West Lot Pirates Podcast

#B1GCats:

This grueling NU season is finally over. Thankfully, the Cats ended with a win vs. Illinois (cause that would’ve been embarrassing… thanks Rodger) keeping the LOLHat in Evanston, and providing a small building block for next year. Unsurprisingly, we got conservative with a 10 point lead in the first half at IL, did the same in the second half, and came very close to blowing yet ANOTHER game in the waning minutes. I long for the last drive vs MSU in 2012 as a means to close games, i.e. throwing the ball. It’s not like Trevor wasn’t having his best game of the season on Saturday… 6 runs to end the game is just mind-numbing, considering everything that has befallen this team in ’13. Regarding the good side of the offensive output (the pass game), I retweeted these on Saturday, but a quick transcript of John’s text messages from the close of that game:

– Whoa did you see that catch #14 made? I wonder if he was a big recruit.
– Trevor’s yardage ranks by game: #1 ill, #2 cal, #3 cuse, and #4 OSU. Huh.
– 44 attempts today. Minn + iowa + nebraska: 59 attempts

I think you can see John’s point. These facts remain true next year: we have an awesome receiver corp, a QB that can sling the ball, and enough talent in the backfield (Marknado) to keep defenses honest. Pounding the ball up the gut to “establish our offense” is a great football line, but to me looks like a square-peg to round-hole situation for our personnel. When we attacked teams through the air (see above) the results were positive. Yes, the oline, WRs, and QBs can all improve, but the playcalling, game plan, and coaching during the week also need work. That said, lets all take a deep breath now (me included). I won’t call for any heads here – but I think we’re all at least asking for a different approach — the same thing all over again will not sit well w NU Nation. By the way, if you’re looking for something to be excited about… this defense comes back pretty much intact next year. The offense just needs to pull its weight and be smart. NU will be in great shape if that happens.

BCS Fun:

Well, I said it last week – no way we get through the Rivalry Saturday w all those undefeated teams… one Alabama and Fresno State later, we’re down to three teams with no losses, and very few happy campers (the B1G and FSU who gets to dodge the Tide). I won’t waste time going over the obvious, but here are a couple fun BCS scenarios to think about when you decide your rooting interests this weekend:

Alabama in the title game: Say Mizzou barely beats Auburn and Ohio State loses. Would voters keep Alabama ranked ahead of the Tigers in both polls like they are today? I certainly would. Lucking into the Bama-FSU matchup everyone has been salivating over for two months would be a coup for the TV folks. Also, there is precedent for this type of thing in the past (see Bama ’11, LSU ’07, Nebraska ’01, etc).

NIU vs Central Florida: It’s unlikely given the probable championship participants, but similar to a few years ago when BCS busters Boise St and TCU were matched up in the Fiesta, these two teams could be relegated to a “2nd tier” BCS matchup. This would happen during the “reshuffle” section of the BCS selection process, when they look at who each bowl choose, and decide whether it will make enough money or not. Fact that Orange bowl prob gets first pick of at-large teams to replace FSU excludes this from being a real possibility.

Oregon in the BCS: Shut out of the P12 title game, the Ducks would be back in play with an NIU collapse in the Mac Championship, carnage in the B12, or a MSU romp in the B1G title (that includes most of OSU’s stars getting injured). Wouldn’t it be fun to see Bama-Oregon in the Sugar bowl, the game we all couldn’t live without back in late September?

Mack Attack: The Texas Longhorns, left for dead months ago, will be playing clearly diminished-by-injuries Baylor team that barely beat TCU last weekend. Their win, plus an Oklahoma State collapse vs their rival (cause that’s never happened before) would put Mack Brown in the BCS (and would likely give Oregon a berth as well, by knocking out any chance of a 2nd B12 team). Stranger things have happened.

Rematch: In entirely appropriate fashion, Alabama and Auburn play a rematch after OSU and FSU flub their respective title games. This is what I’m pulling for… in part because of the historical significance of one state winning the title 6 years in a row, but also because it would be the most fitting end to the BCS era.

Some other fun potential matchups include Duke-Louisville in the Russell Athletic bowl (not as exciting as basketball), MSU-Stanford playing in the 1952 Rose bowl, and Fresno State taking on USC in Vegas.

