West Lot Pirates Podcast

#B1GCats:
Despite the result, it kills me that I couldn’t be at last week’s game in person. The spectacle, intensity of play, and effort from the Cats were incredible. I will, however, be present in Madison this weekend, to watch the Cats surprise the pundits again by giving Wisconsin more than they can handle.  Check out our recap pod, where we also discuss Wisconsin in depth here.

Despite playing above expectations, NU’s profile took a hit this past weekend. The subpar performances by Cal & Cuse couldn’t have helped. I’m not convinced though – based on what we saw on Saturday, this team is for real, and should win 9 games, maybe more. The model is not as opitmistic, with 8 wins as the most probable outcome right now.

There is nobody that likes the Cats this week against Wisconsin – the Scuzz model is more bullish than some, calculating the Cats chances at 30%.  This seems surprising though, given that Wisky was absolutely dominated by OSU a short two weeks ago.  Everyone is referencing the bye-week as a huge advantage for Wisconsin, but there are many examples of the bye week being a trap, and Northwestern fans need to look no further than our 0-fer streak post-bye in the Fitz era.  The other common element cited by many is the Wisconsin run game – surely if OSU can pound the rock, UW can too.  My counter – we played with 6 in the box for much of the OSU game, putting a LB in coverage; Nate Williams at Inside NU also described how our safety positioning vs the OSU pass game took them out of their usual run-support roles.  That said, our interior D line has not been as strong as it was last year.  Will Wisky run well and score points?  Absolutely.  But we can sell out against that run, and force Stave to beat us whereas last week, the game plan was contain Miller and the passing game.  Will the Badgers effectively outscore our Offense?  They couldn’t come close vs Ohio State… so I like our chances.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 215-61 (77.9%)
ATS: 157-109 (59.0%)
Blog Picks: 19-9 (67.9%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1 (& 1 push)
Week 6: 2-3

Good week for the computer, but bad choices by me.  Overall 58% ATS this week, but I failed to reach .500. Here are this week’s picks:

Kansas State (+19) vs Baylor: The Bears leave Waco for the first time this week. They’ve played nobody yet, gave up a ton of points to WVU, and I think they’re due for a shootout, rather than a blowout. Model still has Baylor by 2 TDs.

Missouri (+9) @ Georgia: I don’t particularly like Missouri, but Georgia’s injury and defense problems make me think this will be closer than 9 points. Scuzz model has GA by 7.

UCLA (-24.5) vs Cal: Not good for NU fans, but after seeing Washington State destroy Cal last weekend, I have to think UCLA will roll at home. The model has Bruins over Bears by 35.

Nebraska (-14) @ Purdue: I just feel bad for Purdue at this point. Their defense is somewhat better (I hesitate to call it a strength) against the pass… but I think it’s because most teams haven’t bothered to throw much. I don’t believe the Boilers have a way to slow the Nebraska running game, which is all that should be necessary here, even with Danny Etling on the field for the Boilers. Model likes Huskers by double the published line.

Northwestern (+10.5) @ Wisconsin: I do like NU this weekend.  Wisconsin’s running game is strong, which I presume is the rationale for the large spread in this game, but their offense is not the same deal as OSU.  My biggest concern is a letdown after the hype of last week – but this is a spot Fitz & crew have been prepared for all year.  The model has the Badgers favored by 6.

Other Notables:
Penn State (+3) vs Michigan
Florida (+7) @ LSU
Stanford (-8.5) @ Utah
Washington (+14) vs Oregon
Kentucky (+27.5) vs Alabama

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
We won’t dwell on last week’s changes… There doesn’t appear to be anyone really in jeopardy of losing this week. Oregon and Stanford have tough matchups, Baylor and Bama go on the road, but really should win. I guess the most interesting piece is if Missou beats GA, they could make an appearance on this list next week.  Michigan too, if they emerge victorious in State College.  The big story though, to watch at the end of the year, is what happens to Louisville.  They continue to roll, dropping Rutgers last night, and really should be undefeated at the end… and will clearly have played nobody.  As such, I contend the death throes of the BCS should fittingly end with two 1-loss SEC teams jumping undefeated Louisville to play a rematch in the Championship.  Long live the BCS(ec).

#B1GCats:
It’s here.  The one we’ve been waiting for. Homecoming, Game Day, 7pm, ABC, Ohio State….  Adjusting for home field, the Scuzz Model has the Cats pretty even w Ohio State – just under 50% chance of winning, and pretty much in agreement with the published line favoring the Bucknuts by 7.  Pretty much nothing else matters this week, and as I said on the pod, at this point I’m just so amped I have little coherent thought.  I will reiterate – this game is winable, as have been our last two night games vs OSU.  Enjoy this one to the fullest.

With no NU game last week, fluctuations were all about other teams’ performaces.  Iowa and Illinois have really pulled themselves out of a statistical hole… not sure I buy it yet – we’ll know if they’re both pretenders after this week.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 172-49 (77.8%)
ATS: 126-87 (59.2%)
Blog Picks: 17-6 (73.9%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1 (& 1 push)

The model had an oddly bad week against the spread, coming in under 50%, but the blog picks did quite well. A&M and LSU were ultra close to making it a perfect week (how bout that LSU-Georgia game… that was fun, even though I picked wrong). Conference play begins, and I expect the model to do well this first week. Here are this week’s picks:

PSU (13.5) @ Indiana: I already made the mistake of picking the Hoosiers vs a big, fast team. PSU has issues, but Hackenberg has been great at QB and they have enough D to outstrip IU. The model has Lions by 8.

Oregon (-38.5) @ Colorado: Whoa Nelly! This one may read like a basketball team playing a soccer team in the end. CU has nothing that they can do against this Oregon team. Not even rain in Autzen (where it never rains) slowed the Ducks last week. The model favors Oregon by 65, which honestly, isn’t farfetched (sorry Sammy).

Oklahoma State (-14) vs Kansas State: Gotta think OSU has a bounce-back game this week versus a pretty mediocre KState. The Cowboys will be looking to reassert themselves, and are back home (which only looks like West Virginia, but with less coal and no awkward time change). Pokes favored by 18 in the model.

Minnesota (+19) @ Michigan: This is a terrible pick, but is predicated on one thing… Michigan has struggled to dominate inferior teams this year. They should absolutely maul Minnesota in the Big House; perhaps they figured out their stuff over the Bye and will come out blasting. The problem is, MN has talent on the Dline and will force Gardner to throw the ball. Uh oh. The model favors Michigan by 13.

Texas State +11 vs Louisiana-Lafayette: Similar to UTSA who I have picked a couple times, Texas State is a strong, veteran team, which is generally under-valued since they are making the jump to FBS this year. They beat Wyoming by 21 last week, and Southern Miss back in week 1. And now they are 11 point underdogs to ULL? No way. Model favors ULL by 3, and I like Texas State to win.

Other Notables:
Notre Dame (+6) vs ASU
Nebraska (-9.5) vs Illinois
Georgia (-10.5) @ Tennessee
Georgia State (+55.5) @ Alabama

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
LSU, Ok State, and Central Florida all dropped out last week of the obsolete championship race. This week we welcome Stanford and Baylor. One Big Ten team will fall off this list next week, though most everyone else is safe.