Scuzz Model: Bye Week Picks & B1G Scenarios

Big Ten Scenarios:

Northwestern’s B1G title picture is not rosy.  The problem:  Nebraska.  They need to lose twice and the Cats need to win out.  Only about 2% of the time does the model return a scenario where the Cats finish ahead of Nebraska in the Legends.  However, you’ll recall from my post earlier in the week that the model also only gives NU a 15% chance of beating Michigan.  If we limit to scenarios where the Cats win 6 conference games (i.e. win out) there is a 41% chance of finishing higher than Nebraska.  As such, our fate may not entirely be in our hands, but is within our grasp.

Here are the probabilities for each team to finish in first or tied for first in the two divisions:

No real surprises other than the terrible state Michigan State is in.  They are particularly hurt by the loss to Michigan, who would have to lose twice more for State to overcome them (whereas we only need to beat Michigan and win out).  On the other side, OSU is a lock to pull out that division, while Wisconsin still looks like the best bet for second place despite needing to travel to PSU and host the Buckeyes.  With their QB Stave out now, I think the Badgers will be hard pressed to pull off anything more than  a backdoor trip to the B1G Title game.

Lastly, let’s look at how our favorites – Nebraska and Wisconsin – shape up for the rest of the year, game by game:

 This really highlights the importance of the MSU-Nebraska game this weekend, from NU’s perspective.  This week and next are the two key weeks for Nebraska to lose games.  Could they bomb against either MN or Iowa?  Sure, but the likelihood is not good.  Wisconsin on the other hand, really just needs to beat Indiana.  They won’t feel good about themselves losing to either PSU or OSU especially, but they’ll have another division title to ease that pain.

Picks Around the Country:

All games vs. Spread: 246-195

Week 1:  4-1
Week 2:  2-3
Week3:   3-2
Week5:   3-2
Week6:   4-1
Week7:   4-1
Week8:   5-0
Week9:   3-2

An alright week last week – big whiff on the Michigan-Nebraska game… wish I had been bold enough to take Ole Miss on the road vs. Arkansas.  Here are this week’s picks (note – I didn’t include the Oregon-USC game cause I think the Ducks will smash the Trojans, and that’s at odds w the Scuzz model):

UCLA (-3) vs Arizona:  Letdown alert!  The Wildcats are coming off their biggest win in years to travel to meet the Bruins who are really not a bad team at all.  Scuzz model has UCLA by 7.

Ohio State (-24) vs Illinois:  I just love to pick against Illinois.  They could lose this game by 50.  Don’t think Urban Meyer is above that.  The model likes OSU by 27… I just don’t see how IL scores any points or stops OSU in Columbus, with or without Braxton Miller.

Pitt (+18.5) at Notre Dame:  Similar to Arizona, the Irish are due for a down week after a huge win.  They also have had trouble scoring big this year, and now are supposed to beat Pittsburgh by more than 2 TDs?  Seems like a stretch.

San Jose State (-16.5) at Idaho:  I know nothing about these teams, other than the Spartans are 6-2 and Idaho is one of the worst teams in FBS.  Scuzz model says SJSU by 27.

LSU (+8) vs Alabama:  This line has moved even further toward the Tide by now, and while I believe Bama could beat the Kansas City Chiefs (who own da Chiefs?), I also think this is going to be a darn tough game for them to win by 8.  Still like them to pull this out, despite whatever smoke and mirrors Les Miles employs on Saturday, but think LSU will keep it close.


Posted on November 2, 2012, in Podcast. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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