Scuzz Model: Defcon 1

It’s here.  The one we’ve been waiting for. Homecoming, Game Day, 7pm, ABC, Ohio State….  Adjusting for home field, the Scuzz Model has the Cats pretty even w Ohio State – just under 50% chance of winning, and pretty much in agreement with the published line favoring the Bucknuts by 7.  Pretty much nothing else matters this week, and as I said on the pod, at this point I’m just so amped I have little coherent thought.  I will reiterate – this game is winable, as have been our last two night games vs OSU.  Enjoy this one to the fullest.



With no NU game last week, fluctuations were all about other teams’ performaces.  Iowa and Illinois have really pulled themselves out of a statistical hole… not sure I buy it yet – we’ll know if they’re both pretenders after this week.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 172-49 (77.8%)
ATS: 126-87 (59.2%)
Blog Picks: 17-6 (73.9%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1 (& 1 push)

The model had an oddly bad week against the spread, coming in under 50%, but the blog picks did quite well. A&M and LSU were ultra close to making it a perfect week (how bout that LSU-Georgia game… that was fun, even though I picked wrong). Conference play begins, and I expect the model to do well this first week. Here are this week’s picks:

PSU (13.5) @ Indiana: I already made the mistake of picking the Hoosiers vs a big, fast team. PSU has issues, but Hackenberg has been great at QB and they have enough D to outstrip IU. The model has Lions by 8.

Oregon (-38.5) @ Colorado: Whoa Nelly! This one may read like a basketball team playing a soccer team in the end. CU has nothing that they can do against this Oregon team. Not even rain in Autzen (where it never rains) slowed the Ducks last week. The model favors Oregon by 65, which honestly, isn’t farfetched (sorry Sammy).

Oklahoma State (-14) vs Kansas State: Gotta think OSU has a bounce-back game this week versus a pretty mediocre KState. The Cowboys will be looking to reassert themselves, and are back home (which only looks like West Virginia, but with less coal and no awkward time change). Pokes favored by 18 in the model.

Minnesota (+19) @ Michigan: This is a terrible pick, but is predicated on one thing… Michigan has struggled to dominate inferior teams this year. They should absolutely maul Minnesota in the Big House; perhaps they figured out their stuff over the Bye and will come out blasting. The problem is, MN has talent on the Dline and will force Gardner to throw the ball. Uh oh. The model favors Michigan by 13.

Texas State +11 vs Louisiana-Lafayette: Similar to UTSA who I have picked a couple times, Texas State is a strong, veteran team, which is generally under-valued since they are making the jump to FBS this year. They beat Wyoming by 21 last week, and Southern Miss back in week 1. And now they are 11 point underdogs to ULL? No way. Model favors ULL by 3, and I like Texas State to win.

Other Notables:
Notre Dame (+6) vs ASU
Nebraska (-9.5) vs Illinois
Georgia (-10.5) @ Tennessee
Georgia State (+55.5) @ Alabama

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
LSU, Ok State, and Central Florida all dropped out last week of the obsolete championship race. This week we welcome Stanford and Baylor. One Big Ten team will fall off this list next week, though most everyone else is safe.



Posted on October 4, 2013, in Saturday Morning Stats. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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