West Lot Pirates Podcast

As Sam so aptly quipped in our last podcast, ESPN’s bowl fortnight has begun.  After a couple of exciting games last weekend, the Scuzz Model 2-0 in confidence picks, and 1-1 vs. the spread.  Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s do some digging on the NU – Mississippi State matchup on Jan 1.

Cats vs Dogs:

I tried to explain the following on the last podcast, but may not have done a very good job.  Visual aids are always helpful too…..

The charts above show, game by game, how a team performed from an efficiency standpoint compared to the Scuzz Model’s expectations.  Let’s start with NU’s chart, which I have posted previously.  The good news for Cat fans is that the team has out-performed expectations for six weeks straight.  I think the story is validated when you consider NU’s three best games this year were probably Vanderbilt, Iowa, & MSU… and those are the games where the model shows the best performance vs. expectations.

Now consider Mississippi State.  Immediately, you see there is no pattern like we see with NU.  This may be the difference between a more upper-classmen laden team like the Bulldogs – week to week improvement is not as visible due to their experience compared to a younger team like NU.  MSU seemed to perform relatively close to expectations through the middle of the year, but had outlier performances on either end… boding well for NU is that MSU underperformed in 4 of their last 5 games, including their worst of the year in the last week of the season.

All this made me want to look at MSU’s week to week efficiencies compared to NU:

Something very interesting shows up when you compare NU and MSU’s week by week efficiencies.  In each of the last two years, NU has shown an upward trajectory in efficiency from about mid-season on (shown in the grey-shaded section).  MSU has shown the opposite – a steady drop-off in efficiency.  Will this continue into the bowl?  I don’t know, but it is clear that Northwestern teams over the last two years got better as the year progressed.  I personally believe we outperformed expectations in each of the last 4 bowls, which supports this concept as well (no wins, but again – think about the quality of those opponents, and the fact we were down one Dan Persa vs Tx Tech).

And, while we’re talking about bowls, I’ll remind you that MSU beat a pretty weak Wake Forest team in a bowl LY by only 6.  This year’s version seems to be relatively on par (at least efficiency-wise), but I argue is facing a much tougher opponent in Northwestern.

Picks Around the Country:

Regular Season (All FBS games) vs. Spread: 376-305   (55.2%)
Weekly Blog Picks vs. Spread:  44-21  (67.7%)
Bowls vs. Spread: 1-1 (50%)

A solid finish on the regular season.  Overall the model was pretty darn good on picks going 55% vs. the spread.  The blog picks were even better though (maybe I do know something about CFB… sometimes it seems like a crapshoot).  We continue with bowl picks, but this week is going to be a little boring.  The model has picked nothing but favorites through Christmas.  There are some more interesting games next week, so I’m making my 5 picks for games through the 27th.

Poinsettia Bowl (San Diego, Thursday)
BYU (-3) vs SDSU:  Model has BYU winning by 8… their D should be good enough to shut down the Aztec running attack, but if they give up a couple early scores they’ll be in trouble cause the BYU offense is borderline non-existent.

New Orleans Bowl (Saturday)
LA-Lafayette (-4) vs ECU:  I don’t like ECU at all, and the Cajun’s took Florida to the wire.  I think they are more tested, have more athleticism, and will win this one.  Model has LA-Laf by 9.

Las Vegas Bowl (Saturday)
Boise (-6) vs Wash:  I keep seeing comments about Wash having a shot cause they beat Stanford, and held USC in check.  They won’t have their 12^th man in this game though, and on the road they’re a different team altogether.  Model likes Boise by 8.

Belk Bowl (Charlotte, Thursday)
Cincinnati (-10) vs Duke:  Apparently the line on this has dropped closer to 7… I’m not buying it and neither is the Scuzz Model.  Unless the Bearcats are despondent over Butch Jones leaving (I doubt it), they should romp in this game.  Scuzz Model likes them by 3 TDs.

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, Thursday)
UCLA (Pick) vs Baylor:  This should be a really fun game to watch.  As you’ll hear us discuss on our next podcast (up tomorrow or Friday) John likes UCLA to run away, while I think Baylor has a chance if they can slow the Bruins’ running game.  The model has UCLA by 6.

