West Lot Pirates Podcast

#B1GCats:
Another sigh of relief this week, although unlike WMU, the Cats were never down in this game and it never appeared Maine would get close; up 21-0 the coaching staff pretty much scuttled the passing attack and let the Cats grind it out. Maybe it was a test for the oline, maybe it was to keep things vanilla for OSU, maybe it was just good old Fitz-ball coming out to play. Yes, there are some concerns in the secondary, and with the run D, but I still feel we’re ahead of where we were last season. The B1G schedule does us no favors early, but I’m confident our offense can score with anyone, and that gives us a chance in the first two B1G contests.

After a reader commented that my conclusions were a little off last week, I took a look back at the numbers to understand what went wrong. I had been under a certain impression of what the model would project and had written my post based on that – rather than the actual data the model had produced. As it turns out, the model had erroneously flipped the NU-Cal score, and was chalking that up as a loss. So, after correcting that issue, the comment I made last week that 9-10 wins are expected is back on the table and supported by the data.

I know there is a lot of concern among NU fans that the team can’t compete w OSU or Wisc. But we don’t need to beat either to get to 10 wins or to win the division. Let’s remember that Nebraska gave up 20 to S. Dakota St. this weekend (and was behind at one point). Michigan almost lost to Akron (close to the worst team in 1-AA) and UConn (tho being on the road, I’m not as concerned w that one). Western Mich was terrible against Iowa, but only lost to MSU by 13. Hell, Georgia gave up 21 vs. North Texas this weekend! The sky is not falling folks… I know last Saturday was a really frustrating game, but there is a huge difference from what this NU team has done in the non-con vs. the tight spots of NU teams in the past against inferior competition. I think we’ve also seen a lot of evidence the play-calling was adjusted… Jeff Schell on LTP pointed out zero double-post pass plays (a staple of the NU attack), others have pointed out odd personel combiations, and I noted on the pod we had only had 5 first half offensive possessions – down from 7/8 the first 3 weeks. There’s no doubt in my mind that we’ll be ready for B1G competition in two weeks.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 140-33 (80.9%)
ATS: 107-62 (63.3%)
Blog Picks: 14-5 (73.7%)
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week4: 3-2

Knowing I was travelling last Thursday, I did most of my prep for last week’s picks early in the week. I wrote up picks for 7 games, and then chickened out on Thursday on my USC-USU and Rutgers-Arkansas picks. Dang. Those would’ve been a lot more fun than UF-UT, and IU-Mizzou. The model was again over 50% for the week, but dropped off from the high in week 3. Now is when Vegas has started to figure out some things, so the sledding gets tougher. Here are this week’s picks:

Miami (-18.5) @ South Florida: To say South Florida has looked bad this year is an understatement. They have lost twice at home to inferior opponents. What will the do when a superior opponent w an awesome offense (unlike MSU) comes to town? Model likes the Canes by 23.

NIU (-3.5) @ Purdue: Purdue was again exposed against the Badgers last week, and looks to be in for a rough season. Even though this is a home game, I like NIU to come though – they’ve already won a tough game on the road in the B1G this year, and are favored by 21 in the model.

Texas A&M (-14) @ Arkansas: Like I said on the podcast. #Karma. I voiced this opinion two weeks ago, and have heard it elsewhere… somehow post-Bama game, I like Manziel more than I did before. I expect and hope he goes tazmanian devil on the Beilimas and Arkansas this weekend. Model likes the Aggies by 27. (Note – my dislike for A&M is still high. I have at least a 10 year cooling off period after bowl losses; except for the UCLA juggler… that grudge will live forever)

Alabama (-16.5) vs Ole Miss: There are many people calling for this to be a tight game, where Ole Miss pushes Bama w their super talented WRs similar to A&M. The difference to me? The game is at Bama. This could certainly be tight, but I’m confident enough that the Tide can dominate to pick it. Model has Bama by 22.

LSU (+3) @ Georgia: This should be a very entertaining game. LSU looks competent on offense and by mid-November everyone may be talking about their defense again. Georgia’s O looks unstoppable. I am banking on the SEC west here, and the fact that this might be a really tight game. Model likes the Tigers by 6.

Other Notables:
Central Florida (+7) vs South Carolina
Pitt -7 vs Virginia
OSU -7 vs Wisc
UTSA (+2.5) vs Houston

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
I have been surprised for the last 3 weeks that NU hadn’t made this list, but as mentioned previously, I was data challenged, and had been cheating the Cats of a win in the model. As such, I’ve revised and now, lo and behold, NU shows up with a 2% chance at going 12-0 (note that is down from 3% last week, namely due to Iowa & Wisconsin’s performance).
Nobody was knocked off last weekend (though Clemson and NIU flirted with the possibility). This week LSU, OSU, & Central Florida are all at risk with tough matchups.

