Scuzz Model: A series of unfortunate events
#B1GCats:
Well crap. Cat fans across the globe find themselves, once again, asking questions and pulling out hair. That was a very painful game to watch last week. As I mentioned on the podcast though, it was not nearly as painful to re-watch. The things that went bad came in bunches and at the worst possible moments. Two missed blocks on consecutive plays inside the 25; one step in the wrong direction against a go-route; a non-call block in the back on a critical 3rd and 12 completion. But it was the defensive revival in the second half and the offense putting together some drives that made me sleep well after watching a second time. There were many positives in that game, and all we can ask now is that the team build on those positives and get better going into the Northern Illinois game, which should be a more favorable matchup, albeit still a tough one given the way they run and play run-D, and losing yet another of our playmakers.
I just read a great piece on Lake The Posts regarding a reader email pointing out the terrible start of the 2009 season. Many of us (myself included) think about that season as the height of our offensive passing game, probably because of the way it ended (wins vs Iowa, Wisconsin, & then the Outback bowl.) We’ve cited 2009 as evidence when we’ve talked on this podcast about offensive conservatism, and how we need to release the kraken, get back to our passing ways and pile up the points. Well after reviewing the numbers, I may need to step back and give this current coaching staff some more credit…
The most efficient scoring offense NU has fielded in the past six years was 2011, followed by 2012. Last year’s offensive in total was actually right on par with the Kafka and final CJ Bacher seasons of 2009 and 2008. The other interesting observation about those years: NU eclipsed 35 points once in ’08, three times in ’09 in each of the first four games last year before the team went off the rails. Who was calling the offense in those games? Mick McCall. Who was at the helm of the offense in the some of the best games from an output perspective since 2012 (IU ‘12, Cal ‘13, IL ‘13?) Trevor Siemian. Maybe, Fitz and co deserve some recognition, specifically around the retooling of the defense over the past three seasons (downward trajectory in opponent scoring efficiency since mid-way through 2011,) and the fact that NU’s offense has never scored as efficiently as it did in very recent history. Frankly, these data points should give us a lot of hope. Look at 2009 on the week by week chart below – the offensive and defensive efficiency then are basically identical to what they are for NU right now. While we tear our hair out play-by-play because we bleed so much purple, perhaps the current Fitz formula is a little closer to what we long for and recall from recent glories than we realize.
Unfortunately, rancor has developed between the fans, media, and coaches (as can often happen in sports,) and I think that has colored everything in such a negative light for the last twelve months. I believe there is cause for criticism of the staff, particularly in the way they approach some of the key decision points that arise during games – this was articulated perfectly by The Daily this week – and it is clear the preparation and game speed were not where they needed to be in last week’s opener. Stepping back and considering everything that occurred in the last twelve months, perhaps the Cats are much closer to where we think we want them to be, than it feels or appears.
This Week’s Picks:
This year’s stats:
Straight up: 25-13 (65.8%)
ATS: 14-10 (36.8%)
Blog Picks: 1-4 (20%)
What a terrible week for the Scuzz Model. To be fair, most prognosticators got drilled in week one… all the conventional wisdom was out the window. Scuzz Model did have some great calls (Auburn, Temple, UTSA, Wisc), but had many near misses (Tulane, North Texas, Navy, UConn, UCF, Purdue), and a whole lot of big misses (Bama, Bowling Green, Wazzou, NU, Texas A&M, FSU). Here’s hoping we do better in this week’s picks:
Note – this is going up late, and I’m really ticked I can no longer pick UTSA to cover vs Arizona, which they did last night (and almost won).
Michigan State (+12) @ Oregon: This pick terrifies me. It’s based on three things – MSU being similar to Stanford, Oregon’s diminishing presence on defense in the last couple seasons, and most importantly, my belief that until Pat Narduzzi leaves, MSU has a significant coaching advantage over everyone they play. The model sees this as a toss up… I think Oregon still wins, but MSU should be able to keep it reasonable.