More to come next week.  For now enjoy the bowls, and keep tabs on us via Twitter (@WestLotPirates) – we’ll be sharing thoughts and commentary throughout Bowl Fortnight, including updates on the standings in our Bowl Challenge.

How satisfying was that win?? Fantastic game from the Cats. The model actually favored NU to beat the spread, of which I was highly dubious… huge props to the entire team & coaches for not only bringing their A game, but also burying Illinois in the 3rd quarter when the opportunity presented itself.

I’m going to save updated NU stats & projections for when we actually have a bowl destination and opponent. For now, an update to the exhibit that shows NU’s over- or under-performance efficiency-wise in each game:

It’s key to remember that this is actual performance vs expected by the model… the numbers supported the expectation of a beat down on Saturday. Interesting that this supports some of the comments out there that Vandy was the Cats’ best win this year. I would still argue MSU, in part because the models’ expectations change from week to week. If we played Vandy now, the expectations for NU would be higher than they were in week 2.

Picks Around the Country:

All FBS games vs. Spread: 367-296 (55.4%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-3
Week3: 3-2
Week5: 3-2
Week6: 4-1
Week7: 4-1
Week8: 5-0
Week9: 3-2
Week10: 5-0
Week11: 3-2
Week12: 2-3
Week13: 2-3

Another tough week for me picking, but a good week for the model. Might need to do a better job showcasing the model in lesser hyped games, where every sportscaster has put forth an opinion. My guess is that Vegas is a lot better at setting those lines, vs the ones on the Sun Belt, etc. Not gonna shy away from the bold picks this week… here we go:

(Note – wanted to pick both NIU -6.5 and Stanford -10, but couldn’t get this posted in time)

Wisconsin (+2.5) vs Nebraska: I shouldn’t be picking this, but something tells me despite QB issues, oline issues, Neb luck, etc that the Badgers have a shot, and may just pull this off. Model calls this a pick-em. I’m thinking Nebraska can only pull so many games out of their butt. If they let Wisconsin get up early, could be a different tale than the first game. For the record, I’m officially betting on the UW defense to hold Neb in check.

Alabama (-8) vs Georgia: Lots of talk this week in favor of GA winning this game. I think media is wishful for excitement / change. Find me a team that ran well vs Bama this year. When the Dogs can’t run, they lose to Spurrier by 4 tds. The model likes Bama – favored by 14.

KState (-10.5) vs Texas: Even the younger brother of the best damn qb I’ve ever seen can’t save this mess. Remember TX can’t tackle or defend run. Also, Baylor beat KSU by throwing the ball… does anyone really think Mack will open it up w his qb situation? Model has Wildcats by 14.

Cincinnati (-4) vs UConn: This is one of those games where the numbers may not do a good job predicting the game. Scuzz Model has the Bearcats by 12, but frankly Cincy has little to play for, is on the road, and UConn is going for bowl-eligibility. Still, I don’t think UConn has enough talent, and they may still be disappointed over their rejection by the ACC (tho frankly Cincy might be in a similar state).

Instead of the NIU pick, we’ll go w a tribute to Charlie Weis, in honor of ND’s undefeated season w “Weis’s players” as some media folk commented this week. (The irony is that Weis’s qb transferred to Kansas and sucks even worse there).

West Virginia (-21.5) vs Kansas: This may seem like a big number for WVU to beat, but the Scuzz Model aint scared. Holgerson & Geno playing for pride and pts tomorrow. Model has WVU by 25 against the 2nd most hapless team in CFB (tho maybe even CU could beat KU).

I’m not going to add to the BCS prediction fervor. I’ll just say this… should NIU beat Kent State tonight, I estimate their BCS chances at 4.7-9.9%. The lower end factors in the chances that NIU wins, KState wins, Stanford wins, and Boise State loses (giving NIU a shot to get in the top 16). The upper end of that range assumes Boise State still wins, but the game stays within 1 score, such that enough voter leap NIU over the Broncos, for their win against a top 20 BCS rated team in Kent State. I for one will be pulling for whichever MAC team wins tonight to bust the BCS party when all is said and done on Sunday.