Scuzz Model: Coming Home
#B1GCATs:
Last weekend was a strange experience: the Cats have certainly had night games before, but not to start the season, and not 2.5 hours later than usual central time kickoffs. It was a odd watching and waiting so long for our game, but it was definitely worth the wait… as we discussed on the podcast this week, it felt a little like an escape, getting out of Cal with a win considering our injuries, their strong play, the location of the game, etc.
This week NU kicks off the home opener with a familiar foe – Syracuse. The Orange did exactly what was expected by the Scuzz model last week – lost by 6. Against the Cats, they’re projected to lose by 14, which is pretty close to the published odds out there. If Colter and Mark are 100%, I say there’s no chance the Orange cover, but injuries are a hard thing to project against. Either way, NU is a big favorite in this game and it should be an enjoyable home opener for those in attendance (time to takeoff: 8 hours).
NU’s season projections actually took a hit in week one, and have come down a little. The culprit? Wisconsin… with their dominant performance against Massachusetts, the Cats now have only a 14% chance of winning the game in Madison. Don’t fret though… last year, I felt it necessary to adjust the entire model for how bad the UMass Minutemen were – they still perform more like an FCS team, and had a great overvaluing effect on the teams who got to play them out of conference. I’ll be monitoring to see if that adj needs to be implemented this year as well.
This Week’s Picks:
Straight up: 38-6 (86.4%)
ATS: 24-20 (54.5%)
Blog Picks: 4-1
There are so few worthwhile games this week, I’m only going with 3 picks:
Cincinnati -7 @ Illinois: Play the hot hand, my friends. We all saw what Cincy did last week. And we saw what Illinois did last week. The model has Cincy as 21 point favorites. Go Muchie Go. Also, if the over under on sideline infractions in this game is 0.5, I’m taking the over.
Notre Dame +3.5 @ Michigan: Last week, Michigan rushed for 242 yard in their blowout vs. Central Michigan. This week, they’ll get 1/3 to 1/2 of that number. Can their passing attack make up the difference? The model likes the Irish by a FG, while the line favors Michigan. I think these two teams are very close, and that the game comes down to just a couple points – 3 at most in either direction (very possibly a missed ND FG at the end will decide).
Arkansas State +13 @ Auburn: The great Gus Malzhan faces his former team… here’s the thing – Auburn struggled to score on Washington State last week, winning 31-24. I think Arkansas State is possibly a better team, and should be able to keep this closer than two TDs. Scuzz Model favors Auburn by 4.
Bonus Pick:
South Florida +22.5 @ Michigan State: I’m throwing this one out, to highlight how little the model thinks of Michigan State’s offense. Caveat – the USF loss against an FCS team last year doesn’t factor into the model (I throw those games out). Still, USF was bad last year… the line here is huge, but the model only likes MSU by 16. I’m not convinced USF is as bad as last week showed, and I definitely have zero faith in the MSU offense. (For context, the model correctly picked MSU to not cover last week vs WMU).
Obsolete BCS Hunt:
Two down, so many more to go. Georgia & Oregon State fell of this list last week w their big loss. Others really improved their stock – Louisville in particular looked so good in dismantling Ohio, they have leaped in the list (don’t forget Ohio is a pretty good team) – you can see how much Wisconsin leaped by beating UMass (from 2.9% LW), and NIU gets into double digits, after beating Iowa (notice that Iowa is not the toughest team on their schedule though).
Episode 138: Northwestern 44-Cal 30
After a very interesting opening week in Berkeley, the West Lot Pirates break down the NU victory over Cal and look ahead to this weekend’s game against Syracuse. We are your premier Northwestern Sports Podcast! You can download the episode from iTunes or directly from here.
Be sure to head over to northwesternhighlights.com for his amazing game recap, and be sure to check out Glopknar’s Top Gun tribute on sippinonpurple.com. Also be sure to check out our Facebook page! Head over to Facebook and “Like” us there for all the latest updates. You can also follow us on Twitter and join the conversation!
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Go Cats!
Episode 137: Game week with Nick Medline
It’s Game Week! The West Lot Pirates welcome in Nick Medline from PurpleWildcats.com to preview this weekend’s matchup with Cal. We are your premier Northwestern Sports Podcast! You can download the episode from iTunes or directly from here.
Check out our Facebook page! Head over to Facebook and “Like” us there for all the latest updates. You can also follow us on Twitter and join the conversation!
We really want to hear from our listeners on what you would like to hear from us. Please email us or comment on the blog or call our voicemail line and let us know what you’d like to hear from us.
Check out all our contact info on the sidebar of the blog page. Call us, tweet us, leave a comment on the blog.
