A great bye weekend to watch other games, but looking forward to watching the Cats tee off against Michigan.  Unfortunately the Scuzz Model was derailed by the stomach flu this week, so we have a late and abbreviated post. 

NU Projections:

Very little change from last week as the Cats did not play.  However, Michigan and MSU both underperformed slightly, leading to gains for NU.  The model sees only  a 16% chance against the Wolverines this weekend… but I like NU to win a little more often than one in six here.   I mentioned on the podcast that the Scuzz Model has Michigan favored by 12… I definitely like NU to cover, particularly when you consider that the Scuzz Model still bakes in a little of  last year’s Michigan (much better) and NU (a bit worse).  Adjusting the model to only consider 2012 action (a statistical model I’m not entirely sure when to use yet), the model only favors Michigan by 7.

The predicted wins pretty much speak for themselves at this point.  40% chance to break 7/8 wins (i.e. expectations coming into this year).  I personally won’t be disappointed with 8 (even though I think we could have reached 10 or 11), but it will sting a big if we can’t get one this weekend or next.

Picks Around the Country:

All games vs. Spread: 276-219   (55.8%)

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2
Week6:   4-1
Week7:   4-1
Week8:   5-0
Week9:   3-2
Week10:  5-0

Another perfect week for the model’s picks!  Though overall the model was only 50%, still +57 games on the year.  Here are this week’s picks:

Wisconsin (-7) at Indiana:  Sorry Hoosiers… unless your basketball crowd camps out overnight and causes havoc for Wisconsin’s Oline & QB with noise, the Badgers are going to end the dream.  Scuzz model has UW by 20.

Syracuse (+3) vs Louisville:  Hearing a lot out there about this matchup, and the story basically goes UL hasn’t played anyone, has needed some tight escapes, and gets a tough opponent in a tough location.  Model likes UL by only 2, so this is a narrow pick.

Mississippi State (+17.0) at LSU:  Everyone knows I think a lot of the LSU fans, and that I think that team is dumb to schedule any home games prior to 7pm.  But that stadium is going to be flat on Saturday.  After what almost happened last week?  And LSU’s team is going to be flat… and they aren’t playing Kentucky.  The model well favors the Tigers, but I think ole’ Zach Mettenberger reverts to form, and MSU keeps it close.

Miami (+2) at Virginia:   Am I missing something?  Miami is not good… but neither is Virginia.  The difference is Miami has some much better players.  Scuzz model says Canes by 4.

Penn State (+8.5) at Nebraska:  While the model favors the Huskers this week, it’s only by 3 points.  I don’t think Neb has seen a defense like this yet – the closest they came was last week vs. MSU, and they should’ve lost.  This week I think Penn State should put more pressure offensively on Nebraska, and keep this one close (that’s how Neb is winning most of their games anyway).

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

Absolutely no change this past week, as everything stayed the same.  I quipped this was one “crazy week in college football, where once the dust settled, nothing actually happened”.  Rest assured, the season will not end with 4 (or 6) undefeated teams.

As much as the Minnesota game was a repeat of last year’s matchup, this week’s game may be even more uncanny.  The hallmarks of the 2012 Wildcat run defense were forged in the game against the Huskers last year, and if the Cats can re-produce that effort, this could be a special weekend.

NU Projections: 

The win over Minnesota returned NU’s rating in the Scuzz model to where it was prior to the Penn State game.  As a result, the simulated likelihood of beating Nebraska has risen a little;  neither Iowa or MSU looked particularly good last week, ceding ground to NU in those matchups as well.  The big move is Illinois, who just looks like a disaster at this point.  For anyone interested, here is a lovely article about the Illini coach, and some of the questions the fan base are starting to raise about his potential.  On the flip side, Michigan by way of that blowout gained against NU.

The win against MN plus the favorable matchup vs. Illinois has significantly shifted NU’s wins potential for the season – for the first time 9 wins are looking more likely than 7.  NU’s expected number of conference wins in the model right now is 4.0… just under Iowa (4.5) and Nebraska (4.8).  As such, these next two weeks are critical for the Cats – two wins can vault them into a showdown with Michigan (6.4 exp. wins) for the division crown.