Pitt (-4.5) @ BC: The Pitt Panthers, recent victims of poor coaching and fleeting coaches, look like a potential sleeper in the ACC this year (at least until the title game) as Paul Chryst gets more and more comfortable. They have a powerful run game, and I really like their chances to smoother a rebuilding BC. The model favors Pitt by 8.
Michigan (+4.5) vs Notre Dame: I keep going back and forth on this one, as both teams have something going for them (Golson for ND, new Offense for Mich). Ultimately though, this game has been close for years, I expect both teams to score, and for it to come down to a 3 or 4 point deficit in the end (someone kicks a FG to go up 3, the other scores a TD to go up 4, and it comes down to the final drive). The model likes Michigan to win, but really we’re just taking the points here.
Stanford (-3) vs USC: Too early, IMO, to go all in on USC yet… I don’t believe they have rebuilt their depth to go toe-to-toe with a heavy like Stanford. The Cardinal, similar to Oregon, are probably not going to ever be quite the same as they were under the previous coach, but they are still fantastic, deep, and hard to prepare for. Model likes Stanford by a TD.
Auburn (-30) vs San Jose State: If it ain’t broke… Auburn came through for me twice last week – winning big but not by too much. Their offense is maybe even better than it was last year, seeing that they have real QB depth behind Nick Marshall. This week, they get to start with Marshall, and play an even weaker team than Arkansas. I won’t type how much the model favors the Tigers – it’s embarrassing.
Other Notables::
Texas (+2) vs BYU
Middle TN (+17.5) @ MN
Temple (+4) vs Navy
Akron (+15) @ PSU
Va Tech (+11) @ OSU
Ga State (-1.5) vs NM State
Finally Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt – Thundering Toward an 8-Team Playoff?
We almost had pandemonium last week as Ok State made everyone’s predictions for that marquee game go awry. We also almost had Wisconsin leaping into the upper half of this chart, but alas they can’t throw the ball.
The same 4 teams are still heading the Scuzz Model’s playoff prediction – Bama has dropped off in likelihood of going undefeated, mostly due to the performance of Ole Miss and Auburn, but there is little reason to not favor them at this point. Several teams from last week’s conversation that blew up include Houston, South Carolina, & Wisconsin; UCLA looked pretty far from a team likely to make a run, despite their victory. Next week you will either see MSU or Oregon get a big boost – they are huge obstacles for one another in this chase. BYU, Stanford, and Michigan all might show up next week as well, pending their weekend outcomes.
Episode 186: Cal 31-Northwestern 24
Really? We’re doing this again? We spend some time digesting the opening game loss to Cal before looking ahead to Northern Illinois. We are your premier Northwestern Sports Podcast! You can download the episode from iTunes, Stitcher Radio or directly from here.
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Episode 185: Game Week!
At long last, it’s game week! We preview this weekend’s 2014 season opener against Cal and then look at the rest of the Big Ten’s opening weekend. We are your premier Northwestern Sports Podcast! You can download the episode from iTunes, Stitcher Radio or directly from here.
Be sure to check out our Facebook page! Head over to Facebook and “Like” us there for all the latest updates. You can also follow us on Twitter and join the conversation!
We really want to hear from our listeners on what you would like to hear from us. Please email us or comment on the blog or call our voicemail line at 847-231-2287 (CATS) and let us know what you’d like to hear from us.
Check out all our contact info on the sidebar of the blog page. Call us, tweet us, leave a comment on the blog.
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Scuzz Model: 2014 Kickoff
#B1GCats:
Cat fans, it’s time to dust ourselves off and get back up for the next round of the fight. Last year was plain awful to go through as a fan; but if you squint (and you don’t need to squint very hard), that 5-7 record turns into 7-5 or even 8-4 very very quickly. Note that NU achieved that record with the Marknado missing, 2 injured quarterbacks, and some really bad play-calling tendencies. Well, one of those things won’t be fixed in 2014… one will pretty much be up to the football gods, and the o-line to some degree… but the last really should improve this year for a litany of reasons (check out our most recent podcast for the details).
