in check.

Alabama (-8) vs Georgia: Lots of talk this week in favor of GA winning this game. I think media is wishful for excitement / change. Find me a team that ran well vs Bama this year. When the Dogs can’t run, they lose to Spurrier by 4 tds. The model likes Bama – favored by 14.

KState (-10.5) vs Texas: Even the younger brother of the best damn qb I’ve ever seen can’t save this mess. Remember TX can’t tackle or defend run. Also, Baylor beat KSU by throwing the ball… does anyone really think Mack will open it up w his qb situation? Model has Wildcats by 14.

Cincinnati (-4) vs UConn: This is one of those games where the numbers may not do a good job predicting the game. Scuzz Model has the Bearcats by 12, but frankly Cincy has little to play for, is on the road, and UConn is going for bowl-eligibility. Still, I don’t think UConn has enough talent, and they may still be disappointed over their rejection by the ACC (tho frankly Cincy might be in a similar state).

Instead of the NIU pick, we’ll go w a tribute to Charlie Weis, in honor of ND’s undefeated season w “Weis’s players” as some media folk commented this week. (The irony is that Weis’s qb transferred to Kansas and sucks even worse there).

West Virginia (-21.5) vs Kansas: This may seem like a big number for WVU to beat, but the Scuzz Model aint scared. Holgerson & Geno playing for pride and pts tomorrow. Model has WVU by 25 against the 2nd most hapless team in CFB (tho maybe even CU could beat KU).

I’m not going to add to the BCS prediction fervor. I’ll just say this… should NIU beat Kent State tonight, I estimate their BCS chances at 4.7-9.9%. The lower end factors in the chances that NIU wins, KState wins, Stanford wins, and Boise State loses (giving NIU a shot to get in the top 16). The upper end of that range assumes Boise State still wins, but the game stays within 1 score, such that enough voter leap NIU over the Broncos, for their win against a top 20 BCS rated team in Kent State. I for one will be pulling for whichever MAC team wins tonight to bust the BCS party when all is said and done on Sunday.

Well folks, we’re here at the end once again.  I won’t lie and say this season has lived up all my hopes, but the Cats got what was the closest thing to a signature win last weekend, so I’ll take that.  Now we need to punctuate it with a beatdown of Illinois.  Give No Quarter.

 NU Projections:

I quipped last year, that this is probably the most boring week for the Scuzz model.  The model’s real value is simulating across multiple games, rather than looking at individual ones.  Still, here are the updated projections for NU.

The model has loved the IL matchup pretty much since week 3.  As Northwestern fans, we all know better than to take this game for granted, and the team & coaches know that as well.  One of the nice things about finishing the season with your rival is the added motivation that keeps you honest even in a mismatch…  but the other side is motivated too, and they’ll be fired up to put a black mark on NU’s season.

From a numbers perspective, I wouldn’t TOUCH the 19.5 point line on this game.  Scuzz model has NU by 20, but we all know that the likelihood of that is slim.  However, I still feel great about getting a win – the Cats haven’t lost to a team they were favored to beat all year.  Even without the rivalry aspect, there is still a lot to play for with bowl matchup, Fitz’s 49^th career win, and the possibility for a 10-win season.

I also think that after the way the game was won last week, the Cats won’t tighten up if it’s close down the stretch.  I think the senior leadership on this team really proved itself last week (esp on D) and the whole squad is going to come into this week feeling real good and ready to roll. 

The fact is that Illinois has a terrible matchup with our defense.  They don’t have the passing game or talent at WR to take advantage of our biggest weakness.  They also don’t have the chops at RB to be anything more than one-dimensional once the Cats O puts up a couple scores (I don’t think they have an answer for our running game either… esp with their injuries at LB).  With all that said, a plea… don’t let up on the gas in this game.  Ever.  Bring everything we have, shove it down their throats, and Give No Quarter, until the last second ticks off the clock.