NU vs. Nebraska

When we previewed Nebraska before the season, none of us were very impressed with what we saw.  Sam would be hard pressed to say anything good about Nebraska, but a year after offering glowing praise of the defense John though this year’s product looked weak.  That has played out on the field, with a defense that is particularly susceptible to duel-threat QB attacks.  Their defensive numbers have never come close to what Nebraska showed during their first 6 weeks in the Big Ten, before Jared Crick went down with injury.  Certainly, these defensive numbers are not bad in and of themselves, but the story is Nebraska’s defense has continued to backslide week by week for the last three years:

I also want to highlight Nebraska’s offense, which you can see has been very consistent this season.  After adjusting for returning personnel (relative to the rest of the nation) they have been uber steady since week one.  That said, I made the point last year that the Taylor Martinez offense that smashed onto the College football scene in 2010 had dropped off, and that remains true;  Nebraska has stabilized, but they are not the juggernaut many still make them out to be.

Picks Around the Country:

All games vs. Spread: 187-145

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2
Week6:   4-1
Week7:   4-1

The model came back to a more average level last week, but keeps a nice rate of 56% against the spread for the year.  Last week was a good week for the picks on the blog – the model only missed on Vandy-Florida, which was close early but UF’s special teams blew the doors off in the 2^nd half.   Here are this week’s picks:

Kansas State (+4) at West Virginia:   I will get this one out of the way… I do not love picking against Geno Smith, at home, in a place K-State has never played.  Still, it is hard to argue with what the other purple Wildcats are doing this year.  Scuzz Model favors KSU by 5.

Michigan State (+10) at Michigan:   This looks like a great pick if you believe MSU is closer to Alabama than it is to Purdue.  The Denard Robinson show will not be able to torch MSU on the ground, meaning he will have to throw the ball, which could spell disaster.   Both the model and I think Michigan prevails, but not by more than 1 score (model favors Mich by 5).

Baylor (+13) at Texas:  Really?  Haven’t we learned that Texas can’t stop anybody?  And don’t we know that Nick Florence is a fantastic QB?  How is this line almost two touchdowns?  Granted, Texas should win, but it’ll be closer than this… methinks people are overreacting to Baylor’s big loss to TCU… those people may be forgetting that TCU knows how to tackle – something that continues to evade the Longhorns.

NIU (-13.5) at Akron:  You may remember that NIU is pretty good this year, having almost knocked off Iowa to start the season.  Let me assure you that Akron is really awful (1-6 awful with a defense that gives up twice as much as the offense scores).  Model has NIU by 36.

Miami (+17.5) vs Florida State:  Don’t get me wrong, if Miami wins this game I’d be shocked… but the model doesn’t think FSU wins by quite that much.  This one pretty much hinges on the first half: the Canes seem to come apart once they get down big, but if they can keep it close they’ll stay interested and play to the end.  I also don’t think FSU has the type of running game that KSU and ND used to obliterate Miami’s D.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

Here they are… the last 11 teams standing (at least the ones the model gives a greater-than-0% chance to go undefeated):

Here’s the problem:  Kansas State, Florida, and Oregon State face much tougher roads in the 2^nd half;  Oregon and Notre Dame still have their two hardest games to play yet; and the Big East will probably cannibalize itself.  I think we’re looking at Alabama and a 1-loss team (sorry Ohio).  I just really hope that team isn’t from the SEC – with any luck South Carolina will help punch another perfect record this weekend.  Who has an edge right now to meet ‘Bama?  The eye test tells me Oregon, but there is a part of me that thinks Kansas State has the best shot… if they win this weekend their road should be the easiest, given no conference championship game.

So here’s the good news after last weekend’s loss:  The Cats season is not over.  And most importantly, there was nothing in the course of that game that changed what we all believed about the Cats last Friday.  The only worry I have is what sort of impact a loss like that can have on a team psychologically… I hope the players and coaches have been able to get back to normal this week, and have no lasting effects.