The Scuzz model sees NU as a middle of the road team this year, and that is without any impact from our expectations around play-calling and offensive rhythm. There are some pretty low expectations out there for NU, but this model sees the Cats as a 6 or 7 win squad, even with the big losses on offense. “Last Week” below is truly the projection from a couple weeks back, before adjusting for the losses of Venric, Christian Jones, and Sean McEvilly. Overall, their loss is worth a decrease of about 0.5 expected wins. Contrast that to Braxton Miller departure which bleeds OSU of 2.5 expected wins. How is that possible you ask? Well the fact is, that NU’s numbers last year were reasonably good, even without Mark. Again, they were 3 plays from being 8-4! And, they did that with an offensive efficiency (unadjusted) that was well below the NCAA average, and was 30% below NU’s stats in 2012. I realize that sounds overly optimistic, and maybe stats are for losers, but these stats think NU will be bowling and should the other two things that killed the Cats last year get fixed (QB health & play calling), we should see some seriously improved offensive efficiency and that give NU a chance to make some legitimate noise in the West. In fact, if NU’s offensive efficiency gets back to 2012 levels (approx 7 addl pts per game), the model pegs the Cats at 9-3 on the year.
P.S. the thing you should take away from above, is that neither Wisconsin nor Nebraska are looking as strong as many outlets believe them to be… particularly Nebraska, who I think is due for a bad year…. That said, even if NU does have a big jump up this year, we will have a tough time beating out Iowa for the division crown given their insanely favorable schedule.
This Week’s Picks:
Last year’s stats:
Straight up: 564-172 (76.6%)
ATS: 401-303 (57.0%)
Blog Picks: 40-23 (63.5%)
Last year ended up being the best year for the Scuzz Model yet, and a solid year for the weekly blog picks as well. We’re back at it this year. Note the record for the blog picks is based on my 5 “games of the week”, which I choose based on how my predictions vary from the published lines and the general status of each team. There are occasions where I can’t find a 5th game that I feel comfortable about, but I always include some extra picks based on the model that I think look reasonable, or are just interesting to me (i.e. Big Ten games).
Here are this week’s picks:
Rice (+21) @ Notre Dame: So many things with this game. ND’s disarray, Golsen layoff, inflated ND lines, and then there’s last year’s opener, when Rice made Texas A&M look bad. With all the turnover on ND’s defense, particularly the loss of their entire D-line, Rice should be able to run and stay in this. The model favors the Irish by only 13.
Bowling Green (-7.5) @ W. Kentucky: BGU was an incredible team last year, particularly in their run game and defense. They may drop off a little having lost some defenders, but the Hilltoppers lose a lot more, including their coach. I like BGU to really roll in this game – the model favors them by 33.
Washington State (-8) vs Rutgers: If teams are getting lines like this against Rutgers, it’s gonna be a fun year. We’re all waiting for Wazzou to really put the Mike Leach offense together, and I think at the very least they continue to progress in ‘14. Rutgers, as we’ve discussed on the podcast, is in trouble this year on defense. The Scuzz Model favors WSU by 19.
Florida State (-17.5) vs OSU: This one seems pretty straight-forward. OSU lost just about everyone, and FSU is the presumptive #1 team in the country. Great stat from Phil Steele – OSU lost 32 lettermen, and only returns 38… that is crazy, plus then the hype and pressure of the opening game in Jerry World against the defending champs. The biggest thing I noticed about Winston and FSU last year, was their ability to show up in big games and in the spotlight. This game checks those boxes… I think the model is spot on favoring the Seminoles by 32.
Auburn (-20.5) vs Arkansas: So apparently they are excited for year 2 of Bret Bielema in Arkansas. I can’t imagine why. Last year, the Razorbacks were decimated by everyone with a pulse and lost to Rutgers as well. They fell to Auburn by 18, and this year have to travel to Jordan-Hare to face an Auburn team that returns most of its big dogs, plus is entering year 2 with Malzahn at the helm. Many expect Auburn to drop off this year in wins, and I am no different… that’s based on how many close calls they had last year… a 35-17 bruising of Arkansas does not fall into that category, and both the model and I expect the Tigers to destroy Arkansas as a way to set the stage going into this season. Scuzz model favors Auburn by 31.