Go Cats!
Scuzz Model Update: FOOTBALL!!
It has been way too long since there has been football; it has been equally long since there was a Scuzz Model post! After a needed offseason breather (to focus on a paying job, and to lick wounds from bowl season) the Scuzz model is back up and running in 2013.
You may have noticed that the model updates during bowl fortnight last year went dark… well, lets just say the model fell short of previously lofty performances during the college football postseason and yours truly got sulky (I was also distracted by such events as Northwestern-wins-a-bowl-game). Just to close the door on 2012, here are the final stats:
Regular Season (All FBS games) Straight Up: 533-171 (75.7%)
Regular Season (All FBS games) vs. Spread: 334-275 (54.8%)
Weekly Blog Picks vs. Spread: 48-28 (63.2%)
Bowls vs. Spread: 14-20 (41.2%)
All Bowls – Straight up: 26-9 (74.3%)
Biggest lesson learned… some basic psychology things (like USC and Florida don’t care about their games) would’ve really helped the model. Even though the ATS picks went south, the model still did pretty good straight up in bowls and kicked my butt in the confidence pool. The good news is that the games I highlight weekly on the blog had the best rate against the spread.
#B1GCATs:
Excitement for this year’s NU team could not be higher. As you can see below, the Scuzz Model is on board with this excitement as well! The model clearly projects 9 wins for NU and only sees the game at Wisconsin as a long shot victory. The non-conference slate in particular looks much easier than last year – I know most NU fans are worried about the difficulty of this year’s schedule, but that really only pertains to the Big Ten season… the negatives of adding OSU and Wisc are balanced a little by the Vandy-dodge and the drop-off at Cuse.
This Week’s Picks:
NIU +3 @ Iowa:
I’m so excited for this game. We’ve been all too happy to talk Iowa this offseason, meaning we don’t think too much of them. This matchup w an NIU team looking to prove itself after last year’s Orange Bowl will not be the start Ferentz and the Hawkeyes wanted. Scuzz Model has NIU by a TD.
Cincinnati -10.5 vs Purdue:
The model loves Cincinnati this year, favoring this team over Louisville to win the Big East (it will take me at least one year to adjust to the new conference name). I don’t think much of Purdue so the Bearcats roll in this opening game goes well. The model likes Cincy to win by 3 TDs.
W. Kentucky +4.5 @ Kentucky:
Do you believe in Bobby Petrino? I’m lukewarm, but I do believe that Western Kentucky is good and that Kentucky is not good yet (their recruiting suggests a turnaround over the next couple years). Petrino certainly knows enough about playing in the SEC to prepare his team for this game. The Model is too bullish on W. Kent for me (favored by 6), but I like this game to come down to a FG.
LA Lafayette +10.5 @ Arkansas:
Bret Bielima’s debut in Arkansas is against a team that came oh so close to beating Florida last year, and averaged almost 40 points per game. I don’t know what to expect from Arkansas this year, but dominance is not at the top of the list. 10 points just seems too big… Scuzz Model favors Arkansas, but only by 2.
Northwestern -5.5 @ Cal:
I’m all in on NU this week. This team should be better than last year’s, and this Cal team is not better than Vandy or Mississippi State from last season. The Cats won both of those game by enough to convince me that NU can beat Cal by a TD or more. Especially knowing that Cal is young in the middle on defense gives me the feeling that the Cats can put this game away w their superior running game. I won’t type what the model thinks, but it really likes NU here.
The Obsolete BCS Championship Chase:
The BCS is in its death throes as we observe one final season of this obsolete championship model. Will Bama 3-peat? Will another SEC team continue their conference’s dominance? Will the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or Pac 12 find a viable challenger? Here’s how the model sees the Championship race, looking solely at the likelyhood for teams to go undefeated in the regular season. The Conf championship indicator projects a matchup against the highest rated possible opponent for each contender.
Episode 136: Preseason Previews: Northwestern
With the College Football season just days away, the West Lot Pirates break down the Northwestern Wildcats and look at all the position battles. We finish off with our predictions for the Cats in 2013. We are your premier Northwestern Sports Podcast! You can download the episode from iTunes or directly from here.
Check out our Facebook page! Head over to Facebook and “Like” us there for all the latest updates. You can also follow us on Twitter and join the conversation!
We really want to hear from our listeners on what you would like to hear from us. Please email us or comment on the blog or call our voicemail line and let us know what you’d like to hear from us.
Check out all our contact info on the sidebar of the blog page. Call us, tweet us, leave a comment on the blog.
Go Cats!
West Lot Pirates Podcast 