#B1GCats:

We all let out a big sigh of relief after NU recovered against Western Michigan to stay unbeaten.  Ultimately, I thought the game was a good indication  of how far NU has come – 2 years ago, we lost the exact same game when the Cats traveled to Army.  On the pod we all talked about the guys firing each other up after Q1, coming back out and blasting the WMU D;  this was a sign of maturity, toughness, & good team chemistry.  I’ll also point out, that college football is not easy… no matter who you’re playing.  There are a ton of teams (including good ones) who have struggled surprisingly against weak opposition, failed to respond, or have responded by pressing & making mistakes (see:  Michigan, who should be 2-1 right now, but for some timely refereeing and Akron just being too horrible to pull it out).

Not much to discuss this week – the Cats have a very similar game on the plate vs. Maine.  We’re all looking for the squad to come out of the gates strong and execute consistently throughout the game in all three phases. Personally, I’d love to see Malin Jones see some time at SB as well.

NU’s projection profile from the Scuzz Model did some serious climbing this week.  Remember the model only had NU favored by 24, so the Cats met expectations last week as far as my numbers are concerned (31 was always too big of a number).   You can see below the Cats chances vs Ohio State have risen significantly – Cal finally proved what John has been railing about all summer:  a good offense can score on this OSU team.  Also Michigan’s struggles, Iowa’s close win, and Wisconsin’s loss have all boosted the Cat’s numbers.  Last week’s 7-9 expectations have shifted upward to an 8-10 win expected outcome.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up:  101-28 (73.3%)

ATS:  82-44 (65.1%)

Blog Picks:

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-2
Week 3:  5-0

There were a ton of good games to choose from last week, and the Scuzz Model had a banner run.  5-0 on the weekly blog picks,  and 75% over all games last week against the spread!  This week’s slate of games is terrible… week 5 can’t get here soon enough.  Still, here are this week’s picks:

Florida (-17) @ Tennessee:  .I know better than to rely on the Florida O, but the Vols just took a long trip and ran around chasing Ducks. Hard to believe they can score at all this week.

MSU (+7) @ Notre Dame:  This game could end 0-0.  Ultimately, I think the Irish will win because they’re at home, and their D is geared to stop what MSU’s limited offense can do.  That said, no way is this more than a 3 point game – in part because Tommy Rees will certainly score 7 points for MSU over the course of the game.  Model favors ND by 4.

La Tech (+9) @ Kansas:  Who doesn’t want to make money vs Charlie Weis?  After seeing Rice beat Kansas, I have little to no belief that he can get his team to win (let alone cover) from week to week.  The problem is that La Tech might be terrible.  Still, the model actually favors La Tech by 4.

IU (+4) vs Missouri:  Do you believe in IU?  This game is going to be a bonafide shoot out.  Missouri has scored points, but doesn’t really put the fear into anyone on either side of the ball.  DGB (their stud WR) is looking pretty awesome, but IU’s offense is for real, and their only slip thus far has been a ball-control Navy team that kept them on the sidelines.  I actually like IU to win this game at home, but even if not it feels like a 1-3 point contest instead of 4.  Scuzz Model favors IU by 2.

UTSA (+2.5) @ UTEP:  Yes, yes, and yes again.  UTSA is better than UTEP.  They should absolutely win this game.  They are constantly discounted because they are making the move up to FBS, but the Road Runners are talented.  The model has them as heavy 2-TD favorites.

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

Have to say, Bama-A&M lived up to the hype (unlike previous games of the century), and I’ve begrudgingly come to respect Manziel a bit – he was fantastic in that game (lucky on 2 key occasions, but damn good).  Still, A&M is OUT (and as we’ve said countless times on the podcast – had no business being a national title contender this year… zero defense, and frankly a diminished running game too).  Wisconsin all fell out of the undefeated ranks, while Alabama and Oregon are driving the bus… I’m already mad that we won’t get to see them play one another, cause something stupid will invariably happen (like blind squirrel Lane Kiffen finding a nut vs the Ducks), and we’ll get effing Bama vs Lousiville.  Or worse, LSU / A&M / Insert SEC school here.

