Blog Archives
Scuzz Model: The Best Day Since….
#B1GCats:
It’s hard for me to describe Saturday’s gargantuan win over Penn State. Joy, relief, redemption… all these words apply, but they do not really begin to describe the impact of that win. I contend that was this NU fan’s best day since Jan 1, 2013. We talked about it briefly on this week’s pod – while this was a great win and a desperately needed win, it was not necessarily an important win. We are all hopeful this will represent a turning point in the season and signal that NU is moving in the right direction again (even a loss this weekend to Wisconsin will not derail that, IMO)… but this was not a program defining win, like the Gator Bowl was, or like a victory against OSU last season would’ve been.
This is not meant to undercut the impact of winning that game, which I believe is different. The dominant way the Cats finished this game stood out in terms of outcomes that were not in doubt prior to the final whistle. Yes, we blew out Syracuse last year, and Illinois in ‘12, but the combination of the opponent, the location, and the way we finished make this performance one of the top three in the entire Fitz era, save the Gator bowl and perhaps 2009 at Iowa (the Wooten-Stanzi game.)
Ultimately, Penn State may prove to be a middling Big Ten team. We may end up 4-8. But to me, this game is step 3 in the process that began against Michigan State in 2012. After letting leads against PSU, Neb, & Michigan slip away that year (albeit leads were we closer and closer to maintaining), the Cats shut down a potential game-tying drive from the Spartans to finally finish a game against a tough opponent. Six weeks later, they improved on that effort against Mississippi State. This Penn State game was a natural extension of that “learning to win” process, which was derailed by last year’s brutal combo of injuries, OSU-induced malaise, and loss of confidence.
Do not lump me in with those who are describing this as Fitz finally winning the Fitz way – i.e. with defense. Frankly, he has been doing that since 2006 when he took over. Yes, CJ Bacher and Dan Persa were prolific in running the spread, but when this team has been at its best (’09, ’12) it has been because the defense was stout, and the offense could control the ball. The difference on Saturday, in the Gator Bowl, and in ‘12 against MSU is that the defense was excellent in critical situations. The other side of that coin is the offensive performance – to continue winning this season we will need that offense to keep progressing.
As has been discussed ad nauseum, the Cats must throw the ball to win this year. On Saturday, just as we predicted last week, the Cats opened up the offense through the air. Unlike the Cal game, the WRs (Tony Jones in particular) flashed great hands. Unlike the NIU game, the O-line played well and kept Trevor protected, even when PSU brought extra pressure. Trevor continues, in my opinion, to play at a decent level – he is missing passes but is clearly more in sync with Shuler & Vitale, and is more comfortable with his security blanket (Jones) back on the field.
The seam pass to Trevor’s left is one of the best he throws, and the coaches are doing a good job scheming options to play seam passes, slants, bubble screens & flat passes off one another. All that activity has given Trev some real opportunities downfield as well. Generally, based on the last three game charts, Trev is much more comfortable throwing to the left side of the formation – be it that seam, or when he throws the deep ball 30+ yards downfield (those have almost all been to the left.) If his percentages on boundary throws improve, that will really elevate this offense – that was where he had a lot of success against NIU, but perhaps the bigger faster corners in the Big Ten will ultimately foil those passes; he hit two early against PSU, but was not able to connect after those first two drives. Here is the passing chart for the PSU game:
NU’s stats improved dramatically last week, buoyed in part by the utter collapse in Ann Arbor. The simulation now gives NU a 54% chance of getting to 6 or more wins and becoming bowl eligible.
This Week’s Picks:
This year’s stats:
Straight up: 167-65 (72.0%)
ATS: 111-120 (48.1%)
Blog Picks: 8-17 (32.0%)
Little by little the model finds its way, and I figure out which teams not to bank on. I really shouldn’t have bet against the model on Arkansas, but so it goes. Here are this week’s picks in a banner early season CFB week:
Mississippi State (-1.5) vs Texas A&M: A&M won a tough game against Arkansas last week in a neutral (though really tilted-in-their-favor) location. This week they travel to resurgent Starkville to face the surprising Bulldogs. If that LSU win had come last week, I would be wary of the post-win letdown, but MSU has had a week off to reset for this tough A&M team. The Bulldogs also have a much better defense that Arkansas. The model has MSU by 15.