Officially, here are the Scuzz model’s projected chances for various National Championship matchups. I believe there are only 5 teams that can make the title game, no matter what happens on Saturday. Note that it is no guarantee that Mizzou leapfrogs Alabama in the standings with a win over Auburn, so I’ve listed them as OR in two potential matchups. Crazy that they could also face one another for the title.

Also, based on Scuzz Model projections and some of the bowl projections on ESPN, here are the likely B1G bowl matchups going into this weekend:

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 534-153 (77.7%)
ATS: 388-272 (58.8%)
Blog Picks: 39-21 (65.0%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1
Week 10: No Picks
Week 11: 4-0
Week 12: 3-1
Week 13: 2-3
Week 14: 1-4

Catastrophe. I’ve been out of sync for two weeks now, and this past one was terrible. I have been noting the difficulties of prediction during the waning weeks of the year, but that was pathetic. I have no excuse either, cause the Scuzz model overall kept going strong. At least my last chance to bet against Charlie panned out. Here are this week’s picks:

Michigan State (+5.5) vs Ohio State: Really looking forward to this game. The worst storyline of this year has been how good Ohio State’s defense is. In case you weren’t watching this past week, they’re not that good. On the other side is one of the best defenses in the country. Hyde and Miller against this front 7 is going to be awesome to watch. This should be a close game… model likes the Spartans to win.

Texas (+13) @ Baylor: After getting burned this past week by Baylor, it’s pretty clear to me that they are unhealthy, even with their RBs back in the fold. It is also clear that Texas beat TCU by 23 in Fort Worth. Yes, this game will be at Baylor, but like the Longhorns to keep it closer than 13.5. (technically, Scuzz model doesn’t agree w me, but I don’t care)

Missouri (+2) vs Auburn: So many theories come into play for this game… emotional let down after big win vs a key rival, physical let down after taking a beating… but the biggest one for me: every Alabama loss (but 1) for the past 6 years has been against a dynamic mobile QB (I can’t call Jordan Jefferson “dynamic” and sleep at night), including two brutal defensive games against Johnny Manziel. Mizzou made Manziel look like Juice Williams last weekend. I really like their D to shut down Nick Marshall and for Auburn’s luck to run out. Model has Missouri by 5.

strong>#B1GCats:

Well the good news is that it doesn’t really hurt anymore. That said, this weekend’s game becomes NU’s last chance at some small sense of redemption and redirection, headed toward next year. When you compare common opponents, all of Illinois’ losses are worse than ours, save Wisconsin, but the location of that game I think is meaningful (we played in Madison, Illinois was at home). NU also matches up well against IL – defensively & with our running game. The biggest question to me, is can NU rally around itself, in this miserably disappointing season? Are the coaches & players still unified? I tend to think yes — this is a strong program, Fitz has great relationships with his players, and there is enough dislike for Illinois to be a focal point during the preparation. However, based on the last 6 weeks, there has been zero confidence running through this team or these players; on the opposite side, Illinois got their first B1G win in two and a half years last week. I’ll call this an uphill battle, even though we are favored. The model sees this as a toss-up… in my heart I know we can win, but I’ll be nauseous and uncomfortable till the final second ticks off the clock.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 493-135 (78.5%)
ATS: 357-247 (59.1%)
Blog Picks: 38-17 (69.1%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1
Week 10: No Picks
Week 11: 4-0
Week 12: 3-1
Week 13: 2-3

The model was strong last week, though I picked poorly. That UCLA game in particular upset me, cause the Bruins really should’ve won / covered. I also didn’t have the stones to pick Oklahoma State or Minnesota. C’est la vie. This week the rivalries will likely hurt the model’s effectiveness, but that’s never stopped me from making picks before. Here are this week’s picks:

Kansas State (-16.5) @ Kansas: I’m saddened to think this may be the last chance to bet against Charlie Weis in college football. Model has KState by 25.

Baylor (-13) @ TCU: In the first of two very similar picks, I think Baylor comes back strong this weekend against TCU. The Frogs are a solid team, but they just don’t have the weapons, or the home field advantage to do to Baylor what OSU did. It also will be relatively nice temp-wise in DFW this weekend. Scuzz model favors the Bears by 20.

Oregon (-21.5) vs Oregon State: Usually I wouldn’t touch a rivalry game like this, but I think Oregon is frustrated, angry, and playing at home. I also think OSU lacks type of running game that has given Oregon trouble in their two losses. Model likes the Ducks by an additional 3 points.