#B1GCats:

In a dominating performance last weekend, the Cats have passed their first 2013 test — getting through two tough games (opponent, timing, travel, expectations) to start this season.  Now that last word – expectations – is bigger than ever, with the QB play, defensive TOs, and gaudy numbers, NU fans haven’t been this high since the year 2000 (if not earlier). Now two “should-win” games will test if the Cats can be consistent and execute thoroughly against weaker talent.  The Scuzz model is very clear on Western Michigan – this should be a straight forward win for NU.  As we discussed on the pod this week, we’re just looking for solid execution from the starters, adjustments and good execution to start the 3rd Qtr, and a healthy dose of backups after that.

A little better shift for NU in the projections this week – as mentioned last week, I did exclude UMass from the model afterall – but Michigan and Illinois made up some ground on the Cats.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Nebraska (obviously) are still the big matchups – the model likes NU against Michigan right now, due to home field – on a neutral site, UM would be favored slightly (54.5% favored).

The Scuzz Model Picks:

Straight up: 68-16 (81.0%)
ATS: 49-33 (59.8%)

Blog Picks:
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2

The Model had a fantastic 2nd week – over 65% vs the spread. I however, choose poorly… I will still defend my IL v Cincy pick – that was a freak game, with Cincy playing flatter than flat, having some bad luck plays and then the injury to Munchie.  Tho many say picking against a home dog is bad idea…. I’ve tried to avoid that this week.

Here are this week’s picks – I’ve included 2 of the B1G-P12 matchups (the Scuzz Model lines on the other two scare me, but I’ll note them below for reference):

Oregon -27.5 vs Tennessee:  This is a huge line.  But do you really think Oregon can’t cover it?  Tenn has to travel three time-zones, plus has Florida on the mind next weekend.  The Ducks?  They’re just rolling on O under Helfrich, and playing a ton of super talented guys on D as well.  Lets just say the Scuzz model is really confident about this game.

UCLA +4.5 @ Nebraska:  Perhaps Nebraska’s D has improved since week 1, but even if the have, this will be a shootout, and frankly a shootout I think UCLA will win, even in Lincoln.  Brett Hundley will have his way with the Nebraska DL, which is their weakest spot on an unsettled defensive unit.  Model likes UCLA by a FG.

Wisconsin +5.5 @ ASU:  Wisconsin was an enigma for the model last year… the numbers always wanted the Badgers to roll, but they rarely blew anyone out.  This year, I’m a believer in the Melvin Gordan and James White.  I also think this coaching staff is an upgrade from Beliema in ’12.  I really like Wisconsin to surprise ASU on the road – Will Sutton is a great DT, and their line is formidable… but ASU isn’t used to this type of offense, and was actually pretty bad against the run last year too – their defensive line is great at rushing the passer, not so much stopping the run.   The model favors UW by 1.

UTSA +26.5 @ Arizona:  I have wanted to pick UTSA both week 1 and 2 to cover the spread, and haven’t had the guts to do so.  This week, they are just too overlooked to ignore anymore.  Zona will have a good offense under Rich Rod, but their D is rough, and UTSA can score (they put up 35 against Ok State last weekend).  I like the Road Runners to keep it within 3 TDs (though the model thinks they’re only 16 points worse than the Wildcats).

Louisville -13 @ Kentucky:  This one is close – the model likes Louisville by 14, but I love Teddy Bridgewater, and the model still doesn’t quite know how good UL is compared to last year.  Kentucky certainly is showing some pop early on, but they will be no match for the Cardinals.

Other notables (Scuzz model line in parentheses):

Alabama -7 vs Texas A&M (-11)
Iowa State +2.5 @ Iowa (-3)
Western Michigan +31 @ Northwestern (+24)
Washington -9.5 vs Illinois (-19)
Ohio State -15.5 @ California (-32)
Texas -3.5 vs Ole Miss (-10)

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

Florida, Notre Dame, South Carolina, USC, Texas, Cincinnati… all gone from the ranks of the undefeated.  Emerging above their remaining peers, are Alabama and Oregon, who look to be the creme de la creme.  Obviously the big game this week could derail Alabama’s run at 3 in a row, but I feel good about the Tide (just not the line).  I think eventually UL will be looking real good to go 12-0, but doubt they’ll actually jump 1-loss SEC, ACC, or even B1G teams for the title game (same w NIU & BGU).  Best dark-horse chance from those under 10%?  I like Oklahoma State…  they certainly have a couple tough games (OU, Baylor) but I like their chances to run the table, assuming they aren’t derailed by the recent allegations.