Maryland (+7.5) vs Ohio State: Last week’s pick against the Buckeyes didn’t go well, but Maryland has a much better defense than Cincinnati, and I just don’t believe in Ohio State yet. Model likes Maryland to pull-off the upset.
Michigan State (-8.5) vs Nebraska: In the matchup of Big Ten powers (cause there aren’t any others) the model thinks MSU has the edge on the Huskers. I agree wholeheartedly for two reasons – 1, Nebraska is a one-dimensional team, and MSU has shown in the past it can shut down their run game… that was also before Neb turned over 4/5s of their oline. 2, I don’t think Nebraska has the horses on defense to keep MSU off the scoreboard – my only real evidence is that they gave up more points to Miami than Duke did. Model has Spartans by 13.
Michigan (+3.5) @ Rutgers: Much like my Iowa pick against Pitt a few weeks back, this is all about vengeful karma. The model thinks Michigan can win this game. Most everyone thinks they will lose. And as a result, I win either way. Truly, I expect Michigan to play better this week, and Rutgers’ QB is still Gary Nova (plus they no longer have their best player, RB Paul James). Model has Michigan by 4.
USC (-11) vs ASU: Who remembers what happened in this game last year? We pretty much all remember the aftermath on the tarmac in Phoenix, but I bet the USC players remember that 2nd half vividly. Given that QB Kelly is likely to miss this game (or will have limited mobility if he plays) I expect the Trojans to romp. Model has them by 25.
Other Notables:
Northwestern (+9.5) vs Wisconsin
TCU (+5) vs Oklahoma
Mississippi (+6) vs Alabama
South Carolina (-5) @ Kentucky
East Carolina (-39.5) vs SMU
Auburn (-8) vs LSU
Finally Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt – Thundering Toward an 8-Team Playoff?
Our first big elimination week has arrived! Marshall, Florida State, & BYU are probably safe… but everyone else has a huge match up this week. The Scuzz Model thinks the MSU-Alabama game is the closest, giving Bama slight edge to win (55%) – most others on the list are around 80% likely to win.
Current Playoff Teams:
FSU, UCLA, Baylor & Bama
Scuzz Model: So You’re Sayin’ There’s a Chance…
#B1GCats:
This week confirmed what we suspected after Week 2: the Big Ten is worse than usual this year. The non-Michigan State Big Ten falls into four categories: Defensive-Disaster (IL, Indiana, Maryland-maybe, OSU-a little,) Offensive-Quagmire (Iowa, NU, Michigan, PSU, Rutgers,) Quarterback-Less (OSU, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska,) and Purdue, which is all three of the other categories. There is no game on Northwestern’s schedule that is out of reach at this point.
A couple of interesting observations from rewatching last week’s game (yes, I’m rewatching these awful games to try to understand our offense outside the emotional tornado that is the live broadcast):
1 – McCall had a pretty decent gameplan. He engineered a lot of favorable 1-on-1 matchups downfield and Trevor executed very well putting the ball into position for the receivers to make a play. When NIU switched to zone, we adapted well and found Prater everywhere. When was the last time we threw 16 balls over 15 yards (in the air – I’m not counting YAC.) Connecting on eight (one which was called back) of these throws and narrowly missing three more is even more impressive – that is an amazing completion percentage for downfield passing. Overall, Trevor was much better this game. If you give him credit for the four completions wiped out by holding (including one defensive holding,) his stats become 31/45 for 302… just shy of 70% comp. Factor in two dropped long balls and we’re talking about a pretty spectacular QB performance. I’m trying something new this year – charting our passing offense… here’s the pass chart for the NIU game… not as many throws to the middle of the field as the Cal game, but a lot of success in that area:
*Please forgive any horizontal mistakes… locations are close, but definitely approximated
2 – I also think NU had an effective run-scheme using the 3-bunch formation with a Tight End to give our RBs some options to the outside. There were several effective runs by all three RBs – the problem is that as the game went on, we started to telegraph with our personnel (as has been documented by the Daily) and worse, we never really threw out of this set. There were a couple of play-actions early in the first drive, but we never went back to it, even after some modest running success. We rarely passed when shifting out of that set to a 3-wide (no bunch) formation as well. I’ll also note we only ran five plays from the Power I, four of which began the drive from inside our 5 yard line. The fifth, an inexplicable call on 2nd and 5 after a torrid stretch of Trevor passes, was horrific and pretty much killed our first drive of the 2nd half, but that power set wasn’t a major factor otherwise for our offense.