NU Projections:

Northwestern’s offensive rating didn’t drop too much as a result of last week’s game.  The defense however, took a hit in the Scuzz model.  This hardly seems fair given what we know about that game: the offensive production was predominantly driven by special teams;  and the defense was really hurt by the lack of production on offense, and that last garbage time TD.  That said, the negative impact on NU’s expected winning percentage seems about right.  As a result, the game by game projections have dropped for NU vs Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota.  The match-up with the Gophers this week presents a 50% toss-up.

NU’s projection for the year still keys on 7 or 8 wins, while the possibilities at the high-end of the spectrum are way down.  This is mostly because Michigan is looking real strong again, so to get to 10 wins the Cats would need to beat them, or sweep all of their other games.   That said, a win against MN would shift very close to last week’s results.

NU vs. MN

The Golden Gophers started out this year better than anticipated, but really fell flat two weeks ago against Iowa.  Without Marquis Grey, the running game, passing game, and subsequently defense all suffered. 

If we examine Minnesota’s expected winning percentage during the Jerry Kill era, we notice a similar trend from the beginning of the 2011 season… pretty good performance during the non-conference, and then a drop off come big ten season.

MN never recovered after that drop in 2011… the last third of the season showed some promise (namely by beating Iowa), but the Gophers never really came close to even a 50% expected winning percentage.  This year, the team had an even more noticeable rise in performance, particularly in weeks 3 and 4.  The Iowa matchup has curtailed that slightly, but even without that loss, MN’s stats are not good.  And unlike with Penn State last year, we don’t need any assumptions to create a gap in performance between NU and Minnesota.

It doesn’t look like the QB Grey will be back 100% this week, which makes me feel pretty good about NU’s chances in this game.  Grey with a tender ankle will be much easier to pressure and not nearly the same type of threat to run (he won’t quite be one-dimensional, but he won’t be as dynamic either).  I certainly expect him and Max Shortell to put up some points on NU, but unlike the Penn State game, Minnesota can’t defend either one of the Northwestern offenses.  That said, hopefully NU will be a bit more balanced this week and will really exploit the youth up front, and the holes in the middle of the Gopher D.

Picks Around the Country:

All games vs. Spread: 162-120

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week 3:   3-2
Week 5:   3-2
Week 6:   4-1

The model was on fire last week – 77% against the spread – and is now hitting a robust 57% of games through the year.  This is a big improvement from last year, which at this point I have to attribute to the addition of recruiting rankings and adjustments I’ve made to last year’s stats for injuries, suspensions, etc.  There were two wins last week I’m particularly happy about – the shellacking that KSU put on Charlie Weis, and the continued brutality from Illinois.   Here are this week’s picks:

Oklahoma (-3) vs Texas:   The model only favors Oklahoma in this matchup by 4, but I just think Texas has too many problems on defense.  Also, unlike West Virginia, the Sooners are a bit tougher on that side of the ball.

Iowa (+11.5) at Michigan State:   The model is bearish on the Spartans this week.  It still likes them to win at home, but only 3.  Given MSU’s troubles with the pass, and the fact that Iowa has been able to run the ball effectively makes me think this should be a close game (not a blowout as Vegas has listed).

Mississippi (-1) vs Auburn:  Ole’ Miss looked alright against A&M last week, and now hosts probably the worst team in the SEC West.  The line is only 1, but the model says Rebels by 5.

Vanderbilt (+8.5) vs Florida:  The Commodores are not good, but this looks like a pretty good trap / letdown game from the Gators.  The model says Florida by only 8… that’s a pretty tight window to be picking on, but the intangibles look good for Vandy at home this week.