Picks Around the Country:

All FBS games vs. Spread: 334-275   (54.8%)

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2
Week6:   4-1
Week7:   4-1
Week8:   5-0
Week9:   3-2
Week10:  5-0
Week11:  3-2
Week12:  2-3

Ouch – first losing week on the blog since Week 2.  I guess that happens when you pick teams like Kansas State that are playing with destiny and liable to blow it cause they haven’t played anyone (too soon?).  That said, the model was great overall, going 58% for the week in total.  Here are this week’s picks:

Texas Tech (+2) vs Baylor:  Classic letdown spot for Baylor here… after a big win, on the road.  Frankly, the Bears got a little lucky IMO with some injuries to KState.  Also, Tech excels at throwing the ball, so they will not be phased should Nick Florence put up gaga passing stats.  Model has Tech by 2.

Iowa State (+1) vs West Virgina:  Have to admit, I’m a little surprised to see this, but the Model favors the Cyclones by 5 points in this game.  I definitely believe they can beat WVU… everyone talks about that passing offense, but my opinion is that a good run D has been able to slow WVU down.  ISU has such a run-D and plays well at home (they almost beat KState too).

Rutgers (+2) at Pitt:  In honor of the Big Ten’s crazy manifest destiny, I’m going to take Rutgers here.  The model likes the Knights by 1 over Pitt, and I see no reason they should lose their first Big East game this weekend.  Plus, it’s not like Pitt is going to conjure up some “how dare you leave the Big East” mojo to take this game.

Maryland (+23) at North Carolina:  While we’re at it… more manifest destiny picks.  This one actually gives me a bit more heartburn… am hoping for some MD pride to come through, and for the UNC players to be looking ahead to next season.  23 seems like a lot of points, and the model has UNC favored by only 19.

Notre Dame (-4) vs USC:  For the record, I hate this pick.  But the model likes ND by 8, so I am compelled to put it out there.  I do think that no Matt Barkley + no defensive line = bad day for the Trojans.  Let’s be honest, USC’s hair will be on fire in this game, but I think they will be outmatched.  Manti Te’o is essentially playing for the Heisman, and the matchup just favors ND because of their running game and defense.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

This has been one of the more entertaining Championship races, in that everyone keeps screwing up.  Unfortunately this has let the SEC back in, but in some ways I feel they need to be directly knocked off their throne, rather than kept out of the title game altogether.  The undefeated race is a little boring at this point, since OSU doesn’t really count.

Since there’s not much here, let’s look at who else has a chance, should ND fall to USC, or something crazier.  Alabama has clearly the best shot to retain their position, with a 99% chance this weekend, and then an 85% chance in the SEC title game vs. Georgia.  Oregon’s chances of getting back in the mix are predicated on Stanford losing to UCLA (35% chance)… that, plus a tough matchup vs. OSU puts the Ducks on the outside looking in.  KState similarly has too much ground to make up (Texas losing tonight didn’t help).  Florida State, however, is well positioned with a home game vs. the inconceivably 4^th ranked Florida Gators.  Should FSU win, and go on to win a heavily favored matchup with GT in the ACC title, they would be next in line should ND or the SEC falter (the latter would require Alabama or Georgia losing this weekend, and then the loser beating the other in the SEC championship).  There are also some options for Florida to back into the game as well, like Alabama did last year.  To knock the SEC out entirely… prob need GT to upset Georgia, then Georgia to beat Bama, plus an FSU win over Florida.

To sum all that up….  Likeliest Championship Matchups and estimated likelihoods:

            Notre Dame vs. Alabama (52.7%)

            Alabama vs. FSU (17.7%)

            Notre Dame vs. Georgia (8.1%)

            Alabama vs. Florida (7.5%)

            Georgia vs. FSU (2.7%)

            Georgia vs. Florida (1.1%)

            Notre Dame vs. FSU (1.0%)

For Oregon (0.1%) or Kansas State (0.8%), the only option is ND loss + SEC implosion, and then they would play probably the winner of FSU-Florida.