3 – The biggest factor was the O-line, which I realize is stating the obvious. Here’s a stat – in all but two drive-ending series the Cats faced an “and-long” situation behind the chains, due to sacks, TFLs, or holds. That’s catastrophic to an offense. I’ve been asking for three years where the screen plays in this offense have gone – not the bubble screen – I’m thinking the plays Trumpy and Persa used to engineer for 22 yards. That would be a great way to take some pressure off the O-line and QB, but we ran only one screen and one draw last Saturday.
So with all that… why do I think this team can turn it around? The problems we face right now are mental: Defensive and QB miscues in Game 1, OL & WR miscues in Game 2. Minimize the self-inflicted wounds, and this team has the talent to compete in this conference. Continued penalties, wild throws, drops, and blown coverage will doom us to another year of saying “what if”.
This Week’s Picks:
This year’s stats:
Straight up: 97-37 (72.4%)
ATS: 51-81 (38.6%)
Blog Picks: 5-10 (33.3%)
Baby steps back to .500. The Scuzz Model got better last week (though not in the state of Oklahoma) so maybe I haven’t totally lost my marbles this year. Here are this week’s picks:
Auburn (-9) @ Kansas State: The Wildcats are plucky, but this is a different level. They haven’t faced a team this strong offensively in the Big 12 in years, and I think this Auburn is even better than last year’s. The model likes Auburn to pull away by almost 2 TDs.
Iowa (+6) @ Pitt: I’m picking this for two reasons… 1) it just feels like a 13-10 snooze-fest of a game and 2) if Iowa beats the spread, I feel good for being right. But if Iowa gets dusted, I feel even better. Model favors Iowa by 1.
Bowling Green (+27) @ Wisconsin: I have no doubt that Wisconsin will win this game, but to win by 27 I think they would have to lean more heavily on Melvin Gordon than they really want to, given the issues in their passing game. If I’m Gary Anderson I probably sit Gordon the 2nd half and nurse a 20 point lead to the finish. The model likes a closer 10-point finish.
Navy (-4.5) vs Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights put up a good fight last week, but are going to be mentally devastated going into this game… and devastated is a terrible frame of mind to defend the option. Lacking a variable for “mentally devastated,” the model still likes Navy by 8.
Michigan (-6) vs Utah: I would really love to be 7 points wrong on this one, folks. Utah, unfortunately, may not be the team to end Brady Hoke’s career as Michigan’s head coach, but wouldn’t it be great if they were? The model likes Michigan by 8 – I think the Wolverines find a way in this game, but lookout when Big Ten season rolls around.
Bonus Pick: NIU (+14.5) @ Arkansas
Call this wishful thinking, but I was pretty impressed with NIU’s front 7 last week, particularly their D-line. We knew they had a stout Run-D coming to Northwestern, and they proved that on the field both against the run and in creating pressure on Trevor. Arkansas has a good running game, but not much else. I think they probably pull away late, but it’s worth the thought that NIU can keep within two TDs of an SEC school. Model has Hogs by 12.
Other Notables:
Minnesota (-7.5) vs San Jose State
Mississippi State (+10) @ LSU
Central Michigan (+5.5 @ Kansas
Michigan (-6) vs Utah
Indiana (+17) vs Missouri
Finally Obsolete BCS Championship Hunt – Thundering Toward an 8-Team Playoff?
Add Georgia to the list of vanquished teams… it must hurt them that much more that Florida is still (inexplicably) undefeated. Not much excitement from last week to this… Auburn makes an appearance on the watchlist, as does Duke who won’t meet FSU until the ACC championship. I really love the idea of Mississippi winning the SEC west, getting Bama and Auburn at home… and then losing to Missouri in the SEC championship game to shut that conference out of the Playoff. It won’t happen that way (1-loss Bama would still make it in), but it’s fun to ponder.
Current Playoff Projection:
1-FSU vs. 4-Bama
2-Baylor vs. 3-BYU
West Lot Pirates Podcast 