Pittsburgh (+3) vs Miami: I never love the cold weather argument, but with the Miami Hurricanes it seems to happen every year — they go north late and struggle. This year, not only are they headed to colder climes, but Pittsburgh is a good team, and Miami is missing their best player. I like Pitt to surprise with a win in this game – the model still favors Miami, but likes Pitt to cover.

UAB (-14.5) vs Southern Miss: Last week I highlighted the model’s performance on EMU, and this week will similarly figure in on Southern Mississippi. This team is 0-11, and has covered only twice this year. The model is 10-1 picking on S. Miss, and likes UAB to win by 3 TDs this weekend.

Other Notables:
Minnesota (+15) @ Michigan State
Indiana (-20) vs Purdue
Penn State (+24.5) @ Wisconsin
Michigan (+14.5) vs Ohio State
Iowa (+3) @ Nebraska
Duke (+6.5) @ North Carolina
Florida (+27.5) vs FSU
UCLA (+3) @ USC
Texas (-4.5) vs Texas Tech
Missouri (-4) vs Texas A&M
Alabama (-11) @ Auburn

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
As far as I’m concerned, everyone is at risk this week, save NIU (who won last night) and Fresno State who plays a weak opponent. The fact is that weird things happen during rivalry week… Are we likely to have all 5 of these teams move through to next weekend unscathed? Yes. But I bet it doesn’t happen….

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#B1GCats:

What have we done to deserve this? There were lots of small positives that came through on Saturday, but at the end of the day none of it mattered cause we’re still losing. NU nation is resigned to saying home this bowl season, which is legit giving the task ahead next week. I will offer one small piece of hope for next week… last year, after a heart breaking loss to Michigan the Cats rallied the next week to beat MSU. We are good enough to beat the Spartans but we have to get out of our own way. Lets move on to this week’s picks.

This Week’s Picks:

Straight up: 453-122 (78.8%)
ATS: 325-226 (59.0%)
Blog Picks: 36-14 (72.0%)

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 5-0
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-1
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 3-1
Week 10: No Picks
Week 11: 4-0
Week 12: 3-1

Last week the model came back to 50%, though the blog picks continued to do well. This week, probably in part due to several 1-AA games, it was harder to decide on games. Here are this week’s picks:

Houston (-3.5) vs Cincinnati: While not the same as the Sumlin years, this Houston team is strong. They gave Louisville and UCF a tougher time than anticipated, and have been getting better as the season progresses. Cincinnati has been more erratic, and I like Houston to beat them at home by more than a FG. Scuzz model likes Houston by 11.

UCLA (+2.5) vs ASU: This Bruins team has found a resurgence of production from their throwback runningback who is playing both ways. Just to remind everyone once again… ASU doesn’t have a good run D (everyone talks about their Dline… it’s good at rushing the passer, not stopping the rusher). The model barely favors UCLA against that spread, but I think the last couple weeks make the Bruins the favorite at home.

Bowling Green (-24.5) @ Eastern Michigan: EMU is one of two teams the Scuzz Model has not missed a pick on this season. You can guess which way the model has leaned vs the spread. BGU by 33.

Michigan (+6.5) @ Iowa: As much as it pains me to write this… Michigan getting a win as they did last week, IMO, will elevate their game against Iowa. Gardner was sporting a big pout before the contest vs NU started, and I think the OT victory will energize his game somewhat. The model still favors Iowa, but only by 3.

Texas A&M (+4) vs LSU: This pick is for Lacombe. I’m buying in on Johnny Manziel basically playing to win the Heisman this weekend. LSU is a better team overall, and has the offense to keep up with A&M, but I think this goes to the wire and ends up a 1-3 point game. Model likes LSU by 3, but I think A&M wins.

Other Notables:
BC (pk) @ Maryland
UCF (-17) vs Rutgers
Miss St (-1.5) @ Arkansas
KState (-4) vs Oklahoma
Oklahoma State (+8.5) vs Baylor
Illinois (-7) @ Purdue
Vandy (+3) @ Tennessee
Nebraska (+2) @ Penn State

Already Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt:
With NIU winning again, knocking off Toledo on the road earlier in the week, Baylor is the only team really at risk this week. I guess OSU could trip over IU’s offense, but I think it’s unlikely, since they’ll score 100 points on that D. Next week obviously is the biggie, with rivalry matchups all over the place.