Bonus Picks:
North Texas (+25.5) @ Texas: I’m not comfortable making this an official pick, just cause Charlie Strong is an X-factor, and may impact a huge jump for Texas if he can get his players to play at potential (like he’s done everywhere else he’s coached). Strong’s impact may take time, however, and UT has been disappointing for a few seasons now while N. Texas looks to have a strong squad here. The Longhorns will win this game, but I like to think Mean Green pride keeps the score close. The model says NT can keep it within 3 TDs.
Utah State (+6) @ Tennessee: I can’t really pick this, cause the model sees it as a push, but I love Utah State in this game. Chuckie Keeton is back for this Aggie team that almost upset USC last year and Wisconsin & Auburn in the years before that. I think they finally reel in a big fish … the Vols have some good skill players, but have complete turnover on both lines.
Other Notables:
FAU (+21) @ Nebraska
Bama (-26) vs West Virginia
Wisconsin (+5) vs LSU
Purdue (-10) vs W. Michigan
Navy (+14) vs OSU
S. Car (-10.5) vs Texas A&M
Finally Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt – Thundering Toward an 8-Team Playoff?
The BCS is dead, gone, and long forgotten. The crystal football has been replaced by a steel football-shaped tube (at least on one end), and while the Florida State Seminoles reign supreme for now, their path to a repeat is much more difficult this year in having to go through 2 of the top 4 teams in CFB to win it all (although the ACC looks less daunting this season).
Despite the long years of the BCS telling us otherwise, going undefeated remains an important and impressive achievement, and coincidentally is the best way to book your ticket to a Playoff spot. Looking at the landscape laid out by the Scuzz model below, the teams with the best shot of making the playoff are FSU, Bama, Baylor, and Michigan State.
Will you look at that though? One of these pesky non-Power-Five schools may have the audacity to go undefeated in the first year of the Playoff, and make everyone lose their marbles! No doubt Marshall’s 2014 Thundering Herd is a stacked football team, but unfortunately their schedule is just the opposite… Phil Steele ranks it #125 in all of CFB (Houston plays somewhat more interesting competition as part of the Big East (AAC), but I have much less faith in them staying un-blemished, especially having to visit BYU). The 125th ranked schedule is bad, and it means that Marshall have no prayer of making the playoff over even 1-loss power-5 squads (unless Condi did a Randy-Moss-like-stint at Marshall and nobody knows about it). Now, if four 1-loss teams get in ahead of Marshall, you can bet that legislators from the great state of West Virginia will get up in arms (just like the senators from Utah & Idaho that have preceded them in CFB purgatory), and join the chorus of voices that will surely be demanding an 8-team playoff with one guaranteed non-power-5 spot. I bet you by 2018 we’ll have that format (or at least an NFL-style 6 team playoff), lest CFB risk its anti-trust status; who knows, between O’Bannon, Kesler, and CAPA, that ship may sail much sooner.
Regardless, it will be fun to see who can make this playoff in year one, and participate in one of the greatest money-making moments in college football history…. The games should be pretty damn fun as well.
Episode 184: Summer Previews: Northwestern
As we hit the home stretch before the season kicks off, we take a look at the 2014 Northwestern squad. We also discuss the injuries and suspensions at Ohio St. and Notre Dame. We are your premier Northwestern Sports Podcast! You can download the episode from iTunes, Stitcher Radio or directly from here.
Be sure to check out our Facebook page! Head over to Facebook and “Like” us there for all the latest updates. You can also follow us on Twitter and join the conversation!
We really want to hear from our listeners on what you would like to hear from us. Please email us or comment on the blog or call our voicemail line at 847-231-2287 (CATS) and let us know what you’d like to hear from us.
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Thanks so much for listening and Go Cats!