Wisconsin (+1) at Purdue:  Can the Badgers do it again this week?  Purdue is much better than Illinois, and the Badgers have been awful on the road, but are the Badgers really going to lose this game?  Purdue gave up 44 to Michigan, and 300 yards of rushing.  Model has Wisconsin by 11.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

A great weekend of football has derailed three more would-be-challengers for the National Title game – FSU, LSU, and Georgia.  The only real surprise is FSU, who lived up to their billing of the last 10 years by blowing a game they really should’ve won against an inferior opponent.  Some are saying “Clemson-ing” could be re-coined “Nole-ing”.  Can we just agree to say “ACC-ing”?

Alabama remains the front-runner (though some are predicting a tougher-than-expected match up at Mizzou this weekend), followed now by Notre Dame.  The Irish looked vintage on Saturday, dominant at the line of scrimmage, suffocating on defense (after the 1^st couple Miami drives), and running the ball with authority.  I think their remaining schedule is too tough (they’ve yet to play their 3 toughest opponents), probably leaving Oregon as your most likely challenger to Alabama.  We’re getting close to the point of a single upset being able to cause major BCS chaos (wouldn’t that be ironic with a playoff game only two years away).

This week we get NU’s first big test of the conference season – the Nittany Lions.  I never thought this would be an easy game in 2012, especially being on the road;  nor did I expect PSU to be a threat to win the leaders division at any point this year.   This opponent has been super frustrating to play for the last 3 years (in particular) for NU fans.  The Cats have dominated the first halves of the last two games, only to fall flat after the intermission.   The Scuzz Model has some evidence as to why this year may be different.

NU Projections:

We’ll start with this week’s NU projection chart, which show small improvement from last week’s numbers.  Not a lot of surprises, given last week’s results on the field.  Frankly, the biggest surprise is how much the W% vs Penn State has dropped (more on that in a bit):

The distribution chart now shows 9 wins almost as often as 7, with an 8-4 season occurring one-third of the time.   Right now the Scuzz model projects both Michigan and Nebraska to finish with 5 or 6 conference wins… a 9-3 record from NU could be enough to share the division title.

NU vs. Penn State

When I saw the game-by-game chart for this week, I was surprised by Penn State.  I knew they had played a great game against Illinois, but at the same time… Illinois sucks.  Three of PSU’s five TDs came on drives that started at the PSU 40 or better.  IL also threw a pick on the 1 yard line.  That one play alone would’ve taken some of the edge off Penn State’s lofty efficiency rating this week (unfortunately the Scuzz model can’t adjust for everything).

To understand this better, I took a look at how PSU’s expected winning percentage has fluxuated over the last two years, and shown it side-by-side with NU’s winning percentage:

Look at how consistent PSU was during the middle portion of last year: hardly any shift for 8 weeks running.  We really dinged them in the pre-season adjustments this year, but that was warranted based on how PSU played in weeks 1 and 2 – right about at the predicted level.  It wasn’t until weeks 3 (Temple) and 4 (Navy) that PSU’s profile started to elevate and stabilize.  Then you see the spike last week for the Illinois game.  If I were a betting man, I would bet this is point represents an overstatement of Penn State’s power.  Illinois was so bad, and PSU dominated them so completely – given all the evidence we have about Penn State (new head coach, mediocre QB, depth issues, key skill position departures),  I have to think the data points from the prior two weeks are more indicative of how this team will play on a week to week basis.

PSU should maybe be on par with Northwestern, who has been ultra-consistent since the Vanderbilt game.  The other thing to point out on this chart… look at how far apart NU and Penn State were when they played one another last year.   It was the low-point for NU in 2011 and there is no doubt in mind that the current incarnation of NU football is far superior to what we watched last time these two teams played.  The possibility that these two teams are much closer statistically than the last two times they met gives me hope that NU can break the mold against the Lions this year.

Picks Around the Country:

All games vs. Spread: 101-90

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2

The model rebounded in week 5 with a decent showing.  Kinda miffed that WVU couldn’t come through for me thought…  love Geno Smith and that crazy Air Raid offense, but man they really have no defense.  Here are this week’s picks:

Kansas State (-23.5) vs Kansas:   I have been no fan of KSU going into this year, but the model is no fan of Kansas.  Dedicating this pick to Charlie Weis.

Texas A&M (-8.5) at Mississippi:   This week I listened to all the ESPN, CBS, and Grantland guys talk about how A&M was running the best backyard offense they’ve ever seen.  Scuzz model likes that offense to outscore Mississippi by 20+.

Rutgers (-8) vs Connecticut:  The Scarlet Knights are quietly putting together a good year.  This week they get a weak Connecticut team and are favored by 8.  Unlike a lot of other teams out there, Rutgers can play D;  they can also dominate time of possession with their running game.  Model has Rutgers by 10.

Ohio State (-4.5) vs Nebraska:  My only hesitation with this pick, is the fragility of Braxton Miller.  He got really beat-up last week, and watching Nebraska’s LBs hit the UW quarterback makes me wonder if Braxton plays all four quarters.  Still, Nebraska faces the best team they’ve played to date on the road where their QB has not performed well and against a team that matches up well against them.   Model has the Buckeyes by a TD.

Wisconsin (-11.5) vs Illinois:  I am leery to make this pick, because the Scuzz model relies so much on the prior year’s stats to project the first third of a new season.  Even still, Wisconsin should dominate Illinois this weekend.  They have the defense to shut down the anemic IL attack, and IL’s defense has shown zero ability to stop anybody other than Western Michigan this year.  The model has the Badgers by 20.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:

Little change from last week, though Cincinnati enters the fray after their surprising win over Virginia Tech.  At risk this week:  Georgia, Notre Dame, & LSU.  Should either the former or the latter lose, the team that beats them (S. Car,  Fla) will probably take their place in this ranking next week.  Note the shift in Alabama’s chances is primarily a result of Texas A&M’s rise in efficiency after last week.  Do you find West Virginia conspicuous by their absence?  They are 50-50 in a bunch of remaining B12 game (dogs vs Texas and OU), mostly on account of their D.  A big win this weekend could land them on next week’s list however.

The Scuzz Model is back this week, just in time to preview the Big Ten Conference Season!  Not a whole lot to say about last week’s NU win (though a great thing in and of itself), so we’ll focus on looking forward.

Before I get to the usual array of projections, I wanted to highlight an adjustment I’ve just baked into the model.  It’s pertinent because as I was looking at which Big Ten teams the model sees as likely division champs, I was surprised to see Michigan still highly rated.  Some digging has led me to discover the following:

UMass Mess

As I’ve mentioned previously, I do not include results from 1-AA matchups (FCS) in the Scuzz model, primarily because those games really skew ratings;  all other FBS teams do get counted though.  This has created a small issue this year, due to the complete blow-out nature of every game Massachusetts has played.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy UMass and their top-notch college band have made the jump to football’s highest division, but their output on the field is screwing up my model.  This is exacerbated because both Michigan and Indiana have played UMass, and won by 40+ points (Connecticut crushed the Minutemen as well, but it’s the B1G teams I really care about for obvious reasons).  Look at how much the Wolverines and Hoosiers expected winning percentage increased on account of the UMass game:

The Indiana result in particular is really jarring.  I’ve decided to treat these matchups like 1-AA games and exclude them from the model.  As a result, NU gets a slight boost in the expected outcome against both of these squads:

NU Projections:

Note that “last week” actually represents the projections I shared two weeks ago.  You can see in the game-by-game that Michigan, Indiana, MSU, and Illinois especially are all looking a little better in terms of NU’s likelihood of winning.  Unfortunately a lot of this is being wiped out by improved results from PSU and Minnesota, which look much tougher statistically after the last two weeks.  As a result, the wins distribution has moved very little from last time out:  some slight increases in the 7 and 8 win columns, but nothing significant.

While a win this week would likely push NU into the official Top 25 rankings, it will probably have little impact on the Scuzz model’s expectations:  the Wildcats are a huge favorite, as you can see above.  On the podcast this week, John talked about how bad IU’s defense has been… here you can see it statistically – essentially a straight line from week 10 last year, though today, over 310 pts allowed per 100 possessions.  The Scuzz model average for all teams is around 220, so IU is about 30% worse than average.

You can also see that now with the UMass game excluded, IU’s profile drops in that 3^rd week of 2012 (rather than an increase, we see the offense drop off)…. That is due to an adjustment I made to account for the Tre Roberson injury.  Interestingly enough, the following week against Ball State, the offense performed pretty much as the Roberson-adjusted data point would indicate.

This graph tells you one last thing:  IU’s defense gives up almost twice as many points per possession as its offense is able to score.  This is fantastic news for a Cats team who will force IU to throw the ball with their 2^nd and 3^rd string QBs.

Big Ten Predictions:

To preview the conference overall, I’ve prepared just a couple quick charts to indicate the Scuzz Models picks in each division.  First the leaders, where the model still really believes in Wisconsin.  Some of this is the way I blend efficiencies from the prior year, but some of it is also due to the Badger defense, which is outpacing last year’s squad enough to take some of the edge off the plummeting UW offense.  OSU is a strong second, with little chance for the other four to pull even at this stage.

The Legends division still resembles the free-for-all we thought it would be.  Michigan and Nebraska are neck and neck, but 5 of the 6 teams have reasonable chances of finishing first.  I expect that a Minnesota win this week vs. Iowa would start to move the needle for the Gophers, who have not performed well enough yet to outweigh last year’s disaster ratings.

Picks Around the Country: 

All games vs. Spread: 93-85 

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2

Had to take week 4 off for some travel, but maybe it was a good thing… the model was not great that week.  Still over 50% for the year vs. the spread though.  Here are this week’s picks:

Wisconsin (+11.5) at Nebraska:   The model has been over estimating the Badgers all year, but this line befuddles me.  Wisconsin lost a close game on the road to Oregon State, while Nebraska got crunched by UCLA (who subsequently lost to Oregon St).  The communitive property of college football tells us these teams are not separated by two scores (really, we have one good rushing team, one good defensive team, and a lot of question marks, which leads me to think close low scoring affair… or Wisc wakes up and blows them out).  Scuzz model favors Wisc by 1.

Texas (-2) at Oklahoma State:  I don’t love this pick because it means trusting the Longhorns, but at the same time Arizona was able to slow down and outscore OSU (and then got shutout and lapped by the Ducks).  I know OSU has a good home field advantage, but I think Texas is due in this series (and say what you will about their QB situation, they have a strong D).  Model likes UT by 7.  (I’ve just learned UT will be missing 4 players including the kicker… still rolling w this pick though).

West Virgina (-11.5) vs. Baylor:   WVU has not stopped on offense.  The “air raid” is in full effect, and Geno Smith looks awesome.  On the other side is Baylor, who lost so much talent but has benefited thus far from weaker matchups.  I and the model expect WVU to smash them in this game. 

UTSA (-1) at New Mexico State:  the Road-Runners are unproven yet at the FBS level, but they are probably the best of the 4 teams that moved up from FCS this year (currently 4-0).  New Mexico State is the worst team in FBS.  Scuzz model loves UTSA (mostly because they have a ton of returning players)… seems reasonable that they have a shot to win.

Oregon (-28) at Washington State:  Uh… has anyone been watching Oregon?  Their O is still explosive and their D is better than ever. The model says 36 points and I don’t think that’s enough.  Oh and Wash St. lost to Colorado last week.   At home.

The Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt: 

Two more weeks and two more major competitors gone.  USC and now Oklahoma have joined the one-loss crowd and two new teams have joined this weekly tracker – Notre Dame and Louisiana Tech.  The story here though is Alabama… 75% chance of going undefeated now, which frankly doesn’t seem off – they of course have tough games, but nobody appears to be in the same league as them (and LSU’s tight win over Auburn has really hurt their profile).  As for Alabama’s potential opponent?  I like Florida State’s chances – they’ve already beaten Clemson, and while the ‘Noles have tough games against Virginia Tech and Florida, the other prime candidates have much tougher matchups;  Oregon would be the one team you could argue has an easier road, especially considering Stanford’s loss last night.